DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Well now, that did a lot, didn't it. Look, I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Fed is the black hole at the center of the worldwide banking system. So long as it is withdrawing cash and the ECB and BoJ are either still adding or standing pat, their currencies will fall against the dollar. The reason is simple. There are constantly fewer dollars and the same or more yen and euros. So the dollar's price will continue to rise in yen and euros. The idea that the BoJ can intervene and change that trend by selling USD and buying Yen is a pipedream. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD looks set to go over another cliff as it heads for a measured move target of 0.90, based on its big top breakdown. Here's the very long term view on that. Meanwhile back at the US market, I would say that the ES 24 hour S&P futures are taking aim at the 5 day cycle projection of 3700. But that would be wrong. Because they're already there for all intents and purposes. But don't forget that measured move target of 3660 or so. That's still out there. Meanwhile, back at the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022 What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be September 19, 2022 In the Goldrums September 16, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Gotta watch the 1 minute charts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 So what is the bottom of that channel now? 3650? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 a bear will come out of the woods if it's hungry enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Lee, How are Europeans taking the slide in their currency? What is economic activity like where you are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 The British Pound is going down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, potatohead said: Lee, How are Europeans taking the slide in their currency? What is economic activity like where you are? I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 hours ago, DrStool said: ES 24 hour S&P futures are taking aim at the 5 day cycle projection of 3700. But that would be wrong. Because they're already there for all intents and purposes. But don't forget that measured move target of 3660 or so. That's still out there. Also sport line convergence this hour at 3653, Low so far 3663. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Euro takes aim at .95 USD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 OK. This is bad. Small Comfort for Gold Holders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Measured move implication is 1300. Small Comfort for Gold Holders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 10 Year yield reaches trend resistance convergence. Opportune place for a short term top. If it breaks out above 3.81, all hell gonna break loose. Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French. Do you live in a city more focused on tourism? seems like everything I read, many parts of europe are seeing high inflation and rising discontent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French. Produce prices are skyrocketing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, potatohead said: Do you live in a city more focused on tourism? seems like everything I read, many parts of europe are seeing high inflation and rising discontent. Nice is a very laid back place. It is a wealthy city by European standards, and one of the most popular summer resorts in the world. I noticed many more Americans here than usual this year as the USD has strengthened against the euro. It used to be an anomaly to hear Americans in the street. Now it's so common, I don't even turn my head. Most tourists come from the north. For the French, the Riviera is the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons rolled into one. And of course you know about Monaco, which is 12 miles from here. The French Riviera has long been a haven for the Russian oligarchs. They've disappeared this year. Far fewer super yachts in the yacht basins. September is still considered high season, but it is not the same as August. It's about half as busy here now as in the first two weeks of August. So, yes, the stresses are not as apparent here as in the rest of Europe. FxFox lives in Germany. He's a native and in better position to have his finger on the pulse of the popular mood in Europe. Given the German perspective on inflation, that would be interesting. I just don't have the contact with the media here that the locals do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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