DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 I have to get out of my apartment for a couple of days. They are pouring a new subfloor. Hotel rates here are still stratospheric, so I'm looking for a comfortable spot under the arches at Place Garibaldi. There's a nice community of old Polish fellows living there that I can join for a few days, considering that I speak a few Polish phrases. Ayyyyy! Jak się masz! I just need to get some cardboard boxes at the Monoprix to make my bed. During the day, there's a business center café in the Hotel du Pin, across the street from my apartment, where I can hang out, do some work, and chat wit youse. I hope they let me use the WC. Meanwhile, today is, of course, 22 9 22 in European terms. The first day of Fall. First day of the Post FOMC Circus Fall. But what about the rest of the Fall. Follow that story at Liquidity Trader. I missed the dog and pony show yesterday. What did MC Cool Jay have to say? It's only 4:20 AM in New York, a little early to guess what the day will look like in the stock market. Yesterday's head and shoulders top at a bottom breakdown measured to 3750ish. That's done. But there was a bigger pattern that measures to 3650ish that suggests more downside. The bigger patterns are less reliable than the smaller ones, so I don't know about that second target. 5 day cycle projection was overshot. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3730 still hanging out there, but hourly oscillators have upticked and an upturn is due on that cycle. Considering all that, I'd lean toward today being a consolidation day. Likely range 3735-3825, or 3845 if the manage to punch out 3825. Meanwhile, the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022 What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be September 19, 2022 In the Goldrums September 16, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 And again, the Fed's sham increase in the sham Fed Funds rate at 75 BP fell short of the 100 BP rise in market rates since the last Fed rate "increase" 6 weeks ago. The Fed Fake Funds rate was "raised" to 3-3.25, while the 13 week T-bill, which is a real market, trades at 3.34. The Fed just keeps running to keep up with the market. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 BoJ just intervened in the FX market. Oh. That'll make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, DrStool said: BoJ just intervened in the FX market. Oh. That'll make a difference. Wait, it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/ Interesting Worldle today. (Something to do while we clip money-market coupons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 5 hours ago, DrStool said: I have to get out of my apartment for a couple of days. They are pouring a new subfloor. Hotel rates here are still stratospheric, so I'm looking for a comfortable spot under the arches at Place Garibaldi. There's a nice community of old Polish fellows living there that I can join for a few days, considering that I speak a few Polish phrases. Ayyyyy! Jak się masz! Why don't you just stay on your yacht. Oh that's right. Bears don't have yachts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Jorma said: Why don't you just stay on your yacht. Oh that's right. Bears don't have yachts. But that's my hood. I live 3 blocks away. My first stay in Nice a couple years back was just off the right side of that photo. I had a view of the port and the sea, and la Colline du Chateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 double bottom with a slight positive divergence. I doubt it will hold, but what I think is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 34 minutes ago, Jorma said: Why don't you just stay on your yacht. Oh that's right. Bears don't have yachts. a bear's marina..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 Junk Bonds (HYG) new 2022 low. Good. Stocks will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 2 hours ago, BreakOut said: https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/ Interesting Worldle today. (Something to do while we clip money-market coupons). Lovely place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Jimi said: Lovely place. Looks familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 We have another head and shoulders top at a bottom. Measures to 3660 if it breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 22, 2022 Report Share Posted September 22, 2022 As expected German Real Estate breaks down: Hypoport SE: Decline of revenue and EBIT expected for Q3 2022. Annual forecast is suspended. https://www.hypoport.com/hypoport/uploads/2022/09/20220922-Hypoport-Inside-information-pursuant-to-article-17-of-the-MAR-Guidance-FY-22.pdf „The current forecast for the year will be clearly missed. Because the Management Board cannot predict whether consumers' reluctance to close mortgage loans will end later this year, it is suspending its forecast for the current financial year 2022.“ Stock -24% after hours at 120, high was at 612 in Sep 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 0.97xxx and a long red 30 min candle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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