DrStool Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 This is it, right here. 3869. If that breaks, the baby dinosaur that has formed on the chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures over the past two days, will be euthanized. So sad. The next likely stopping points would be either 3860, or the lows around 3833. On the other hand, if they hold back up we go to test the top of the range. Obviously with the Fed on tap, the norm is for muted moves. Nothing happens in the stock market until the FOMC rubber stamps the rate market that leads the Fed, and then Jerome Powell spews a bunch of BS and lies about what they did and why. It's funny that the media talks about the Fed raising rates. The Fed never raises rates. The rate market goes up on its own because money is tight. The Fed doesn't even catch up with the market. In fact, the real money market is up 105 basis points since the last time the Fed "raised" rates six weeks ago. So again, the next time you hear them say that the Fed has raised rates, recognize that the Fed has never, not once, raised rates in this cycle. It follows the market, and it has yet to catch up with it. Meanwhile, the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022 What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be September 19, 2022 In the Goldrums September 16, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mkucstars Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 Thank you for that. So many believe the fed is in control and sets the tone (and rates). I wish more would wake up to the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 US 2 year up 1350% within 12 months German 10 year up 1000% within 12 months Is that a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 52 minutes ago, fxfox said: US 2 year up 1350% within 12 months German 10 year up 1000% within 12 months Is that a lot? Pork bellies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 Most people are not afflicted with excessive literalism so if the Fed manipulates the market by intervening in it that is the same as "setting" rates. The mechanisms being irrelevant to them. For most people it is the result that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 THE CHOICE THE FED HAS MADE....THE CROWDED TRACK So the FED is no longer printing..... Might even do some QT.... Inflation should go down....but not back to 2%...... So where are we now..... We are on the other track....the crowded one..... This is where all the defecit loving governments now compete for the limited supply of capital.....borrowing.....without the FED increasing the amount that can be borrowed.... Its called the "crowding out effect"....I remember the 70's...... I remember seeing the crowding out effect way back then..... Thats what we are having now.....Government defecits crowding out private sector borrowing.... By offering higher rates for the limited supply of debt..... This will be felt in the junk bond market..... And in the housing market.... Then in the investment grade market Already its not pretty..... This will suck debt capital from periphery countries back to the USA.... Que debt distress and default by said periphery countries.... Que rising US$ exchange rate as funds sucked into USA to fund Government defecit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 You know the ol' saying... If they can't crack it down...they're going to crack it up. I only care about two things...Volume and 2nd Day Confirmation. Ideally...I'd like to see an explosion back through 3900...and then a grand failure the very next day. Surgery on Thursday. TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 Be well on Thursday, TCG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 Thanks Jimi... TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 Get lots of rest! I wish you a speedy recovery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 20, 2022 Report Share Posted September 20, 2022 Thanks sb... No worries on my end. Hopefully the recovery will be fast as well. TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2022 12 hours ago, The CoinGuy said: You know the ol' saying... If they can't crack it down...they're going to crack it up. I only care about two things...Volume and 2nd Day Confirmation. Ideally...I'd like to see an explosion back through 3900...and then a grand failure the very next day. Surgery on Thursday. TCG Best of luck - Sending positive particles via Quantum Mechanics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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