DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 I just updated the withholding tax data for August, with that data now complete for the month. It looks weak. I'll have more in a full report to follow later today. Normally the month end data is out a few days before the BLS (Bureau of Liar Statistics) NFP (Non Factual Payrolls) data. This month, that data as finished only as of last night, too late for me, here in Europe, to update until this morning. That said, the July data was solid and it often feels to me as though the BLS data lags the 12th of the month data collection date to correlate more with the end of the prior month, not the current month. Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It Meanwhile, the futures are perfectly positioned to go either way! Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show ItSeptember 2, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Good Week For Our Shorts Last Week, Adding More Now August 29, 2022 Freak Out Now Before It’s Too Late August 29, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Gold Miners Swing Picks August 26, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 FINANCIAL JOKE What is the new 60/40 Answer 30/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 5 day cycle projection 4020-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 Minor roadblock here at 4016, then clear sailing to 4045. The 5 day cycle projection would seem to be on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 A little too weird how the bottom wrapped around my red ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 Now we spend the rest of today and maybe part of tomorrow finding out if they have what it takes to complete a right shoulder. Where are the documents missing from the empty top secret folders? Who has them, and what did they contain? Why hasn't the perp been arrested yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 Something real bad is coming to America, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 41 minutes ago, DrStool said: A little too weird how the bottom wrapped around my red ball. You should prolly get that checked out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 Probably the most active month I've seen in several years. I'm just going to give it to you straight out of my own notes. Starting off September with the 1st into the 2nd. The 1st being the mid-point in the 40 day beginning on August 12th(224)(+4/-4)(+10/+20), then the night of the 4th going into the 5th. The full moon is on the 10th and a window opens the 11th and closes on the 12th. 14th(fades into the 15th). 21st into the 22nd and again on the 24th(and strengthens into the 25th). On Sunday the 25th you have a new moon and the beginning of Rosh HaShanah until the 27th. I saw you're post from last evening Jimi. As mentioned...I prefer left field, but I'm not ruling anything out. Global instability should accelerate... Current Thoughts... Yesterday gave us the edge of the creek within all areas of interest. Next, is to just watch for these issues to "jump the creek"(or reject the jump) and adjust accordingly. Although...with one small caveat. Always be watchful for short-term inversions/deceptions along the path. Currently...I'm seeing nothing out of the ordinary. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 There will be no right shoulder before we are older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 I guess the raison du jour is the gazprom thing. Or maybe the missing top secret files containing the 11 herbs and spices. Also the names and locations of US spies in Russia. I don't think that this will end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 It would be irresponsible for me not to mention... In light of fxfox's "This is It" video from the other day and considering where we are in the 2008 vs. 2022 pattern in the SPX...Lehman fell on September 15th, 2008. Now...I personally don't like the saying "History never repeats, but it sure does rhyme" even though I have used it on occasion. I've done this only because everyone is familiar with the implication. In my own terms....I use the word 'echo'. "An echo from the past". With all of that said... In regards to history and my own view of the patterning structure of the SPX in 2008 vs. today here in September of 2022. We are on the edge of the Lehman incident...and that is why I'm watching for "It". I'm expecting an echo from the past... As a gentleman...this is my way of saying it might be time to - strap in. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: There will be no right shoulder before we are older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 2, 2022 Report Share Posted September 2, 2022 The „Lehman Event“ could be Taiwan, but only if the West would impose sanctions on Red China. Market would perceive that as the End of Globalization and would start to „price-out“ the globalization premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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