DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Last week I pointed out that the breakdown of the top of the latest rally in the ES, 24 hour S&P 500 fugutures, resulted in a conventional measured move target of 3900-3910. We are 10 points above that as of 5:30 AM New York time. They tried multiple times to break the downtrend yesterday and it looked like they were succeeding but then they gave up the ghost in the afternoon. Now they're closer to another breakdown than an upside reversal. A break of the 3909 level would put the ES in a support vacuum down to around 3870, and below that, 3850. In the even they're able to hold here, there are multiple resistance lines overhead. The first is around 3935, and then there's a cluster from 3853 to 3878 that would be tough to crack. In other words, the path of least resistance still appears to be down. In fact, if they do take out 3920, then the 5 day cycle projection would be around 3775, at least. Yesterday I called attention to the fact that $57 billion in Treasury coupon paper was settling, and that that should put pressure on bond prices, i.e. higher yields. Sure enough. Not only did yields rise yesterday, they broke out, signaling continuing acceleration in the uptrend. You can see that clearly in the hourly chart of the 10 year yield over the past month. But as you can see on the hourly chart of the 10 Year Treasury yield, this is nothing new. The uptrend started in early August, right around the time when a couple of Primary Dealer marketing shills (aka "anal cysts") were out in the Wall Street captured media (yes you CNBC and WSJ) telling everyone to buy bonds. They said that the US economy was so weak, inflation would soon drop like a stone and the 10 year would be yielding 2%. They are either incompetent, or liars, or both. Sometimes I think that they really believe their own marketing. But the fact is, when they have inventory to unload, they say whatever they need to, to move that inventory. Meanwhile, I had warned for months that August would be a turning point in the Treasury market because the supply situation would then get much much worse. That wasn't a wild guess on my part. It was based on information that is published in advance. I just follow the data, observe, and report. It's not rocket science. As for the yellow relic, I just hope that what's going on on this chart for the past 2 1/2 years is a high base and not an epochal top. But there's absolutely nothing here that says this won't break down. The path of least resistance is down until that support line is tested, holds, and generates a powerful upthrust. If those things don't happen, kiss this goodbye. The measured move target of a breakdown would be 1350. As for the miners, not a good look. The GDX needs to get back above 25.45 by next week or its curtains. Curtains! I tell ya! Gold Miners Swing Picks From the Department of BTC Leads, this is one shred of hope for the equity bulls that stocks won't break down further here. Now, over many months, we've seen BTC lead stocks, frequently. But once in a while, it works the other way. So I wouldn't hang my hat on this. I've never been a big believer in intermarket relationships. They tend to change over time. Trade the chart that you're trading. Besides, over time BTC is going to 5000 below zero. Meanwhile, Technical Trader Swing Trade Screen picks are doing very well indeed, currently 15 picks, 15 gains, with an average gain of 6.2% on an average holding period of a week and a day. Too bad we can't annualize that, but moves like this are few during the year. We just need to catch them, and the screens do that. They've also been helpful in keeping losses to a minimum in churning, rangebound markets that are meat grinders for swing trading. Taking advantage of trends and keeping loss exposure low when the market is simply churning, is what it's about. Swing Trade Screens – Good Week For Our Shorts Last Week, Adding More Now August 29, 2022 Freak Out Now Before It’s Too Late August 29, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Gold Miners Swing Picks August 26, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 That's one small trendline for bull, a few giant leaps still needed by bullkind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 1, 2022 Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 WHAT FURTHER IS THERE TO SAY I'm sure there will be support at 3000......... Only minus 25% to go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Just a little weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 I predict... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Crash and V bottom today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted September 1, 2022 Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Fat Bottom Girls you make the Rockin' world go round.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 1, 2022 Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 I get all my BTC news at the link. I can't decide if its comedy or tragedy. https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/ The current story; crypto mining in Texas. Sounds like a dystopian nightmare to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Speaks for itself. August 1 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-01/bank-of-america-says-a-2-us-10-year-treasury-yield-is-possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 1, 2022 Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 3900(+10/-10)...the whole world is watching and when it falls, I expect acceleration. Frankly...I've just been sitting here waiting for the catalyst. I had a strange sensation of 'calm before the storm' yesterday. Almost felt a little creepy. Although, I am on multiple med's and heading back into surgery soon....so, I'll be continuing to refrain from posting for the most part. With that said... I concur with Doc's thoughts this morning. All of them. TCG oh...and... I'll park this here as "food for thought". As we go forward...the vision "Through the Looking Glass" will become very clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 5 day cycle projection 3845. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Or 3825 pickem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 I extended the bottom of this chart so that you can see where the sport lines are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Right now of course it's 3900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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