DrStool Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Today is day 10 in traders' hell. The narrowest part of the range that needs to be broken to get anything started on the hourly ES, S&P 24 hour continuous fuguetures is 4107-4148. But to really break the pattern enough to get something going on the downside they would need to punch below 4100. On the upside, the next resistance and top of the pattern is at 4195. The hourly oscillators look bottomy and a 5 day cycle low is due. From that perspective the bulls would have the edge today. Even if they do, it shouldn't last long. Of course today at 8:30 AM ET we get CPI. That should get something going. Here's my favorite chart of government "inflation" pre CPI release. Of course, none of these really measure inflation as defined as a rise in the general price level, because they all exclude house prices and understate rent increases. And the government's use of contract rents rather than actual current market rents means that the change in the rent component will lag the market by many months, if not a year or more. So when market rents start to moderate or decline, contract rents will lag that change, leaving the government's inflation prints higher than actual for months. We're not there yet, but that will punch the government statistical manipulators in the face. Then there's the business of hedonic replacements, replacing goods that are rising fastest with goods that are similar but with less utility and lower quality, and of course lower prices and slower price increases. So yeah, general inflation really is closer to 13% than 9%. But hey, who's counting? Certainly not the Fed. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – One Bad Trade Hurt But the Rest Bailed Us Out for a Win August 8, 2022 Fasten Your Seatbelts – Updated Cycle Projections Are Shocking August 8, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands August 5, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Meanwhile, the Fed chooses not to even try to attack the problem. It falls farther below the real trend of interest rates in the market, which race ahead while remaining 5 or 6 percentage points below the printed inflation rates, and probably 10% below the actual inflation rate including housing measured accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Good grief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Lock limit up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Today CNBCeee will declare the bear dead, new bull market started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Cycles reign over liquidity??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Good grief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 market will be down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: market will be down today. The quote at Hillbillybet.com is 1 to 666 for that 😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, fxfox said: The quote at Hillbillybet.com is 1 to 666 for that 😂😂😂 Yes the odds are low but what do I have to lose. seriously there's only a chance if they get under 4172. then we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, DrStool said: Yes the odds are low but what do I have to lose. seriously there's only a chance if they get under 4172. then we have a shot. The maginot is the 50 fibo at 4234. A weekly close sbove it and the bear case is done. So risk/reward is awesomly good right here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 NDX 24 hours did hit the EMA200 1min and bombed higher from that. As long as we dont break the EMA200 1min we grind higher for the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 The last hope for the bears is that the FED shocks the market with an inter-meeting 2% rate hike bomb or something like that. will they do? Most likely not. I have more the impression that a SEA of liqui is waiting on the sidelines. From all over the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 The core narrative of the bears „inflation gets out of control, therefore the FED will hike and hike and hike“ broke down like a house of cards today. Next narrative will be „We go directly from inflation to deflation“… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 10, 2022 Report Share Posted August 10, 2022 Rates gotta close green today, at best by a landslide, that would give bears hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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