Hiding Bear Posted March 19, 2003 Report Posted March 19, 2003 This market have taught me one of the most important lesson: It is ok to be wrong, but not wrong for too long--A stoolie said it here, but I don't know who. ?This is what stops are for if you honor them. I think that we rally(flag pole style) when this war is on due to PPT and then we will tank hard without even looking back to 720 on the SP500. ?If you look at the futures, it tanks only to explode at 3:00am or so. ?During the regular trading hours, we open low to only have a stick save. ?At 3:00pm we flag pole rally again to end up the day positive. ?Da Boyz are the power to be--for now, we are just being eaten by the larger fish. Oilman Well said. DOC already noted the MO Gauge was rising due to low rates a few weeks back. Now, ironically?, long term interest rates are rising. As any bear already knows,when mortgage rates begin a sustained rise not only will the housing bubble will pop - but the rest of the economy will come down with it. May take a few months, especially now that the FED has taken a more agressive money producing stance lately. Meanwhile Budda, and Mark, and DOC may be right about doing a dong, but I wouldn't put too much money on that trend.
SkiddMarket Posted March 19, 2003 Report Posted March 19, 2003 Claim of a Saddam Exile.....Link http://www.itp.net/news/104809179530060.htm Nice rumor. I'm watching the Emini futures like a hawk- not twitching yet. That may be worth a few bucks if anyone believes it. Ooops... just popped up a point. Hmmmm....
soup Posted March 19, 2003 Report Posted March 19, 2003 all outcomes are percieved as bullish for stocks. Some how ( and I am sure I will be proven wrong) I do not think it will be quite that simple
Stoolander Posted March 19, 2003 Report Posted March 19, 2003 Pretty much everywhere I look at market internals, this looks more like a top than a bottom. And if you believe news is noise and the market discounts everything, then I just don't see a big surprise to the upside. As well when I look at S&P, I see an obvious downtrend line that offers resistance at 880 as well as a "return to the scene of the crime" sloppy H&S possible neckline touch from below in the same 880 area. Until we break 880 and then challenge the longer downtrend line at 938 this bear is keeping his claws on and the bull horns and Dow 10,000 hat stay in the closet collecting dust. I'll have to get with the program and start posting charts.
phatbubble Posted March 19, 2003 Report Posted March 19, 2003 to: the office of legerdemain from: phatbubble subject: your day in the sun to whom it may concern: you are a fakeassed sack of shit. while i'm not blown out or even particularly dispirited, i am growing grievously sick of your constant presence. this market has been jammed, propped, and porked so often for so long it looks like a mannequin of a cadaver trying to hump its own leg; fib numbers are irrelevant and astrology is nearly useless and doc's cycles only work when there's not a napalm bomb going off in the futures pit. you have infested everything. jocular t.v. pundits blather about the "kickoff" of the war and swoon when every other company "beats by a penny". ISPs pimp their customers' email addresses and then hawk spam protection. antispyware downloads install their own spyware. customer service phone systems loop vapid drivel about the importance of the call while the caller is being stalled to meet a target level of call attrition, and if they tough it out they get forwarded to a temp worker in bombay who answers the phone in a fake oklahoman accent. buddha is right, we live in a plutocracy, but it's worse than that, it's a complete and shameless fraud, and it's all your fault. if i ever find your sorry ass i'll rip your throat out and have you stuffed with junk mail, and you'll spend the rest of eternity behind museum plexiglass underneath a placard that reads FAKE. sit facing the door, phat
Jorma Posted March 19, 2003 Report Posted March 19, 2003 We are back to the seeming closed loop bond/stock relationship. Bonds being liquidated and being put into stocks, at least by the big houses, you can bet on it. The thing is, come a stock downturn they can reverse it again, liquidate some stocks, buy bonds, yada yada yada. Bring the rates back down, get the mortgage game under way again, and on an on. Is that too obvious. Well obvious is perfect now. Not saying this is going to happen, but still..... And then there is Al with the cut after the glorious victory doesn't send the economy on an upward path. The "worry about the war is holding back the economy" is the worst and most repeated bit of stool since "The check is in the mail". The next series of bad numbers, next month will bring out the long knives for a rate cut and Al better listen because the glorious leader will be behind it. All a way of saying that while Doc thinks the big turn is finally here I have my doubts. Those longer term targets are still valid aren't they Doc.
realist Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 Realist chimes in for a quick update: Per my post last week about taking a few days away from the Stool. Little unerved about the entrenchment of the BEARS on this board and made me realize that I am not on common ground here. There are not many "TRADERS" here apparently, there are many entrenched "BEARS", many who have gotten their asses handed to them and this made me angry Why? Because BEARS and BULLS are stupid IMO and deserve to lose their precious trading capital. Entrenchment in a single camp causes emotion to carry over into one's objective trading abilities. I posted my two DONG trades from the 3/12 PM print and a follow up from the 3/13 AM print. As of tonights print I am 90% back into MXX with the execption of a PMX LT position trade. As a trader and not a BULL or a BEAR, I saw the hammer reversal toward the close on 3/12 and took that trading opportunity. I was extremely happy with this decision and made a significant profit. With the WAR near, I chose to sit in cash because I do not know if the market sells on the news or continues to rally yet. In any case, the point I am trying to make is that emotions fade your money, eWaves are not consistant trading measures, engrained bias causes confusion. One must trade on intuition, experience and skill. Don't allow the BULL or BEAR emotion inside to make you lose your mind or your money.
Oilman Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 Have you ever gamble at the casino? The house always win, why? You stay too long because they have the advantage. When I gamble, I do it for fun. With that said, I also have a plan. I go with about $500 every 4 to 8 months. If my luck is bad, I lose everything and I (honor my stop) I go home. If I managed to say have $900 total, I take $700 and put this in my pocket as no matter what I will be going home with this +$200 gain. I take the other $200 and play this and if I lose (Stop lost) I go home (honor my stop). If I get another $200, I take the other $200 and put this in my pocket and play with the other $200. I repeat this until I lose my $200 (get stop out). I then go home with my winnings(honor my stop). So why should this market be any different? I say it is not much.
rog Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 off-topic: Any suggestions for a good pop-up blocker? This is getting ridiculous!
Ned38 Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 Been busy so not posting much butttttttttttt........................... I went with the flow....meaning. I closed RYVNX the day BEFORE the ramp------TA 101 combined with Mrs Ned's orders and of course the cautionary postings of some of the better traders here. The charts had some bullish implications and few wanted to acknowledge them I also bailed on gold miners and will stay away from them for now. Charts tell me they are merely retesting broken trendlines from below On top of that I have done 3 long trades in and out for 10% profit on each since last Friday. Not great but not losing money either. My take is that this rally is consolodating the last 2 days and that Docs CMAPs will get hit. Could I be wrong and a retrace start tomorrow.? Sure. Could the war be over real fast and the rally be over too?...Sure But I will let the market tell me--stops and daytades only---no Rydex where I can't get in and out fast Wanna talk forensics?-----Look for Max pain next month. Makes more sense. That theory works most of the time , but nuttin works all the time. Fight the government with charts?......I don't think so. Look at the buck and tell me when it starts to roll over . Wadda ya's think will happen if Sadaam really does go into exile? Market crash?.........Uhhhhh I dont think so. There are excellent traders here. I am NOT one of them.Figure out who they are and listen to them. Just my .02. Your mileage may vary
Oilman Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 Rog, I use a internet program called OPERA and it allow me to block pop ups with just a click. I love it! Oilman
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 off-topic: Any suggestions for a good pop-up blocker? This is getting ridiculous! Switch to the Opera browser: www.opera.com Faster. Multiple browsing windows. Built-in pop-up suppression.
Grizzly_Canuck Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 Entrenchment in a single camp causes emotion to carry over into one's objective trading abilities. Realist, I second that! I said it here before this is not about bear dogma, it's about making money and being nimble enough to switch sides at the drop of a hat. They harped on GTNWORSE for going long instead of heeding the possibility. Some even get angry if you so much as mention the possibility of a bounce. They just down't want to hear it. I posted a 78.5-week cycle chart a couple of times last week showing it bottoming mid-March. Nobody wanted to discuss it. Some even dismissed it as inaccurate even though it showed in black and white how it called the 9/01 bottom to the day. TO THE DAY! I bought SPX calls last Tursday and Friday. Sold half on Monday. Will be dumping the rest whithin the next week or so or possibly sooner.
crooked_analyst Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 SOMETIMES, NEWS IS NOT JUST NOISE.... Puplava Snippet..According to a recent BBC report, a former Japanese finance minister and the head of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, have agreed to cooperate with each other to intervene in the markets ahead of the war. The two economic powers agreed to take cooperative action in the foreign exchange, stock, and other markets if the markets run into a crisis. Both Japan and the Fed will be monitoring the foreign currency markets and the currency markets throughout the Iraqi War. In essence, no matter what happens as a result of the war, or how bad earnings come in during Q1, or what the economic numbers are, there is an artificial floor underneath the markets. So it should come as no surprise that even on a day like today where markets battled between gains and losses all day, several surges in stock prices could be viewed as more bad news hit the Street. Financial Sense.
Guest The CoinGuy Posted March 20, 2003 Report Posted March 20, 2003 Hello Fellow Stoolies, The second ramp day, and I was trying to make up my mind whether to take to the ledge, or just fall on the sword. Still feel that way really, a little bruised and battered, but nothing a few martinis and a couple of women can't heal... I'm holding my long-term market positions in the miners, physical gold, and euros(No US$ Cash). The rest of the market be damned. I didn't like the way this last decline was setting up, hence, I haven't been posting much, just reading and watching. I'm going with the "our markets are manipulated to high-heaven" theory, and am believing with "help", they can stay entirely too irrational for my pocketbook. So, once and for all, I'm stepping aside, and taking a long vacation. Something, I feel I deserve after battling this SOB for 15 years(Up & Down). Good Luck to all, TCG
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.