Jump to content

Drip Drip 8/2/22


Recommended Posts

There's some bleeding going on this morning. As I pointed out yesterday, they need to break 4078 to complete a nice tight little top pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 24 hour fuguetures. Still true this morning. 

But the 5 day cycle projection is only 4078-80 so far. So we wait, in suspense. 

tvc_0db60d5655769a28da6faa1976ad9b6e.png

I'm working on a Liquidity Trader update of the Federal tax collections for July. Just how strong was the jobs picture in July. We already know the facts, and I will report that to you a bit later this morning.  https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

Meanwhile, I'll be back! 

To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. 

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 16
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Still too many bears.

We had extreme sentiment readings in June, but in my view we didn‘t have capitulation. I wanna hear folks around me saying:“I never touch stocks again!“ I haven‘t heard that yet, but I heard it in 2002, 2003 and 2009. OTOH maybe the mistake is to think that we get a 2000-2003 or 2008/2009 like bear market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Short it. 
 
If the US economy slows significantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond could drop to 2% within six to 12 months, Bank of America strategist Bruno Braizinha said in a note to clients. "A further rally from here is possible and even likely, but how much further depends on a series of fundamentals and more technical drivers," Braizinha said. The 10-year yield hit 2.58% on Monday.

Full Story: BNN Bloomberg (Canada) (8/1) 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Still too many bears.

We had extreme sentiment readings in June, but in my view we didn‘t have capitulation. I wanna hear folks around me saying:“I never touch stocks again!“ I haven‘t heard that yet, but I heard it in 2002, 2003 and 2009. OTOH maybe the mistake is to think that we get a 2000-2003 or 2008/2009 like bear market.

Trade what the market gives you.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DrStool said:
Short it. 
 
If the US economy slows significantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond could drop to 2% within six to 12 months, Bank of America strategist Bruno Braizinha said in a note to clients. "A further rally from here is possible and even likely, but how much further depends on a series of fundamentals and more technical drivers," Braizinha said. The 10-year yield hit 2.58% on Monday.

Full Story: BNN Bloomberg (Canada) (8/1) 

 

Published yesterday at the absolute low in yield. 

Fuckers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, potatohead said:
"The Treasury’s debt managers now expect to borrow $444 billion in the July-through-September period, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion." — BBG
 

Who warned you?

Who's your daddy? 😄😄😄😆

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, potatohead said:
"The Treasury’s debt managers now expect to borrow $444 billion in the July-through-September period, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion." — BBG
 

… and the VAST majority of that in Aug and Sep alone 😳

That plus QT in earnest in Sep, woohoo 😳 Market can‘t absorb that.

FED will intervene in Oct 😂

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...