DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 There's some bleeding going on this morning. As I pointed out yesterday, they need to break 4078 to complete a nice tight little top pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 24 hour fuguetures. Still true this morning. But the 5 day cycle projection is only 4078-80 so far. So we wait, in suspense. I'm working on a Liquidity Trader update of the Federal tax collections for July. Just how strong was the jobs picture in July. We already know the facts, and I will report that to you a bit later this morning. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ Meanwhile, I'll be back! To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question August 1, 2022 Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 they just invalidated the potential top pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 Still too many bears. We had extreme sentiment readings in June, but in my view we didn‘t have capitulation. I wanna hear folks around me saying:“I never touch stocks again!“ I haven‘t heard that yet, but I heard it in 2002, 2003 and 2009. OTOH maybe the mistake is to think that we get a 2000-2003 or 2008/2009 like bear market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 No one will help Taiwan and everyone knows that, even the Taiwanese themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 Short it. BofA: 10-Year Treasury yield could fall to 2% in months If the US economy slows significantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond could drop to 2% within six to 12 months, Bank of America strategist Bruno Braizinha said in a note to clients. "A further rally from here is possible and even likely, but how much further depends on a series of fundamentals and more technical drivers," Braizinha said. The 10-year yield hit 2.58% on Monday. Full Story: BNN Bloomberg (Canada) (8/1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 Hmmm. Triple top. They don't happen too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, fxfox said: Still too many bears. We had extreme sentiment readings in June, but in my view we didn‘t have capitulation. I wanna hear folks around me saying:“I never touch stocks again!“ I haven‘t heard that yet, but I heard it in 2002, 2003 and 2009. OTOH maybe the mistake is to think that we get a 2000-2003 or 2008/2009 like bear market. Trade what the market gives you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, DrStool said: Short it. BofA: 10-Year Treasury yield could fall to 2% in months If the US economy slows significantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond could drop to 2% within six to 12 months, Bank of America strategist Bruno Braizinha said in a note to clients. "A further rally from here is possible and even likely, but how much further depends on a series of fundamentals and more technical drivers," Braizinha said. The 10-year yield hit 2.58% on Monday. Full Story: BNN Bloomberg (Canada) (8/1) Published yesterday at the absolute low in yield. Fuckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 "The Treasury’s debt managers now expect to borrow $444 billion in the July-through-September period, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion." — BBG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 Pattern bullish until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, potatohead said: "The Treasury’s debt managers now expect to borrow $444 billion in the July-through-September period, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion." — BBG Who warned you? Who's your daddy? 😄😄😄😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, DrStool said: Who warned you? Who's your daddy? 😄😄😄😆 Lee Adler, the most trusted name in liquidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 50 minutes ago, potatohead said: "The Treasury’s debt managers now expect to borrow $444 billion in the July-through-September period, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion." — BBG … and the VAST majority of that in Aug and Sep alone 😳 That plus QT in earnest in Sep, woohoo 😳 Market can‘t absorb that. FED will intervene in Oct 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 TLT falls break above 119 to suck the suckers in, now 117.65, top in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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