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The Flawless Bottom Indicator 7/22/22


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That's right. It's whenever FxFox shows up here. Its record is 100%. The FxFox indicator is one of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. When Foxy starts posting on the Stool, cover all your shorts and go long with both fists. Rule Number One: Don't fight the Fed. Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. Rule Number 3: When FxFox appears, run for cover. 😄😄😄 

Do your own due diligence! 

Meanwhile, 

Calculated New Cash/Pay Down Amounts

(All values in Millions of Dollars)
In the Security Type column, Coupons include Notes, Bonds, FRNs, and TIPS.

 

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
         
07/26/2022 Bills $135,000 $94,994 $40,006

Whoa. That'll leave a mark. 

This confirms my analysis and forecast that the T-bill paydowns would end in late July. 

As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time

Meanwhile, let's start our usual very short term look at the US market with a zoomed out view of the 5 hour bars on the ES, S&P futures, or fuguetures, as the case may be. 

tvc_c054b3dbfc2676d33417c6bebebc5b51.png

The market is in the process of breaking out of the downtrend channel from the March high. That's huge from both an intraday perspective, and intermediate term. As I've recently ranted, not just the liquidity data has been bullish, the technical data has been bullish for weeks.

So don't complain, my fellow bearmerkans and other assorted miscreants. You must follow the first commandment. Thou shalt not shit in the woods. Because bear markets never go straight down for extended periods. In fact, they spend more time going up than down.  

However, we note that the 5 hour bar oscillators are at levels where past short term peaks have occurred. So there's that. 

On the hourly bars, the base breakout still has that conventional measurement of 4075, or perhaps 4100. That has no timing implication, other than it should bear some semblance to the size of the base. That means within 2-3 weeks. It could be tomorrow. Or maybe not. I don't know about where you are but tomorrow is Saturday here in France. We sit on the terrace and grab a glass. 

There's currently no 5 day cycle projection. The 2-3 day cycle projection is 4000. But of course. Or as we say in fronsay, "Mais, bien sur."

They already hit it overnight. New York should join the party this morning. 

tvc_b5eeb30bcda53e542e2b1e358c4a8519.png

To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following:

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„That's right. It's whenever FxFox shows up here. Its record is 100%. The FxFox indicator is one of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. When Foxy starts posting on the Stool, cover all your shorts and go long with both fists. Rule Number One: Don't fight the Fed. Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. Rule Number 3: When FxFox appears, run for cover. 😄😄😄 „

 

😇😂🏻

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51 minutes ago, DrStool said:

OK. I forecast a bond rally, but this is absurd. The chorts. The chorts. 

If they break 2.70, this top would measure to two pint oh. 

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21 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Hard to believe, Harry. 

Since I saw that TNX MACD two line weekly chart I've been thinking of scenarios where the long end crashes, if ever so briefly. Just for fun. I have penciled in a serious fall in stocks as a likely trigger.  Maybe something else.  If a plunge to 2% or lower happened then the Feds loss of control would be obvious to even the most dim witted. Then what? Who know? Scenarios rarely play out anyway.  Still if it happened I'd bet the ranch on shorting Treasuries. 

It would be Black Monday 87, in reverse.

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Many underestimate the impact of inflation on ordinary people. We are talking about TWO generations who never experienced any kind of inflation. They perceive it as absolute catastrophe for their way of living. All I hear day in day out is „Inflation“, they panic, they freak out.

And because of that the FED will freak out too. They will bomb rates higher than most think.

Many say they can‘t do that because of the 401k‘s. A valid point, ok. But in the end the fear of the rusty Fork is always bigger than the fear of the white collar guy who calls his attorney.

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