DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 That's right. It's whenever FxFox shows up here. Its record is 100%. The FxFox indicator is one of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. When Foxy starts posting on the Stool, cover all your shorts and go long with both fists. Rule Number One: Don't fight the Fed. Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. Rule Number 3: When FxFox appears, run for cover. 😄😄😄 Do your own due diligence! Meanwhile, Calculated New Cash/Pay Down Amounts (All values in Millions of Dollars) In the Security Type column, Coupons include Notes, Bonds, FRNs, and TIPS. Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 07/26/2022 Bills $135,000 $94,994 $40,006 Whoa. That'll leave a mark. This confirms my analysis and forecast that the T-bill paydowns would end in late July. As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time Meanwhile, let's start our usual very short term look at the US market with a zoomed out view of the 5 hour bars on the ES, S&P futures, or fuguetures, as the case may be. The market is in the process of breaking out of the downtrend channel from the March high. That's huge from both an intraday perspective, and intermediate term. As I've recently ranted, not just the liquidity data has been bullish, the technical data has been bullish for weeks. So don't complain, my fellow bearmerkans and other assorted miscreants. You must follow the first commandment. Thou shalt not shit in the woods. Because bear markets never go straight down for extended periods. In fact, they spend more time going up than down. However, we note that the 5 hour bar oscillators are at levels where past short term peaks have occurred. So there's that. On the hourly bars, the base breakout still has that conventional measurement of 4075, or perhaps 4100. That has no timing implication, other than it should bear some semblance to the size of the base. That means within 2-3 weeks. It could be tomorrow. Or maybe not. I don't know about where you are but tomorrow is Saturday here in France. We sit on the terrace and grab a glass. There's currently no 5 day cycle projection. The 2-3 day cycle projection is 4000. But of course. Or as we say in fronsay, "Mais, bien sur." They already hit it overnight. New York should join the party this morning. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022 Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022 Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase July 18, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 „That's right. It's whenever FxFox shows up here. Its record is 100%. The FxFox indicator is one of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. When Foxy starts posting on the Stool, cover all your shorts and go long with both fists. Rule Number One: Don't fight the Fed. Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. Rule Number 3: When FxFox appears, run for cover. 😄😄😄 „ 😇😂✌🏻 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, fxfox said: 😇😂✌🏻 😅😅😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 I love the bandage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 Snap down 38%. Is that a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 So, then. What are we pricing with efficiency today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 This is where the rubbers meet the road. 3935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 OK. I forecast a bond rally, but this is absurd. The chorts. The chorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: OK. I forecast a bond rally, but this is absurd. The chorts. The chorts. The Fed is losing control of the long end of rates, to the downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 51 minutes ago, DrStool said: OK. I forecast a bond rally, but this is absurd. The chorts. The chorts. If they break 2.70, this top would measure to two pint oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 Hard to believe, Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, DrStool said: Hard to believe, Harry. Since I saw that TNX MACD two line weekly chart I've been thinking of scenarios where the long end crashes, if ever so briefly. Just for fun. I have penciled in a serious fall in stocks as a likely trigger. Maybe something else. If a plunge to 2% or lower happened then the Feds loss of control would be obvious to even the most dim witted. Then what? Who know? Scenarios rarely play out anyway. Still if it happened I'd bet the ranch on shorting Treasuries. It would be Black Monday 87, in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 If TLT goes above 119 it would be a confirmed inverted SHS breakout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 Many underestimate the impact of inflation on ordinary people. We are talking about TWO generations who never experienced any kind of inflation. They perceive it as absolute catastrophe for their way of living. All I hear day in day out is „Inflation“, they panic, they freak out. And because of that the FED will freak out too. They will bomb rates higher than most think. Many say they can‘t do that because of the 401k‘s. A valid point, ok. But in the end the fear of the rusty Fork is always bigger than the fear of the white collar guy who calls his attorney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Rusty fork? Must be a German expression. 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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