DrStool Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 I want to start with the 5 hour bars of the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures so that you can see just how significant this resistance area is. It will be no easy task to traverse the 40 points (1%) between the high of 3910 hit overnight, and the upper resistance band around 3950. That doesn't mean that it definitely won't get through, but if it does, it would mean that the next target of the rally would be around 4075. If it fails, the downtrend would be confirmed. Drilling down to the usual one hour view, you see the repulsion of the first attempt, and now, at 6 AM NY time, the testing of the bottom of the very short term hourly uptrend channel. 3875 is the critical sport area. If it holds, they'll try again to break out later this morning. If it fails, then the next move would be a pullback to the next sport level around 3860. Breaking that would give the bears some impetus. So we wait and see who wins this today. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 For Swing Trades this Week, It’s Politics As Unusual July 5, 2022 US Stock Market Celebrates the Froth of July July 4, 2022 Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook June 29, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Here's the 10 year Treasury yield on a continuous hourly 24 hour basis. If it drops under 2.975 then another pullback to around 2.90 would be likely. But whether it holds here, or drops back, it's likely to be headed higher after that. I don't think that the Bureau of Liar Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report will reflect the massive strength in June withholding tax collections. Most of the gain in taxes came after the jobs survey date of the 12th of the month. In addition, the first release of the jobs report is always a crapshoot, due to the statistical massagery that the BLS applies. That includes the ridiculous seasonal adjustment that is based on 5 years of past data and a guess at 5 years of future data that doesn't exist yet. Then there's the absurd business birth/death adjustment, that's another made up bunch of crap. In truth, the BLS has no clue how many jobs were created. After the first release they fit and refit the current data 7 times over 5 years before finalizing it. Eventually, their graph fits reality. But the current release is simply random junk for market masturbation. But the truth is that job creation for June as a whole was very strong. Tax collections don't lie. And this will show up in later reports as the BLS gradually retrofits the data to reality. The bond market is headed for another unpleasant surprise in the months ahead. Recession? What Recession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Smile. You're on Candid Camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Bullish until not bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 4 hours ago, DrStool said: 3875 is the critical sport area. If it holds, they'll try again to break out later this morning. If it fails, then the next move would be a pullback to the next sport level around 3860. Breaking that would give the bears some impetus. Still applies. If 3860 not broken, bulls still have the ball. And watch out on the upside if they clear 3911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 So lets see....... Low in the morning, perma bid higher rest of the day - all week long........ Rates cuts are right around the corner...... >: all news and reports "real or otherwise" means bid it all higher....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 2 hours ago, DrStool said: Still applies. If 3860 not broken, bulls still have the ball. And watch out on the upside if they clear 3911. Was that a throwover sort of deal there briefly above 3911? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 a slip back to 3880 and the perma bid came back for a Friday Afternoon...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Seems like everyone and their dog believes that the ultimate price low is already in. As reasons they quote the historic low consumer sentiment and the put/call ratio. It is also said that we have already seen the peak in inflation and therefore the FED will not hike much further. Quite weird is the following: People right now say they have no fear of losing their job, but when asked how they would rate the outlook of their personal financial conditions they say:“very bad“. Something doesn‘t fit here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Jackwagons SPX 3,899.38 (missed it by that much) Maybe 6 IS 9........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Jimi said: Was that a throwover sort of deal there briefly above 3911? Chart is bullish until proven otherwise. Ciao and have a great fan de semen. Also, planning a trip on the Shaman de fur Pro vonce to Entrevoe on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Wouldn‘t be surprised to see this happening at a big bank pretty soon: There is turmoil in the bond pits, normally some major bank should blow up. People have to realize that the real damage was done to bonds, not stocks. Stocks is for J6P. Bonds are the market that counts, stocks are a sideshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted July 8, 2022 Report Share Posted July 8, 2022 Entrevaux is cool. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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