DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 Europe rallied on Monday, and sold off hard overnight and this morning. The ES US S&P 500 continuous 24 hour futures mimicked that move. As of 5 AM in New York, they've managed to hang on to an uptrend by a hair. But they're on the cusp of a sell signal. They need to be below 3800 at 10 AM ET, for the uptrend to be broken. Even if that happens, it looks bumpy below, with additional sport lines around 3785, 3770, and 3765, any or all of which could be the bases for bounces. If they manage to maintain the uptrend, it probably won't be straight up, either, with multiple resistance lines between 3820 and 3860. Overall, the indecision range looks like 3765 to 3860. Between those lines is random positioning. But breaking one or the other should lead to a nice move. Looking at the hourly oscillators at 5 AM, the most likely move is down. Meanwhile a few post holiday deep thoughts. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: US Stock Market Celebrates the Froth of July July 4, 2022 Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook June 29, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 Bulls Have Hope This Week, Bears Wary of Pump June 27, 2022 The Spike Is Here, So Here’s What to Expect June 26, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 Meanwhile, the euro has broken down against the doolah, and is now indeed targeting parity on the daily chart. However, when you look at the very long term view, calculating conventional measured move targets from the broken top and consolidation patterns, results in a target range of 0.75-0.80. Ultimately, it depends on the relative tightness of the Fed vs. the ECB. As long as the Fed is tighter than the ECB, the euro will weaken against the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 In other meanwhiles, BTC continues to consolidate around 20k, on its way to its long term measured move target of 5000 below zero. Here's an arithmetic scale chart. On the daily chart, it's not so bad. The one year cycle projection is now 13k. It's trying to mount another rally. It needs to clear 21k. If it does, it should run to 23k. If it doesn't, breakdown dead ahead. Finally, I want to put that rally in the bond market in perspective. Here's the 10 year yield with the gigantic drop from mid June, on a daily chart. Here's a monthly chart for the long term perspective. I'm not too impressed with the bond rally. Liquidity wise, June was as good as it gets, and as good as its gonna be. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 United States Steel Corp $X P/E of 1 and Price to book of 0.4. Some of the valuations are getting insane. Are earning going to go to zero or the next ten years? Liquidity appears to be really drying up already and we haven't even hit full Q/T yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 We got sport lines at 3745 and 3728. https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_07ed87de5430cd9792e98a938c9e8b75.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, sandy beach said: United States Steel Corp $X P/E of 1 and Price to book of 0.4. Some of the valuations are getting insane. Are earning going to go to zero or the next ten years? Liquidity appears to be really drying up already and we haven't even hit full Q/T yet. Valuation is an utterly meaningless concept. Stocks only have intrinsic value to those who own controlling interest, or who otherwise control (C-suite). Everybody else owns only the right to sell. The price is the value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 29 minutes ago, DrStool said: Valuation is an utterly meaningless concept. Stocks only have intrinsic value to those who own controlling interest, or who otherwise control (C-suite). Everybody else owns only the right to sell. The price is the value. Awesome explanation Doc 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 Crude crashing on dollar strength. Will it break $100 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Crude crashing on dollar strength. Will it break $100 today? And she's gone - nine handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, sandy beach said: And she's gone - nine handle. CL oil futures now at $98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 minute ago, sandy beach said: CL oil futures now at $98. Citi strategist Francesco Martoccia is projecting $65 (even $45) oil if recession ensues by the end of 2023. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 forecasting "if" in 18 months. Daring stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 Recession? What Recession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 and another Protected Day....... Yields lower, "growth" "spec" assets higher............ recession, who gives a F..... its all good....... >: and another Daily Tail for the fraudex charts >:: and back to 3820 with another miracle of "Free Markets" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 5, 2022 Report Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Recession? What Recession? Thank you. 😎 Fits with seasonslity. July usually isn‘t that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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