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The Silence of the Bears - 6/28/22


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8 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Oh is this going to end badly. Chasing the last decade's winning horse. 

Right.

New trading „systems“ always reflect the market regime of roughly the past decade. No wonder Antonacci came up with „Dual Momentum“ in 2014 and not say in 1997. We had two large bears in 2000-03 and 2007-09 AND we had large swings in the USD, thst‘s why Dual Momentum worked. It underperforms since 2009…

Latest stuff is the following: You are not fully invested in stocks, but you add no matter what at a drawdown of 20%, you then add at 40% and gawd beware at minus 60%. This reflects the regime since 2009. This system will underperform from now on, betcha.

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They don‘t talk much about it, if at all, but quite sure one of the targets of the CB‘s is the total destruction of Buttcoin.

if liqui stays tight, what it most likely will, Buttcoin won‘t stop falling and some/all of these Buttcoin ETF‘s will implode. But there will be no bail out, cause they are not part of the „Club“. See there is no Bittcoin ETF from Deutsche Bank 😉

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The Fed stress tests assumed -55% in stocks 40% in CRE, and the Fed says that the banks would still have adequate capital. First of all, it means that it thinks it can let that happen.

Second of all, it's wrong.  The dominoes will start falling well before those parameters are hit. 

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