DrStool Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Blastoff! 3/17/03 The market spoke. We have no choice but to listen. A few weeks back Doc showed you the propensity of unwinding bubbles to launch monster rallies 36 to 39 months from the bubbles peak. It happened to the US stock market in 1932, the Japanese market in 1993, the gold market in 1983. After 3 years of constant declines short positions build to gargantuan proportions. The pressure cooker blows, and a massive short squeeze develops, historically lasting two to three months. Doc examines the lessons of history. He describes the dangers of the moment, examines the Feed and monetary data, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this moonshot is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight. Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!
Ned38 Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Uhhhhhhhhhhh Errrrrrrrrrr Ahhhhhhhhh Dunno I will say that I am gonna take this slowly and any longs for now will be daytrades. I certainly can't see going long levereged like I do short. If news is noise and what we are seeing is massive short covering and front running of the worlds most highly publicised rally then I will presume we will revert back to the downtrend once they sell the news....................Got that idea from a guy named Stool and another guy named Hurst. However if we are gonna have a major league bear market rally that follows historical precedent, then I think we will have plenty of time and pullbacks and all the other market behavior that goes along with bull markets. My problem is that I have never traded a bull market .......really Anyway your Naz targets of 1450 and up to 1470/1475 seem doable , beyond that I wanna wait and see----above 1521 is scary to think about both because of the bears that will get killed but also because the implication is that the later/final down moves will be all the more viscious
Metamucil Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 There are many views which can be concocted. First: What were the cycle conditions when the Nikkei and Dow '32 took off on their respective 'horror rallies'? Are cycle conditions anywhere close right now? Not according to what you have plotted re: mid year sync to the downside (6, 12 and 18 month cycles). I also believe that the falling 12 month cycle will cap big rallies to the upside. Moreover, this was not preceded by a liquidative scenario (high vix, etc.).... and mf cash is low. Vicious Feed will kill Buck and bonds.....and ignite a catastrophe. imo......this will fail.....but I have my big trigger levels carefully plotted. NDX~1155 and SPX~950 have to be taken out to signal a durable trend reversal (for my style) and a possible cyclic bull. Until then, there are many ways to skin this pile of dung.
Hypertiger Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 My theory on why we won't or can't get the Japan effect is because the whole world economic system is in collapse and with the debt backed system in place it is about having the money in the right place at the right time... When US began to rebound out of the great consumer credit depression of the early 1990's there was plenty of money to produce the flat up and down prop... Now that the whole system is caving in there is just not enough money to prop everything for very long... as soon as it looks like the jig is up the strength in the system is sold and poured into the weakness... everytime the liquidity is moved around it shrinks and also has a lesser effect... It is only a matter of time until they come up short... The right place at the right time is the name of the game... I was almost going to take the plunge in DECEMBER but now it seems like suicide... I'll just keep stacking silver for now...
TheMotleyStool Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 All I've heard for months is how the shorts were scared to death of a war rally, so they were using tight stops, buying calls to hedge their positions, covering into each weekend, etc. Now the market is rallying like all get out and the story is a huge short squeeze? I don't see how anyone could be positioned to get squeezed. Everyone knew this was coming. The fact that everyone knew it, and was positioned for the rally, might have prevented it from happening. Nope, we see the mother of all rallies into bad news just like Cramer and all the other talking heads proclaimed.
Yoshaviah Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Inverse head and shoulders to form on the HUI? If so it projects north of 180 to 187 or thereabouts. Look for the top in late May or early June. Will Uncle Buck give us the finger? Maybe so. The fuel for a rally in miners is now entering the markets. 1) Bond market sells off. 2) Broad rally takes the miners up with it. 3a) If they can't keep the POG down miners rally higher as makets begin to decline. 3b) If they can slam the POG before the stock market sells off then the HUI rally is toast. HUI might then only go to 150 - 157 or so, after which it could correct back to 105. And watch the bond market - da boyz will want to draw as much money as they can back in for a reload. Although some will leak out into communist-oddities. A rise in interst rates will accompany the decline in the NIKKiloadean, which will need to be watched closely becasue to the extend that that index fails to rally is the extent to which interest rates will rise on US bonds. Watch the ratio between the Wilshire 5000 and Uncle Buck. The upside limit on the market is set by this ratio. Buck is getting old and can only jump so high. Watch the ratios between the indices and the board market index to obtain some idea about sector strength, i.e., INDU, SPX, COMP, QQQ etc. Watch this one too as a pattern is set to repeat from Nov 01. The end of May period should show a bottom in the WLSH and a top in the XAU. Then a summer rally, and afterward down the crapper. So watch Buck, he is no Charlie Atlas anymore.
wndysrf Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Aloha Doc!!! Hey, you moved those blue bars marking the 10-12 week cycle lows. Before I left, the latest bar was within days of the Thursday turn. Now you moved it out further!!! That's Cheating!!! K Wave told me that trading the Rydex funds could be done nicely by following those cycle lows and highs..... Anyway, what are we going to do in this "New Bull Market?" Might as well go long some psycho screamers, and make bets on how long she can hold up to our abuse. The longer, the better....
chasmo Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Doc: My only area of knowledge that I trust though dont always trade on is the astro. We may rally for a bit here but I feel very strongly that the Bradley is correct in predicting another trend change this summer which assuming we go up this spring will be to the down side come mid summer. The astro is as bad or worse than anything we have seen in this bear market from July on and especially so in September and October. The astro as I use it which is mainly a device to predict sentiment has sentiment improoving from now till about the third week in June. The reason the Bradley had the thirteenth as a turn date was this was the day that the sun was seperating from the 90 degree angle to Saturn.This is a very strong positive sentiment indicater and Iam sure has a huge weighting in the Bradley model. But the Bradely does nothing to measure the over all importance of say, deteoriating world economic fundamentals, which means if indeed they are deteoriating that when Astro indicating negative sentiment comes along again the market will go down hard.That should be the case this summer and fall. Haveing said all that Iam like many still not convinced we go up steadily this spring and have a nice war that makes everyone happy. We probably do go up but with the kind of swings that drive the not so brave like myself into mostly staying on the side lines. Hopefully I will get back into Bearx this summer. For now I think I will just sit back and watch the show ulgly though it may be.
ShamPoo Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Give up for now Doc. The giddiness of war makes the news noise thing impossible to tune in or tune out. 100 billion clams (to start), thousands of real live dead people, cool new brilliant bombs booming away on our tubes. It?s a one time thing. Pat yourself on the back, take a nap, go do some pull ups. The lynching will be over soon and the crowds will disperse, leaving an ugly mess and a lingering stench. Back too normal. Mark likes to say something like, the entire world is trading off of AMAT?s lead. Didn?t they stoolcan a bunch of staff a month or two ago? And today another 14% gets flushed. Must be having some massive productivity gains there at AMAT.
Pretzel Logic Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 imo......this will fail.....but I have my big trigger levels carefully plotted. NDX~1155 and SPX~950 have to be taken out to signal a durable trend reversal (for my style) and a possible cyclic bull. Until then, there are many ways to skin this pile of dung. Agree, Metamucil. I wasn't at all impressed with the recent low. True, anything can happen -- but I think it's premature to call a bull victory here.
Oyster Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Rise and Shine.....YESTERDAY I showed the unfolding of clear 5 IMPULSIVE waves up......Therefore even if this is corrective in nature from lows last week THIS MUST MEAN that the most bearish case is a pullback from near hear before another surge UP like the one last week (ABC)...if we are correcting a larger degree UP into May then Bears beware.......we will go even higher than the 1st scenario......VERY SHORT TERM we are topping and I have taken short term shorts on board above 860 SP00 for B wave pullback I described earlier yesterday....once we have seen pullback expect a nother ROCKET SURGE Northwards.........I remain position long of course against the lows last week and will turn back round my scalp trades after this pullback we are about to see start today
phatbubble Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 doc, good move on abandoning the stooltrading cmaps yesterday (monday). i know you've often said that when a spat of intervention ends, the cycles head back to where they were going in the first place....but the bigger the jam and the more tinder it ignites, the less the market resembles the creature it was before. this creature now has had so many facejobs and so many prosthetic limbs, horns, spikes, fins, and gills attached that it looks like the monster from the relic. we're on the precipice of a global financial crisis and the various vested interests are staving it off on a weekly or even daily basis. without this, by now we'd be hundreds of SPX points lower. no need to tell us to have our heads examined if we think you're doing a good job. you are.
Oyster Posted March 18, 2003 Report Posted March 18, 2003 Wow...stops above 862 to 870...added shorts at 870
DrStool Posted March 18, 2003 Author Report Posted March 18, 2003 Mark- I didn't move the blue bars. Actually I tend to forget about the little suckers. It's where it has been since that edge of the page first showed up. I should have moved it back to where it turned last week. The text and pictures show clearly that the cycle turned. Leaving the blue bar in place was just an oversight on my part, but I think the maning of the overall article should have been clear. Sorry if I confused anyone.
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