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Where Rallies Go To Die 4/28/22


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I'm now safely ensconced in my new permanent home in Nice, and it's time to get to work!

We had yet another bear market rally overnight, on meta earnings. There is of course a difference between meta earnings and real earnings. I'll leave that discussion to the funny mentalists. 

Here's the main meal, the TA for today. I've drawn a new tentative downtrend channel on the hourly chart of the 24 hour ES S&P futures. That will give you an idea of where I think this is headed. If they don't clear 4250 straight away, then I expect we'll see 4175 again PDQ. Then we'll see! 

tvc_dbd2edaaa201708a0e43eb3da94f389f.png

 

And for the big picture:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. 

 

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WHAT A RIDE

The SPXL ETF (3x leveraged index ETF)  went from $19 to $146 from 20 March 2020 to 4 Jan 2021.

What a rise !!!!!!!!!!!!!

A 40% M2 print will tend to do that to a stock index.

Particularly a leveraged one.

And then it all fell apart.

Thats what tapering the big print and instituting some QT (mostly synthetic QT) will do to an overvalued leveraged stock index.   

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On 4/28/2022 at 7:35 AM, DrStool said:

Gold got sold, but will it hold?

Good morning everyone...

I'm going to be tossing my hat into the ring on that very subject myself - today.

I just rolled out of bed, so I'm going to rehash this chart right here for a  moment or two.

I know its boring, probably getting tired of seeing it yet again.  It's just the warm up to my chart that I'll be posting within the hour.

I need to post a precursor chart to the gold chart first though.  Huh?  Oh, you'll see....soon enough.

When I post a "Reference Chart"  I ask you to please take the time to give it the once over and for those serious about adding "arrows to your quiver", please download it for future reference. 

Just about everything I mention for the next two months will reference these charts.

Until then...

 

The window is open from here until the 30th of April at midnight CST.

Anything can happen(or not)

TCG

In light of Doc's comment(or not) on the euro this morning. 

In the UUP...that res at 27...wasn't even a blip on the radar.  Watching 28...

 

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Again.  To understand most of what I'll be commenting on over the next two months.  You'll need the Twin Peaks Reference Chart and it also wouldn't hurt to have a copy of this handy as well.

"Did I hear you mention...the whole world depends on the ^HUI pattern chart at this time?"  Yes, you did. From my perspective the whole world will follow the ^HUI Master Pattern Chart to its completion. 

Although, each individual market will vary in "distortion" based on liquidity(and excess). 

Expect the US to lead in both departments.

 

75% of all comments will be based on one chart or the other...

With that said...if you looked over the Twin Peaks Reference Chart...this should be a walk in the park. 

Smile...

 

The GLD is in the "RIGHT SIDE" dominant position.

I'm going to say it one more time to drive the point home, then never mention it again.

Cash. Is. A. Solid. Position. At. This. Time.

Later?  Not so much.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

oh...and...

Why do I not follow the gold and silver contract instead of the GLD and the SLV?  Simple.  One of the five methods I use for analysis(you've seen three so far) depends on up and down volume(over time), as well as the volume being released at the swing points.  

The contracts fail in their lack of continuity.

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