DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 There's always a rally somewhere. Can you see it? I call this The Liquidity Trade. It's 3 1/2 points off the low of 8 days ago. Not much. Not good. The TLT of course is a proxy for the bond market. It's the 20 year Treasury bond ETF. If you are still holding bonds, what can I say but, "Oh the humanity." But I warned you. I've been screaming to GTFO since August 2020. But there's still a lot more cash coming into the market from T-bill paydowns in May, and that's short term bullish for the 10 year. I think it will drop below 2.65 and that will trigger a lot of short covering in the futures. So the 10 year could target 2.50. Another gift rally for the longs to take as an exit. But they won't. Tons of Cash, Not In Use, Signals this Huge Change in the Market While also expecting a short term rally in stocks has been the wrong conclusion to reach on that, at least my technical output, which is more mechanical and less discretionary, has been more on the money. As for today, it's Dead Cat Bounce Day. The ES 24 hour S&P futures are off the low of yesterday's sheeting of the bed. But they hit resistance at 4220 in the 4-5 AM hour in New York. Now the bulls must show up, or that will be the zenith for the day. Looks to me as if they really need to clear 4235 to get anything significant going on the upside. Failing that, I'd look for this to go back and make a double bottom, where they'll try again. And eventually fail. And oh gold. Ugly. Will gold bugs get slaughtered again? My thoughts on that. Meanwhile, BTC is out on a ledge. If it starts to curl upward before breaking 37,000, bullish. But if that breaks, I say it's over. Say Kaddish for Crypto. Meanwhile for my fellow American expats living in Europe, while earning our incomes in doolahs, this is going well for us, not so well for Euro peeins. The euro is now targeting $1.05 in the short run and about $1.03 a little further out. The euro has broken a 15 year trendline. If it doesn't hold $1.03, it will reach parity with the dollar. As long as the Fed is tight as a drum, taking dollars out of the world financial system, and the ECB isn't, or is less so, this will continue. And for the big picture: Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip Flop April 25, 2022 Ugly Whipsaw Revives Crash Potential in Stocks April 25, 2022 Tons of Cash, Not In Use, Signals this Huge Change in the Market April 23, 2022 Sell Gold in May and Go Away? April 19, 2022 Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 euro shits the bed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 This is the US Doodah index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 Every imported product is getting cheaper in the US and all products priced in doodahs are getting more expensive everywhere in the world. Including Philadelphia cream cheese. OK, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 45 minutes ago, DrStool said: euro shits the bed again. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 This market is chaos. Looks like Monday. These spike rallies are short covering. Once they're exhausted there's even less potential demand ahead, and the relentless sliding resumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 No argument from me on that position... A few more comparison charts. I posted these because we were discussing the key 4200 level at the swing point on the S&P. I wanted to show other issues on both sides of their respective swings. I've moved back over to the DJI. I'm working on a few charts to this effect. I'm also working on another chart that is in a MAJOR Bubble. Hint? It's yellow(kind of) and you don't make cakes out of it. BEAR's repeating... If you don't short..."For a Time", Cash. Is. A. Solid. Position. Later on? Not so much... I'm beginning to believe people still don't see what is going on here right before their eyes. They're not waking up to it yet... This is a smackdown already in progress and the March 23, 2020 lows are the magnet for most issues. The liquidity gods giveth...and taketh away. Again...the formations are complete. The only thing left is...the downside. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, Jimi said: Wow The daily chart looks like the hourly chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 The weekly chart has that farmmilier pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: No argument from me on that position... A few more comparison charts. I posted these because we were discussing the key 4200 level at the swing point on the S&P. I wanted to show other issues on both sides of their respective swings. I've moved back over to the DJI. I'm working on a few charts to this effect. I'm also working on another chart that is in a MAJOR Bubble. Hint? It's yellow(kind of) and you don't make cakes out of it. BEAR's repeating... If you don't short..."For a Time", Cash. Is. A. Solid. Position. Later on? Not so much... I'm beginning to believe people still don't see what is going on here right before their eyes. They're not waking up to it yet... This is a smackdown already in progress and the March 23, 2020 lows are the magnet for most issues. The liquidity gods giveth...and taketh away. Again...the formations are complete. The only thing left is...the downside. Best, TCG Regarding Uranium and Sprott. Sprott tried the same thing in the mid 2000's with Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprott_Molybdenum_Participation_Corporation Ran that commodity up like uranium, then when investors tried to get out it sunk like the titanic losing bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, DrStool said: The daily chart looks like the hourly chart. Fartuculs will do that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 SYSTEM TO THE DOWN Still lots of overvalued stocks that need to be adjusted down to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 ph... My comment was in reference to gold, but I remember the issue. I expect more of this to crop up next go around. I'm actually looking forward to seeing what they come up with next. These guys are always quite creative when it comes to separating people from their capital. Never ceases to amaze me. The first time I heard the line, "What is a mine?". It's a whole with a liar on top. I couldn't help but smile...somebody nailed it in one sentence better than I could in 1000. Towards the end of the run I had to come up with a term for 1/2 the miners I was being asked to take a look at. I called it..the Junk Pile. "Oh, so you're playing in the junk pile again." Can't count how many times I had to type out those words. Best, TCG oh...and... As mentioned already, I sold my yellowcake, platinum and copper issues and kept the free shares. Currently hedging them with SH purchased at 14.23 or was it 14.32...can't remember. Who cares. 14 something. Won't revisit commenting on SH until it's popped through 15.25 and held it through a retest. Then...we can discuss the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 43 minutes ago, Jimi said: Fartuculs will do that.... You mean fartcalls. Yes, I was going to point that out but I fartgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 The euro has landed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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