DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 What bear market rallies look like for 500 Alex. This looks headed for 4330 or 4350. Straight up. Then start to bleed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 1 hour ago, potatohead said: Lee, Excellent stuff. I have to say, your analysis has put to shame the Fintwit crowd and many of the highly regarded experts. The reasoning and analysis speaks for itself. Thank you as always, sir! I just don't have the patience or desire to argue with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 What exactly would be the point? They're talking cultism, and I'm trying to ascertain facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 How will Musk owning Twitter change that? It's worrisome. Kind of like Rupert Murdoch controlling FauxNews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: Quelle est la raison du jour? je me demande. SPX 4200 Fed Put? or Twitter Board Folds - "Unanimously Approves" Musk Taking Firm Private For $44 Billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, DrStool said: Quelle est la raison du jour? je me demande. Pas de raison. C'est simplement la meme connerie d'hier et de demain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 Ciao and bonne chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 Quite the spread today. Perfect BTTB on the SPX, Doc nailed the low. Saw nothing today that caught me off guard or seemed out of the ordinary. I'm in wait and see mode. Until tomorrow... TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 J'ai apprend un nouveau mot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 As I was leaving...thought I'd read the last post and noticed... 4 pages on a Monday? Interesting. Ciao, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: As I was leaving...thought I'd read the last post and noticed... 4 pages on a Monday? Interesting. Ciao, TCG Bottom of some significance. Rally in the 10 year too. That's been overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 Pinched this from Twitter. It's supposedly the financing terms for Musk's acquisition of... Twitter. They are... completely insane. Someone check my math... weighted average rate is SOFR + 4.74%. SOFR follows the Fed: So, let's entertain that two more rate increases of 50bps gets done at the next two meetings. That'd put SOFR at ~1.3%. 1.3% + 4.74% = ~6.04%. Let's call it 6%. 6% on $25b = $1.5b in annual interest. Next, let's look at Twitter's financials the past two years: specifically, operating profit (i.e., gross profits - SG&A).* 2021 = $3.279B - $1.760b = $1.519b 2020 = $2.349B - $1.450b = $0.899b So... financing of this deal under a 50bps/next two meetings consumes all Twitter's recently observed annual operating profits. Let's assume simply a Fed panic and SOFR of 0%: annual financing still would be 4.74% X $25b = $1.185b. Goldman Sachs has the Fed capping out at 3-3.25%. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-research/goldman-sachs-sees-five-rate-hikes-in-2023-idUSL3N2VO0WL Just for giggles, what if the Fed loses control and has to ramp rates aggressively to say... 5.25%? 5.25% + 4.74% = ~10%. Well, that math is easy: 10% of $25b = $2.5b. The terms of this deal appear... somewhat... "orthogonal" to some ROI associated with Musk's $21b capital outlay. But then, most regrettably, I'm not a genius multi-billionaire founder of visionary companies. I'm just a guy with a calculator.... *Twitter includes R&D as an operating expense, but I don't want to include that because it's a discretionary use of capital/past profits to generate future profits: I'm only interested in observed profits generated by business operations. Data from here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/financials/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.