DrStool Posted April 13, 2022 Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 I can't wait to see the down. Indeed, yesterday's double bottom looks like the 5 day cycle low I was expecting. But the up phase has been punk so far. When up phases stay flat, the down phases that follow usually have one of two common paths. They either stay flat too, as the market loses all impetus in both directions. Or the down phase goes down hard and fast. In other words, a crash. Which will this be? I think the key level this morning will be 4454 on the ES S&P futures, in the opening hour of New York trading. If that's cleared then there should be more upside. But a rollover below that trendline at any time would be a sign that we should expect something more dramatic to the downside. The key sport level is actually a little below yesterday's low. The trendline at 4375 looks to be a potential inflection point. Either it bounces from there or above, or we go much lower later today. Liquidity will be bullish starting Thursday when the Fed's MBS purchase settlement week for this month starts. But right now, it's not bullish yet. Next week the T-bill paydowns that have already begun will start getting even bigger. The market will be awash in cash in the last two weeks of April. Read all about that and stay on top of what really matters for the big picture here: https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ But wait. There's MORE! Gold’s Last Chance Before Summer Vacation April 12, 2022 Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022 Swing Trade Chart Picks Maintain Sell Side Tilt April 11, 2022 There are Profit Opportunities in a Rangebound Market April 10, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Ciao! I'm heading out on this gorgeous day here in Cannes. I'll see you this afternoon US Eastern time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 13, 2022 Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 Well the money has to go somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 UPDATE- At Its Rotten Core, Inflation Surprised Only the Fed LEE ADLER LEE'S FREE THINKING APRIL 13, 2022 0 COMMENTS This is an update to yesterday’s inflation news to include today’s news on my favorite inflation measure on the chart. That’s the PPI, Final Demand,… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 At the close today I'll be running an update to the site to install a security patch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 If they clear 4432, that could be a little bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 13, 2022 Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 Why did the Fed cancel this? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS Is there something like it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRESBAL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 All reserves are excess because required reserves are effectively zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 13, 2022 Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 No US mkt Friday........ so a program mark-up for tomorrows monthly options....... >: 5 weeks before the next montly in May (the bonus week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 13, 2022 Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 Why does every Local and National Newscast say.......(Goin' on 2 months) "The Fed is going to raise interst rates and tackle inflation".........(SICK) Repeat a lie, and............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 13, 2022 Report Share Posted April 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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