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The Range, The Range- Here's Which Way It Breaks 3/4/22


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WHAT IS PRICE??????

Price equals the function of information divided by time.

Stock prices and any other asset prices are "particles" brought into being by the interaction of the information field with the time field.

The information field acts on the time field to constanty alter the value of the price particle.

However the information in the information field (both past information which is known and future information which is not curently known but is estimated) is viewed through the markets collective bias lense to determine the price value.

This market bias lense unreasonably discounts the probabilities of certain events:

It tends to ignore the probability of wars.

It tends to ignore most fat tail events (see the writings of Nassim Taleb).

It tends to ignore the lack of property rights and legal protections of those rights in certain countries.

It tends to ignore acounting frauds/irregularities.

It tends to ignore value metrics.

It tends to ignore the fact that bubles and fads eventually end.

The markets bias lense ignores a lot of things.

It is constantly under weighting some types of information and over weighting others. 

Understand what the markets bias lense unfairly ignores and unreasonably discounts and you have an inbuilt advantage over the market.

Your own individual investor lense needs to be clearer, less distorted and see farther than the markets lense.

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2 hours ago, sandy beach said:

Incredible! Where else can one go to read such thoughtful analysis as one finds here every single day.

In August, Jimbo will celebrate his 20th anniversary posting pearls of wisdom here on the Stool, from Down Under.  Thank you, Professor! 

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