DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Report Posted March 4, 2022 I'm not saying that I know which way they'll break, just that today could be the day. The hourly charts of the ES, S&P 500 futures are extremely neutral. Is that even possible? Extremely neutral? But that's where the hourly oscillators are. They've come down to around their zero lines, which is where they troughed 2 days ago. Any additional decline from here, coupled with an hourly close below 4279 would suggest more downside, possibly severe. The conventional measured move implication of such a breakdown would be around 4150. Looking the other way, if the ES is above 4344 at 10 AM in New York, that would break the 1 day downtrend, and allow for a move back toward the top of the range at 4421.6. The range has been crossed multiple times over the past week. It's likely to be thin. The market could zip back to the top of the range quickly. Getting out the top would be a whole nudder story. Looking at the two day wave pattern over the past week, it suggests a little bit of upside this morning, then down in the afternoon. But ear regardless, all trading within the range is noise. We need a breakout for a strong signal of a move that will last more than an hour. Meanwhile, the big picture: Withholding Tax Surge in February was All Inflation A Bottom, of Sorts Swing Trade Chart Picks Go Haywire Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead Liquidity With Eyes Glued to Ukraine If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 I live in Europe, but earn my income in US doodahs, and hold cash and other assets in USD. So, in a sense, I am effectively short the euro on balance. There have been times where that has worked well for me, and other times where it hasn't. Since I've been traveling, I haven't tried to time the swings in the currency. But now that I'm settling down in Nice, I intend to purchase an apartment here. And I also want to hedge against the rally in the euro that is sure to come. It's like an extra added layer of inflation for me on top of rising prices here. I went through it in Croatia last year when the euro rallied to around 1.25. I definitely felt the pinch. So I'm watching the currency closely. I'll be buying euros when there are signs of a reversal in the EUR/USD. The euro is crashing and is now targeting 108 on the basis of 3 month and 6 month cycle projections. A one year cycle projection points to around 106. Trend support is at 109.8 today. If that breaks, the next target trendline would be around 108.5 in the next couple of days. If the euro bounces off that first trendline, any rebound that rolls over below 111.7 would be bearish. If they clear that, then I'd look for a move to the 1.13 area as the next target. Meanwhile, gold is coming out of a beautiful bowl base that conventionally measures to 2150. But it faces significant resistance at 1975. For the big picture on that, and our swinging mining picks, see: Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 Have to wonder if we are days away from our demise, and the demise of the human race.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 I decided that I am not a buyer at 109.60. Cancel GTC.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 4255. The conventional measured move implication of a breakdown from this pattern would be 4175. Multiple sport levels would need to be broken. 4175 is a major sport level.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 The Russian Oligarch Money Laundering Escape Rally in BTC seems to have run its course.
Jorma Posted March 4, 2022 Report Posted March 4, 2022 The Fed Reverse Repoops are rolling over but damn, bill paydowns next week. I think they might be flailing at the wind right now.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 Could make a case for 2-3 day cycle low right here, but not if they take out 4279.
Jimi Posted March 4, 2022 Report Posted March 4, 2022 European markets getting hammered again. Doc, you seeing any impact on real estate pricing or demand in Nice? Or is it too soon?
potatohead Posted March 4, 2022 Report Posted March 4, 2022 5 hours ago, DrStool said: I live in Europe, but earn my income in US doodahs, and hold cash and other assets in USD. So, in a sense, I am effectively short the euro on balance. There have been times where that has worked well for me, and other times where it hasn't. Since I've been traveling, I haven't tried to time the swings in the currency. But now that I'm settling down in Nice, I intend to purchase an apartment here. And I also want to hedge against the rally in the euro that is sure to come. It's like an extra added layer of inflation for me on top of rising prices here. I went through it in Croatia last year when the euro rallied to around 1.25. I definitely felt the pinch. So I'm watching the currency closely. I'll be buying euros when there are signs of a reversal in the EUR/USD. The euro is crashing and is now targeting 108 on the basis of 3 month and 6 month cycle projections. A one year cycle projection points to around 106. Trend support is at 109.8 today. If that breaks, the next target trendline would be around 108.5 in the next couple of days. If the euro bounces off that first trendline, any rebound that rolls over below 111.7 would be bearish. If they clear that, then I'd look for a move to the 1.13 area as the next target. Meanwhile, gold is coming out of a beautiful bowl base that conventionally measures to 2150. But it faces significant resistance at 1975. For the big picture on that, and our swinging mining picks, see: Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead Had to say it...Gold forming a Bouillabaisse
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jimi said: European markets getting hammered again. Doc, you seeing any impact on real estate pricing or demand in Nice? Or is it too soon? just a gut sense from watching the flow of alerts of new listings in my email that there's more inventory coming on. But haven't seen much quality that I'd jump at. On the other hand, calls on my FL property have dropped off sharply. Still negotiating a new offer, with a backup offer in the can at a lower price, and another showing on Sunday. Almost all of the showings have resulted in at least a verbal offer. But when people come down to signing a final contract and not backing out, they get cold feet. This to me is a sign that the market has topped out. People sense that they don't want to pay that much. I'm playing with fire here. I may have missed the train when I walked away after the first buyer tried to renegotiate at the end of the inspection period. Then the second buyer took that walk voluntarily. Now the third buyer is dragging their feet because they have their own house to sell and their waiting for their buyer to get their mortgage commitment. There's a daisy chain here. But I figure if need to come down on my price, I would expect to pay even less here. Then there's the nuke angle. In which case, housing sale chess is just fun and games before The End.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, potatohead said: Had to say it...Gold forming a Bouillabaisse Ah geeze. I shoulda thought of that. You should Tweet it now, otherwise, I'm gonna steal it.
DrStool Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Posted March 4, 2022 Just now, DrStool said: Ah geeze. I shoulda thought of that. You should Tweet it now, otherwise, I'm gonna steal it. Or is it going around already?
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