Lets talk about Gold Drop then when will we get real Bottom

[jp6]

Is there any traders out there traded 2001 Bull Market and also 2018 Bull run?  People who brought it in 2001 are still ahead, unless they Loaded up on Miners.

I sold My Gold In August 2020 and balance during the Silver squeeze also Lucky enough to sell it near top in 2011. 

My plan was to Buy gold during Santa time in 2020, chart did not feel right and stayed away from PM. was expecting Lower Triple top in August 2021 like 2012, should have reached $1950 like 2012, Some how it toped out early @ $1850

What we have is Just like before another Bounce. extremely unlikely to take out last high. 

Bounce and consolidation like before or it head south without much consolidation are 2 scenario's out there. Last one is extremely bearish unless 2008/9 type scenarios plays out.

I would like to hear the other side if any or any other scenarios

 

 

 

[potatohead]

57 minutes ago, jp6 said:

Is there any traders out there traded 2001 Bull Market and also 2018 Bull run?  People who brought it in 2001 are still ahead, unless they Loaded up on Miners.

I sold My Gold In August 2020 and balance during the Silver squeeze also Lucky enough to sell it near top in 2011. 

My plan was to Buy gold during Santa time in 2020, chart did not feel right and stayed away from PM. was expecting Lower Triple top in August 2021 like 2012, should have reached $1950 like 2012, Some how it toped out early @ $1850

What we have is Just like before another Bounce. extremely unlikely to take out last high. 

Bounce and consolidation like before or it head south without much consolidation are 2 scenario's out there. Last one is extremely bearish unless 2008/9 type scenarios plays out.

I would like to hear the other side if any or any other scenarios

 

 

 

Appreciate the charts. I look at this from the physical world. The metals market has been deleveraging for over a year. Banks have been getting out of the bullion business.  The physical world has the opportunity to greater influence price discovery. The big price declines have been a deleveraging event in the paper markets versus the physical market. Central Banks have started to buy physical , along with new players such as Palantir, etc. long specs are at their lowest levels back to March 2020.

[jp6]

You may be right that deleveraging is taking place. As you know leverage takes price up and deleveraging takes it down. Then there are the Miners who keep selling in the market. 

I will look to buy Physical CGT free Gold coins, Paper Gold & Silver, 2008/09 event or depending where DXY is. So far nothing I see apart from DXY, Popcorns and some Put time to time

If DXY get strong then Central bankers won't have $$$ to buy much Gold

I searched  Palantir. Don't think they buy gold. It's all about big data analytics.

[jp6]

Gold miners looks in worse shape then Gold.

Gold went over 2011 high while miners couldn't even get near 2011 high. On weekly chart MA have crossed just like 2012.

Does that look like more pain is on the way or Bullish.

It's only worth buying miner's once Gold has made bottom

I Just hate pain. It's because don't like loosing capital at my age

[potatohead]

2 hours ago, jp6 said:

You may be right that deleveraging is taking place. As you know leverage takes price up and deleveraging takes it down. Then there are the Miners who keep selling in the market. 

I will look to buy Physical CGT free Gold coins, Paper Gold & Silver, 2008/09 event or depending where DXY is. So far nothing I see apart from DXY, Popcorns and some Put time to time

If DXY get strong then Central bankers won't have $$$ to buy much Gold

I searched  Palantir. Don't think they buy gold. It's all about big data analytics.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-spac-investment-gold-bars-51629150154

https://www.metalsmine.com/news/1101658-palantir-buys-507m-in-gold-bars-accepts-payment

 

[potatohead]

1 hour ago, jp6 said:

Gold miners looks in worse shape then Gold.

Gold went over 2011 high while miners couldn't even get near 2011 high. On weekly chart MA have crossed just like 2012.

Does that look like more pain is on the way or Bullish.

It's only worth buying miner's once Gold has made bottom

I Just hate pain. It's because don't like loosing capital at my age

stopped trading miners years ago. That is a pure timing game. The fund I manage is 99% physical held outside the financial system. The whole thing is a confidence game. No one knows when the music stops. One can only prepare. At some point the metals go not sure about the miners. Some lost their shirt in the last run 10 years ago due to hedging.

[jp6]

8 hours ago, potatohead said:

stopped trading miners years ago. That is a pure timing game. The fund I manage is 99% physical held outside the financial system. The whole thing is a confidence game. No one knows when the music stops. One can only prepare. At some point the metals go not sure about the miners. Some lost their shirt in the last run 10 years ago due to hedging.

Whole thing is confidence game, you are right that no one knows when another Nixon shock will come. Presently we have open capital market with rising debt only option they have is YCC (Yield curve control) like before. That time there was no open FX market, rationing, shortage of goods, I don't think capital market were open like now with funds moving instantly. 

Next shock will be capital control, YCC, price control and devalue Dollar. We are not there yet. Same as they done during the war and after the WW2. That time FX was fix this time it will stay open. Everyone will get paid back in devalued Butt wipes. Gold will run like hell just like 1970. 

Another option is to make Fed Money legal tender. Last page

There has been so much inflow into stocks and bond due to Zero returns. Only place for savers is in the Fed casino. How much spare cash will they have for the Casino with rising Inflation? Not Much

You know once you are loaded up in risky assets there is no way out unless it keeps going up. If it stops and head south. capital goes down also can't leverage your capital. margin call if it's leverage.

That what's happening in Gold. other assets will do the same. 

I am watching USD for where market will head. Strong USD is bad for the market for now. Weakness means smart people are looking for a different out come. 

[jp6]

8 hours ago, potatohead said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-spac-investment-gold-bars-51629150154

https://www.metalsmine.com/news/1101658-palantir-buys-507m-in-gold-bars-accepts-payment

 

Palantir Invests in More SPAC Companies, and Buys $51 Million in Gold Bars

 

SPAC is a con where you will loose your Money like Y2K.  Also they brought it high so holder have weak hands in the casino. 

 

[potatohead]

6 hours ago, jp6 said:

Palantir Invests in More SPAC Companies, and Buys $51 Million in Gold Bars

 

SPAC is a con where you will loose your Money like Y2K.  Also they brought it high so holder have weak hands in the casino. 

 

Price does not matter. The key take away is the network effect these tech giants gravitate towards. The question is, will others follow as deleveraging in the metals space continues. Meaning physical is being demanded as leveraged instruments are in decline. This spells opportunity longer term.

[jp6]

Everything changed once Russia $$$ got cancelled and trade embargo happened. It happened to japan before Pearl harbour. Fall of Communism was a catalyst for commodities price deflation. Cancelling Russia is a catalyst for Inflation.

Instead  Deflation we are dealing with Inflation. Inflation make asset price deflate slowly. We will not see Stock Market crash but it will be like 1966-1982 where biggest drop will come near the end.

I believe Gold is making a base camp to climb mount Everest.  as you know if you want to climb Everest then Base Camp is a must. No one buys the Bottom most like to buy the top which will be in the News. 

First Chart is Gold/Dow and 2nd Chart inflation adjusted Dow chart. It has been deflating since late 2021 just like 1966