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Guess Who's Back from Holiday? 5/32/21

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That's right. Da bulls. A tad early for a 5 day cycle projection but if this just hangs around here for a few hours, we'll be looking 4235-40. 

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When I zoom in to the 30 minute bars, I get a 2-3 day cycle projection around 4238, the old high. But trend resistance is indicated around 4229. 

tvc_d38975e985bc7d058d320ad5966fa2d0.png

The cycle indicators are bullish on both time frames, although they're getting near their usual top zones. That leaves room for a pop going into NY open. Then we'll see what transpires in the early going in regular hours. Pullback or breakout? 

RIght now, at 6:10 AM in NY, 4221 is the number to beat. Welcome back to your screens, stock traders!

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Meanwhile, 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

But trend resistance is indicated around 4229.

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SO INFLATION IS ABOUT 4%

That makes the yield on the ten year bond minus 2.5%.

A nice inflationary gift to assets with high J Numbers

(I decided to rebrand the IG number to a J number ...after my nom de plume)

J Number Definition:

The J number is the annual increase in the owners equity value in an asset's price, above the rate of inflation, due to the transfer of the real value of the debt attached to that asset, through the inflationary mechanism, from the lender of the debt to the owner of the asset. 

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THE FEDS $500 BILLION REVERSE REPO

Thats a risk off action.

A lot of the smart money has cashed in their chips and gone risk off for the rest of the year.

So the FED had to mop up $500 billion of loans to hedge funds etc that was no longer needed for speculative leveraged plays.

This is probably due to the Archegos blow up and the banks tightening their lending criteria and increasing their margin requirements.

This will probably make short squeezes a lot less frequent going forward. 

The world has been awash in cheap speculative credit priovided by the FED that has lead to an orgy of overvalued assets (including the ramping of commodity prices).

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