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The "Looming Repo Crisis" and the Looming Breakout 5/21/21

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5 day cycle indicators have gone to the sell side here in the wee hours in New Yak, but the 5 day cycle projection still points to 4195. That's a little lower than yesterday's late projection, but still well above the highs of this rebound. I wouldn't rule out a move toward it later today. 

To do it, they first need to hold above rising trend sport now at 4145, heading for 4160 at the NY open. They also would need to clear resistance at 4169. If they break that uptrend, bears' ball. 

tvc_3615bf8270d1d54baa0efd7797af8dd0.png

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Meanwhile, 

 

LEE'S FREE THINKING

About the Reverse Repo (RRP) “Crisis”

by Lee Adler •  • 0 Comments

Zero Hedge, in its inimitable, breathless, and incomprehensible fashion referred to a looming crisis in the Fed’s Reverse Repo program.

This is an important issue, but there’s a lot of confusion around it, so I want to try to explain exactly what’s going on and why it’s not a crisis now, but is a mirror on a process that will lead to one. We know exactly why, and we know when.

Treasury Adds to Fed QE to Create Bullish Cash Tsunami

 

 

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One could make an argument that Wall Street is going to use Bitcoin/Crypto as the fall guy if any deleveraging occurs. Same old Same old.

potatoehead is trying to make his observation go viral....

Bulls won yesterday's screen game by 59 to 6. That includes 4 sell signals on inverse ETFs counted as bullish. That's a huge margin, second recently only to the 153 to 6 bull stampede last Friday, which suggested a new bull swing phase.

So far, it hasn't materialized, but it still could. In fact, if I believe this data, and I do, I'd say that it still should. Over the last 5 days there's only been one day where bearish signals exceeded bullish. That was yesterday's 29 to 21 bear win where 6 of the sell signals were bond ETFs. The net of 23-21 was hardly a bearish signal for common stocks. 

The 5 day total is now 287 to 69 sells, a spread of +218. That's even more than yesterday's +192. These follow readings of+166 and +144, the previous two days. This stat just keeps getting more bullish despite the market being rangebound. It shows that bunch of stocks are set up for rallies. There are no guarantees of course, but the setups revealed by these unbiased screens are what they are. I don't manipulate them. I don't argue with them.

The market averages have been volatile but rangebound as the internals strengthened. It suggests basing. It suggests that the dealers are shaking the trees to pick up the low hanging ripe fruit inventory. We'll just have to see if the numbers are right. And that should happen over the next couple of sessions. If these numbers mean anything, a lot of stocks will break out to the upside, or at least move up to the top of their ranges.  

I screen all stocks and ETFs from the NYSE and NASD, excluding those with less than an average of 1 million shares per day traded, and selling for less than $6 per share.  The table below shows swing trade buy signals and sell signals from yesterday's action. The numbered columns represent the time frame of the support or resistance trend around which the signals were generated.  

Here is today's  output. The number 1 indicates that the condition is true. 0 is false. The numbers on the right half of the chart represent the time frames in days of the support or resistance areas where the signal was triggered. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
ACGL.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ACWI.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
AGG 1 0 0 0 0 1
AMT 1 0 0 0 0 1
ATVI.O 1 0 0 0 1 1
BIV 1 0 0 0 0 1
CAG 1 0 0 0 0 1
CAH 1 0 0 0 1 0
CB 1 0 0 0 0 1
CHKP.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
CTMX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
D 1 0 0 1 0 0
DOC 1 0 0 1 1 0
DQ 1 0 0 0 0 1
EQR 1 0 0 0 0 1
ESRT.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
EWA 1 0 0 0 0 1
FB.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
FPE 1 0 0 0 0 1
FTV 1 0 0 1 1 0
GOOGL.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
HGEN.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
IEI.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IGIB.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IVV 1 0 0 0 0 1
IWF 1 0 0 0 1 0
IXUS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
LPX 1 0 0 0 0 1
MGI.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
MKC 1 0 0 0 1 0
MNST.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
OSTK.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
PAAS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PAYX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PEG 1 0 0 0 0 1
PHM 1 0 0 0 0 1
PRTS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SBRA.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
SCZ.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SHY.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPLG.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPXL.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPY 1 0 0 0 0 1
SSO 1 0 0 0 0 1
TDC 1 0 0 0 0 1
TEVA.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
UPRO.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
VCIT.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
VGIT.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
VOO 1 0 0 0 0 1
VRNT.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
VT 1 0 0 0 0 1
XLY 1 0 0 0 1 0
YNDX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ZTO 1 0 0 0 1 0
CARG.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
CHD 0 1 0 1 0 1
KAR 0 1 1 0 0 0
KSS 0 1 0 0 0 1
RAD 0 1 0 0 0 1
SDS 0 1 0 0 0 1
SH 0 1 0 0 0 1
SPXS.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SPXU.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SSRM.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
Totals 55 10 1 8 13 47

 

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like using your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 


Every weekend I use the previous week's screens to select charts that have potential for a move, and I post them for subscribers.  

Dodging Bullets – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 17, 2021

 
You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. Try it for 90 days risk free (first time subscribers).
 

 

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A few sample charts from today's screen that look interesting. These are NOT RECOMMENDATIONS.  They're interesting for different reasons. Feel free to comment. 


Click the chart to enlarge

image.png

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If they clear 4178 ES, it's a clear bottom breakout that will suck in AI, chart traders, bots, and other programs. Could be splosive. 

tvc_e9eb44f385c32f2739982da36607adc5.png

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I see Mike Derby did a story on the RRPs in WSJ today. I wonder what he said. I refuse to send my money to R. Murdoch.

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Possible reversal here. Sport at 4163. They need to break that for starters. 

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6 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I see Mike Derby did a story on the RRPs in WSJ today. I wonder what he said. I refuse to send my money to R. Murdoch.

Just googled Mike, Derby, RRP and came up with

Mike's Derby Picks and Retired Racehorse Project

https://thederbyhandicapper.com/tag/mikes-derby-picks/

I think there could be some correlation between retired race horses and ex Fed Chairpersons...both go on to greener pastures while leaving everyone who bet on them, broke.....

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30 minutes ago, potatohead said:

Just googled Mike, Derby, RRP and came up with

Mike's Derby Picks and Retired Racehorse Project

https://thederbyhandicapper.com/tag/mikes-derby-picks/

I think there could be some correlation between retired race horses and ex Fed Chairpersons...both go on to greener pastures while leaving everyone who bet on them, broke.....

LOL

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9 minutes ago, No Einstein said:

playing with charts and look what i found....if NEM breaks 80 it will be breaking out of a BOX pattern that goes back to 1986.....probably doesn't mean anything😒

qORJ6thD.png small.png

Our great friend David Mack, aka LeeWhee always loved those super long term charts. 

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If this market has a big problem, it's bitcoin. I think that there's a lot of leverage there that we don't know about. Speculators who hold BTC and US stocks will need to liquidate stocks if BTC keeps shitting the bed. 

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