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Sound and Fury Signifying? 5/20/21

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"Frustrating" is a word that doesn't do this market justice. Who's happy with this action? Day traders! That's who! The intraday patterns have been remarkably orderly.

For the rest of us, not so much. For we who are looking for swing trades of a couple weeks, well... We keep getting nicked with Montypythonian flesh wounds. 

 

Honestly, I'd love to short this mother to hell and just walk away for a few months, but I look at all this money being pumped into it,  the Fed with QE, and the Treasury with T-bill paydowns (recently at a pace of $40 billion/week), and I just can't do it. It would be malpractice. 

So, what's the bottom line for today?

If they hold the ES above 4084 this morning, bullish. Below 4077, probably bearish. In between, WTF knows. 

tvc_23ef7a6b45a715ea4d4d0dfcdddb0d7b.png

 

The cycle projections may know. The current 2-3 day cycle projection is 4125. The 30 minute bars look pretty bullish here at 7:00 AM ET USA. 

tvc_fe7752d47785cc0aca47afa3f813e034.png

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Treasury Adds to Fed QE to Create Bullish Cash Tsunami

 

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Well, they broke the BTC 9 month cycle projection with a few thousand to spare yesterday. 

tvc_9aa9ffe0de65a674d0688bdfd2ff3e0a.png

So, let's see how it looks on the 30 minute bars.

Trend resistance suggested at 40,500, and 42,500. They've broken the first slightly. 2-3 day cycle projection is around 44,500, give or take a zillion. 

tvc_946ad812efb2db7084c54d4291d3bb15.png 

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You keep saying the end is near... but not yet, there's a nice bump expected before the crash. You're not the only one either, seems to be the general consensus. More money from the fed and treasury are just keeping the crash at bay, Pushing on a string. That isn't bullish. If you're smart you know we are teetering on the edge. Don't look down! We keep getting these V bounces. Dip buyers have been well conditioned for years. Problem is for them to buy you first need a dip. We are treading water here, forming a top. Topping is a process. We may get another run up, but for how long? Who wants to trade that? Talk about risk! So the V runs out of steam as the dip traders take their profits and look for another dip. Nobody really believes we are going much higher with these valuations, but we can try to convince the fools to buy and be the bag holders. I think we're running out of fools that have cash. We are near peak leverage. All the risk is to the downside. It's getting pretty dangerous to be a bull. I'm day trading the he'll out of this and making crazy profits. You're right, that's where the action is now. So... if you can't beat 'em... 

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Or we could watch bitcoin. I don't care what it does. Got my $5 worth from coinbase for opening an account, but they won't get a dime from me. Anyone want $10? They are paying that to both parties for referrals. Not interested in that bubble. There are no fundamentals. It's the new gold, except it isn't. It's nothing but air. Talk about a bubble!

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NASDAQ and small caps now under their 50 day averages. S&P touched it yesterday. Again. It bounced, nice little gap to fill from the day before. After that, be very carefull. Don't look down...

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7 minutes ago, Mkucstars said:

S&P gap closed. Hourly chart shows right at the 50 hour average and overbought to get there. When it rolls over I will be short. This is fun!

Which indicator(s) are you using to show an overbought condition? 

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Bears won yesterday's screen game by 29 to 21. That's not a lot, especially considering that 6 of the sell signals were fixed income funds. This compares with Tuesday's 32 to 15 bull win. And we're still looking back at that 153 to 6 bull stampede last Friday, which suggested a new bull swing phase.  

The 5 day total is now 266 to 74 sells, a spread of +192. This stat just keeps getting more bullish despite the selloff. It follows a readings of+166 and +144, the previous two days.

The numbers are what they are. I don't argue with them. But the market averages have gone the other ways as the internals strengthened. We'll just have to see which was right. And that should happen over the next 2-3 sessions. 

I screen all stocks and ETFs from the NYSE and NASD, excluding those with less than an average of 1 million shares per day traded, and selling for less than $6 per share.  The table below shows swing trade buy signals and sell signals from yesterday's action. The numbered columns represent the time frame of the support or resistance trend around which the signals were generated.  

Here is today's  output. The number 1 indicates that the condition is true. 0 is false. The numbers on the right half of the chart represent the time frames in days of the support or resistance areas where the signal was triggered. 

 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
AMZN.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
POWW.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
CDAY.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TECL.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
EA.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
QYLD.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
HIG 1 0 0 0 0 1
INCY.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
NTLA.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
ITOT.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
EEM 1 0 0 0 0 1
LC 1 0 0 0 1 0
QLD 1 0 0 0 1 0
TQQQ.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
SPGI.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
STWD.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
VTI 1 0 0 0 0 1
VTR 1 0 0 0 0 1
WB.O 1 0 0 0 1 1
WSC.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
WETF.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
MO 0 1 0 0 0 1
AMGN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
ARMK.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
CNI 0 1 0 1 0 0
CARG.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
PRTS.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
CNX 0 1 0 0 0 1
GILD.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
HFC 0 1 0 0 0 1
HBAN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
PCY 0 1 1 0 0 0
SHYG.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
HYG 0 1 0 0 1 1
KRC 0 1 0 0 0 1
MAT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
NWSA.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
NKE 0 1 0 1 0 0
NVS 0 1 0 1 0 0
NTNX.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
PLYA.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
RDSa 0 1 1 0 0 0
RDSb 0 1 1 0 0 0
SBSW.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SJNK.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
JNK 0 1 0 0 1 1
SFM.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
URBN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VTRS.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
HYLB.K 0 1 0 0 1 1
Totals 21 29 5 3 15 31

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like using your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 


Every weekend I use the previous week's screens to select charts that have potential for a move, and I post them for subscribers.  

Dodging Bullets – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 17, 2021

 
 
You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. Try it for 90 days risk free (first time subscribers).
 

 

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

The cycle projections may know. The current 2-3 day cycle projection is 4125. The 30 minute bars look pretty bullish here at 7:00 AM ET USA. 

 

Well, that's done, and then some. I want to update, but charts are down. 

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SPX 60M chart. Not counting yesterday, I see 5 touches of the 377 EMA (yellow ribbon line) since Jan 29. One failed, and resulted in a drop to about the 610 EMA and retest on March 4 and 5. The other 4 resulted in significant bounces or continuation of the uptrend. If memory serves, the minimum bounce was about 125 points before a decent-sized reversal. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-05-20 at 8.07.34 AM.png

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