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I Confess 5/19/21

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If they don't reverse this tick through the 200 day on buttcoin, the next sport level is around 30,450. 

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I will just leave you with this. 

I think that what's going on in stocks has something to do with this. How much BTC is leveraged, that's the question. 

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BTC has crushed the cycle projection. This is a crash, please exit by the nearest hatch. 

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I don't pretend to understand crypto very well, but I'm guessing MicroStrategy could have waited another day or two to make its purchase of additional BTC. Maybe could have saved a few bucks. Per this article, they hold $2.251B of BTC. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/microstrategy-fails-to-boost-bitcoin-10-million-crypto-purchase

Is there any chance this move in BTC could be related to some country/countries about to make a move to impose additional regulations on crypto? I guess I should follow crypto more closely than I do. 

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I read in the nooze that China is making it ilegual to use BTC for payments. 

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27 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I read in the nooze that China is making it ilegual to use BTC for payments. 

That shouldn't be a problem. Using a currency to pay for stuff is so old fashioned.

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From today's fun with numbers department: I was playing around with the NQ daily chart last night. And I do mean playing, this is for amusement purposes only. I first looked for declines of more than 1250 points since the low last March. Since last September, there have been three declines of more than 1250 points (none between March and August). The current decline has not quite made 1250 points (1149). So, in all, there have been four declines of 1100+ points since last March (or September, however you want to look at it).

The first three declines completed in either 13 or 14 trading days. The current decline has been the least shallow (1149 points) by a fair margin, and it took 10 trading days from high to low. Today marks 14 trading days from the most recent high. If the pattern continued to hold, I might have thought that we might get a washout low today below last Thursday's (day 10) low of 12,915, at least down somewhere around that 5/8 line at 12,812-ish. That would represent about a 1250 point decline. So far, we have not even dropped below last Thursday's low, coming within about 39 points of that low this morning. Even an average of the last three declines is about 1600 points, which would take it down around the 4/8 line in the 12,500-ish range.

So, from a time perspective based on the last three declines, this would be a decent day to mark a bottom or strong bounce for the NQ. But from a price perspective, not so much, although I guess the current decline is within shouting distance of the October decline of 1306 points. I'm not predicting a big bounce or bottom today, but it wouldn't shock me either. Since I have missed the fun this week--I was wrong to expect a northbound train rather than south, I'm sitting on my hands and watching for awhile. 

 

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What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, I posted an ES chart and noted that the Fibo Ribbon was constricting, and suggested that perhaps an abrupt move was coming. I had expected that move to be up, based on the PTI index on the chart. Guess I should have just accepted the Elliott Wave count instead of overthinking it. 1536146297_ScreenShot2021-05-18at10_41_16AM.thumb.png.4a993d01275a2defd4b362d036dbb4a4.png

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Posible momento de la verdad numero uno:

YM again. If it closes above that upper red channel line, door is open for YM to make a try for 4/8 line at 34102. Perhaps not all in one bite, however. That's still 300+ points above where it is now. 

 

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