Jump to content

I Confess 5/19/21

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

I freely admit to not understanding what's happening here in the market within my analytical framework. Is it just a short term anomaly? Or is something going on beneath the surface, beyond the view of the liquidity and technical data that I watch. Clearly, the market averages are deteriorating on the charts. But the "internal" technical data that I track has not been. And of course the Fed and Treasury driven liquidity picture remains wildly bullish in the short run. 

So, I'm very concerned that something beneath the surface of what we can see is very wrong. Think Archegos, but orders of magnitude bigger. 

I guess we'll find out in the days ahead. I'm not accustomed to feeling like I don't have a handle on it. It's a very uncomfortable feeling. 

For now, a 5 day cycle projection of 4095 on the ES hourly chart has been hit. However, in terms of sport and resistance, that level is in a no man's land. 4075 looks like more of a target area for this move. 

tvc_e957dc32b400c83c9afca132d1e28291.png

Indeed, when we zoom in on 30 minute bars, 4075 is the projection for the 2-3 day cycle. 

tvc_e554aeab3ba71650d6dc930ce294880c.png

 

If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.  

Treasury Adds to Fed QE to Create Bullish Cash Tsunami

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 34
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I will just leave you with this. 

Here's today's buttcoin watch. Yesterday I had a cycle projection of 39-40k. We're there. It's also the 200 day MA. A bounce is likely from here, but the major top breakdown has a measuring implication of at least 33,000.

tvc_b0a216b0b0f3c5ced0980d7fcff8afc1.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

As an American living in Europe, and earning my keep in USD, I have an abiding personal interest, currently a terror, in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

I have suffered 13% inflation since I arrived in Europe 18 months ago, thanks to our glorious Fed policy of printing money out the ass until it bleeds. Make no mistake, this is their intent. A weaker dollar = inflation, devaluing the mountain of debt bearing down on us, and possibly stimulating more US exports of goods and services. Too bad we don't make anything the world wants to buy outside of Teslas, iPhones, and subscriptions to Lee Adler's Liquidity Trader. If you are European, Liquidity Trader is definitely a tremendous bargain at these prices.  

So with that, here's a look at my current level of pain and that of my fellow US expats getting paid in USD. This is USD/EUR. The current projection for the USD is around €0.80. A year ago, I was getting 0.93 EUR per USD. Ouch. And it looks likely to get worse. 

tvc_85e271df746fcc368ed48a8b22197848.png

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

THE THREE STAGES OF GOVERNMENT FINANCING

The first stage is where expenditure if financed by taxation. This is the healthy stage.

The secound stage is where expenditure is financed by borrowing. This is less healthy.

The third stage is where expenditure is financed by money printing. This is not healthy at all. We are now entering this stage.

The third stage is the bondholders are bagholders stage.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Exports the world wants? What about weapons? I mean, isn't that our main export now? Qualified by the term "what the world wants" I'd say most of the world wishes we'd stop. Iron domes aren't cheap. Neither are the missiles that make them necessary.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much direct correlation, but a credit crunch in China would reverberate throughout world markets. Not sure this qualifies as a crunch. Still growing y/y

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that weapons demand is sensitive to price. Demand is inelastic, the eConomists would say. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm just speculating. I really don't know at this point. Maybe it's just a shakeout before they take it up again. The next few days should tell if that's the case or not. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think this is the big one. Getting closer though. My gawd, a test of the 200 day would seem to be the end of us all. That's only cuz deep down we all know our current path is unsustainable. Meanwhile, I can now go to the grocery store without a face diaper. Happy days are here again.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is really bizarre. Bulls won yesterday's screen game by 32 to 15. This compares with Monday's 27 to 8 bull win, which came on top of a 153 to 6 bull stampede on Friday, which suggested a new bull swing phase. 

The 5 day total is 252 buys to 86 sells, a spread of +166. That's up from +144 yesterday.

And yet the market slides. I don't get it. Admittedly, using these short term signal screens as a market indicator is a new thing, but in theory, it should work. I've been doing this stuff for over 50 years and have a pretty good feel for what works in TA and what doesn't. But there may be a logical flaw in this method that I haven't recognized yet. As Professor Lawrence Berra said, "In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is."  

I screen all stocks and ETFs from the NYSE and NASD, excluding those with less than an average of 1 million shares per day traded, and selling for less than $6 per share.  The table below shows swing trade buy signals and sell signals from yesterday's action. The numbered columns represent the time frame of the support or resistance trend around which the signals were generated.  

Here is today's  output. The number 1 indicates that the condition is true. 0 is false. The numbers on the right half of the chart represent the time frames in days of the support or resistance areas where the signal was triggered. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
ABT 1 0 0 0 1 0
AEP.O 1 0 1 0 0 1
ASX 1 0 0 0 1 0
CPE 1 0 0 0 0 1
SAVA.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
CLGX.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
YINN.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
EXAS.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
FUTU.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
GRPN.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
HMC 1 0 0 0 0 1
PGX 1 0 0 1 0 0
EWH 1 0 0 0 0 1
EWY 1 0 0 0 1 0
EWT 1 0 0 0 1 0
LSCC.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
MAC 1 0 1 0 0 0
MBT 1 0 1 0 0 0
NCLH.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
OSTK.O 1 0 0 1 1 1
PAAS.O 1 0 0 1 1 1
PGRE.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
REKR.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
SVC.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
SPEM.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SMFG.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TCOM.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
UNFI.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
VWO 1 0 0 0 0 1
VG.O 1 0 0 0 1 1
WMT 1 0 0 0 1 0
ZTO 1 0 0 1 0 0
AEM 0 1 0 1 0 0
BCS 0 1 0 0 0 1
GLW 0 1 0 0 0 1
GE 0 1 0 0 0 1
USIG.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
IUSB.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
IAU 0 1 0 1 0 0
KMB 0 1 0 0 1 0
PUMP.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
RDSa 0 1 1 0 0 0
GLD 0 1 0 1 0 0
SPLB.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
FTI 0 1 0 0 1 0
VCLT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VET 0 1 1 0 0 0
Totals 32 15 8 9 13 23

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like using your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 


Every weekend I use the previous week's screens to select charts that have potential for a move, and I post them for subscribers.  

Dodging Bullets – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 17, 2021

 
 
You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. Try it for 90 days risk free (first time subscribers).
 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Indeed, when we zoom in on 30 minute bars, 4075 is the projection for the 2-3 day cycle. 

tvc_e554aeab3ba71650d6dc930ce294880c.png

Done

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • ×
    • Create New...