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Bear Beatings to Continue Until Morale Improves 5/14/21

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When we look at the 2 hour bars on the ES S&P fucutures we can interpret it in two ways. The market is not attacking a zone of massive impenetrable overhead supply, AKA resistance. 

Or the market is entering a zone that has been crossed over and cleaned out so many times in the past month that it will fly through it like it's thin air. I wouldn't call it a vacuum, because then it couldn't fly. Unless you were rocket propelled, in which case, you would. 

Got that?

Good. 

tvc_6556c1fc43efb543ede028acd8f428cc.png

Of course, what I just told you is meaningless drivel. But the 5 day cycle projection is 4160. And if they get through that, it would complete a nice bottoming pattern that would have a conventional measuring implication of 4240. That's arithmetic and geometry. And I am Pablo Picasso. 

Hourlytvc_1c36787b7e3dca30beb2626dea16f586.png

By the way, the cycle oscillators on the 2 hour bars say we're definitely going higher. The indicators on the hourly are saying, WTF do I know. 

Actually, indicators don't talk. Buy psychotic technical anal cysts think they're talking to them. Sick people who need to be institutionalized because they won't take their meds otherwise. 

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Bulls won yesterday's screen game by the uninspired score of 34 to 15, short term buys to sells, a spread of +21. In Wednesday's crash, the score was only 41 sells to 7 buys, a spread of -34.Tuesday's score was Bears 26, Bulls 21. 

Weird. I would have thought that yesterday's rocket launch would have led to far more buys. Likewise, the previous two days of carnage I thought would have led to wider sell side spreads. But these numbers are completely ordinary. This indicates that neither direction is a new thrust.  Maybe it's just lag. The vast majority of stocks aren't doing anything remarkable. But the big stocks are pushing the market averages around big time. 

The 5 day total is 141 buys to 129 sells. Yesterday, after two days of the market brutalizing the bulls, the 5 day total was only 130 sells to 129 buys. The last time the balance was really negative was on May 6.

I said yesterday that the numbers do not support a crash. Yesterday's trading sort of confirmed that. Kinda. A little. Well, maybe more than a little. 

I screen all stocks and ETFs from the NYSE and NASD, excluding those with less than an average of 1 million shares per day traded, and selling for less than $6 per share.  The table below shows swing trade buy signals and sell signals from yesterday's action. The numbered columns represent the time frame of the support or resistance trend around which the signals were generated.  

Here is today's  output. The number 1 indicates that the condition is true. 0 is false. The numbers on the right half of the chart represent the time frames in days of the support or resistance areas where the signal was triggered. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
MDRX.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
AMC 1 0 0 0 0 1
ANGI.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
AAPL.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
AVTR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
FNGU.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
BJ 1 0 0 0 0 1
CTMX.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
DEI 1 0 0 0 0 1
ENTG.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
GOGO.O 1 0 0 1 0 1
HWM 1 0 0 0 0 1
HBAN.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IRWD.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SHY.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
MUB 1 0 0 1 0 0
KAR 1 0 0 0 1 0
USA 1 0 0 0 0 1
ON.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
PEB 1 0 0 0 1 0
DOC 1 0 0 0 0 1
PLNT.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
PRMW.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
ST 1 0 0 0 1 0
SRLN.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
SPSB.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SYK 1 0 0 0 0 1
TWO 1 0 0 0 1 0
UDR 1 0 0 0 0 1
VTEB.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
VRTX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
WU 1 0 0 0 0 1
WAB 1 0 0 0 0 1
ASHR.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
AGI 0 1 0 1 0 0
GOLD.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
COG 0 1 0 0 0 1
CLVT.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
CDE 0 1 0 0 1 1
NUGT.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
AG 0 1 0 0 0 1
FLR 0 1 0 0 0 1
PAAS.O 0 1 0 1 1 1
PBR 0 1 0 1 0 0
PVG 0 1 0 0 0 1
RDSa 0 1 1 0 0 1
RDSb 0 1 0 0 0 1
FTI 0 1 0 0 1 0
SLCA.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
Totals 34 15 1 13 13 27

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like using your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

Every weekend I use the previous week's screens to select charts that have potential for a move, and I post them for subscribers.  

Second Wind – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 10, 2021

 
By now, most of the longs should be stopped out. There were 3 shorts that I imagine are doing ok. I'll have a look later to update. 
 
You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. Try it for 90 days risk free (first time subscribers).
 
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A few sample charts from today's screen. Here are a few that look interesting. Again, these are NOT RECOMMENDATIONS.  


Click the chart to enlarge

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I think my simple forensics view was the correct one.  Learned from the Dr mind you.  Of course it makes sense to be nervous when stocks and Treasuries fall for that suggests trouble, somewhere.  Now they are both flying. It's funny what $XXX billion can do. 

 

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Doc saved my sanity (and my bacon) this week by correctly calling not just the support/resistance etc, but also the directional bias suggested by monetary factors that very few can even understand, let alone explain.  Jmo, but anyone who's managing money simply can't afford to ignore this stuff, especially the subscriber reports.

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1 hour ago, potatohead said:

Lee,

This follows your thesis about supporting the primary dealers. Fed starting to buy the longer end of the curve. Also a step toward yield curve control.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/brief-ny-fed-issues-statement-regarding-treasury-securities-operations/ar-BB1gHM8z?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

I read that and it's really a nothing burger. It does not matter what the Fed buys. Taking a tad more long term paper off the market is just not material in my view. They're just adjusting to the fact that the Treasury is issuing more. But the key is that to the dealers, it's cash. Unless I'm missing something. 

When the Treasury runs out of the cash that's funding these massive weekly paydowns, the shit will hit the fan. 

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1 hour ago, GregFokker said:

Doc saved my sanity (and my bacon) this week by correctly calling not just the support/resistance etc, but also the directional bias suggested by monetary factors that very few can even understand, let alone explain.  Jmo, but anyone who's managing money simply can't afford to ignore this stuff, especially the subscriber reports.

What do I owe you? 😁

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It wasn't a V bottom. It was a lopsided W. But the effect is the same. Rocket launch. 

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Jaysus! 153 buy signals to 6 sell signals in the screens yesterday. That's almost the same number as March 27. That was 155 to 8. This is a thrust. Repeat, this is a thrust. Boomshackalacka Boom. 

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