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Market Crash, Computer Crash 5/13/21

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I bring you this special message courtesy of my cell phone. Thanks to Microsoft's wonderful Windows updates, my computer is crashed. Hopefully this is not irreversible.

As for the two days stock market crash. We'll see!

Now I ask you to join me in prayer. 

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  • DrStool changed the title to Market Crash, Computer Crash 5/13/21
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Thank you for your prayers. 

Thank you Jaysus.  

My computer is running again. Windoze update only cost me 90 minutes of lost time. 

Fornicate Microsoft. 

If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.  

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  Late yesterday, I wrote:

13 hours ago, DrStool said:

Next sport line below 4055 is 3978. 

 

13 hours ago, DrStool said:

Although there's a sharply descending channel line at 4040 that could cause a little uptick. But if they go through that, it's Katy Bar the Door. 

They dropped to that lower line, which this morning was at 4025. Now we're getting a dead possum bounce. 

tvc_1a5c28d499e22e44bc82812d16493427.png

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Mea culpa. I did not see this coming. There were signs. I dismissed them.  I was in a hypnotic trance, because there wasn’t much different in the TA than we’ve had before during this era of endless central bank money pumping, tilting the market playing fields. You are getting bullish. Very bullish.  Bullish, bullish, bullish.

We’ve had a dozen years where negative divergences between technical indicators and the market averages meant nothing. Over the past two days, the market snapped its fingers. This time, they divergences meant something. But I had stopped believing a long time ago. To me, those negative divergences had become the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

That’s all I say about what I missed. As Satchel Paige said, “Don’t look back. Something might be gainin’ on you.” There is a time for post mortems. This is not one of them. This is the time to “read and react.” (Lombardi)

So let’s read, see what we can, and react. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Non subscriber? Get a 90 day risk free trial to see now.

Initial cycle projection on the SPX point to a low around XXXX (subscribers see full report). If that doesn’t hold, there are several trend support areas below that, which could be likely targets for a V bottom bounce. XXXX and XXXX are potential support areas, but they look minor. The big one would be XXXX.

As an aside from my liquidity research, massive amounts of liquidity are coming into the market right now. It started on Tuesday with a big Treasury bill paydown. Another one will hit today. And they’ll do it again next Tuesday. Today also begins Fed MBS settlement week, where it settles all the MBS it bought under forward purchase contracts 30-60 days ago. That’s $122 billion coming into dealer accounts from the Fed, and around $50 billion a week into dealer and other major investor accounts from the US Treasury.

So we have the tinder for a V bottom between XXXX and XXXX (subscribers see full report). But from where? And is this damage fatal to the long term uptrend? Those are the questions.

In the interest of getting to the point and getting this report out to you, below is a brief chart review (subscribers see full report) with brief comments.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

 
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Bears won yesterday's screen game, of course. The score was only 41 to 7, a spread of -34. Weird. Tuesday's score was Bears 26, Bulls 21. I would have thought that two days of carnage. Maybe it's just lag. Maybe many stocks are holding up ok. Or maybe my screening methodology is horseshit. 

The 5 day moving total is only 130 sells to 129 buys. It's definitely deteriorating, but this is hardly a number that would seem to justify the clobbering we just saw. 

I screen all stocks and ETFs from the NYSE and NASD, excluding those with less than an average of 1 million shares per day traded, and selling for less than $6 per share.  The table below shows swing trade buy signals and sell signals from yesterday's action. The numbered columns represent the time frame of the support or resistance trend around which the signals were generated.  

Here is today's  output. The number 1 indicates that the condition is true. 0 is false. The numbers on the right half of the chart represent the time frames in days of the support or resistance areas where the signal was triggered. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
Totals 7 41 8 8 14 21
CLVT.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
LABU.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
EPD 1 0 0 0 0 1
EXAS.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
GPN 1 0 0 1 0 0
NTLA.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
MVIS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ADBE.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
AXL 0 1 0 0 0 1
ARCC.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
BALY.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
CIEN.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
CNDT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
CREE.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
GUSH.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
TECL.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
D 0 1 1 0 0 0
EIX 0 1 0 1 0 0
FEYE.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
FLEX.O 0 1 0 0 1 1
GOGO.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
INTC.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
PCY 0 1 1 0 0 0
IRDM.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
IEF.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
EWY 0 1 0 0 0 1
KAR 0 1 1 0 0 0
KMB 0 1 0 0 0 1
KGC 0 1 0 1 0 0
KLAC.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
LAUR.O 0 1 0 1 1 0
LITE.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
MGY 0 1 0 0 0 1
NTNX.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
PVG 0 1 0 0 1 0
PUMP.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SCHR.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SQM 0 1 0 0 1 1
SPTS.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
TPX 0 1 0 0 0 1
EMLC.K 0 1 1 0 0 0
GDXJ.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
VGIT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VGSH.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VIAV.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
WMT 0 1 0 0 1 0
WPM 0 1 0 1 0 0
WYNN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like using your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

Every weekend I use the previous week's screens to select charts that have potential for a move, and I post them for subscribers.  

Second Wind – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 10, 2021

 
By now, most of the longs should be stopped out. There were 3 shorts that I imagine are doing ok. I'll have a look later to update. 
 
You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. Try it for 90 days risk free (first time subscribers).

 

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Not so sure about a V bottom, they are so last week... comes a time when mo free money just doesn't work anymore. Sure does make a mess though, someone has to clean up that huge pile of debt!

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On the 30 minute bars you can see that the bounce stopped exactly at multiple resistance line convergence. 

tvc_a366d48ae1006ebd0a6d56b31eedfda9.png

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A few sample charts from today's screen. Here are a few that look interesting. Again, these are NOT RECOMMENDATIONS.  
Click the chart to enlarge

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No Einstein, this is for you.

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Bottom, or crash?
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25 minutes ago, DrStool said:

On the 30 minute bars you can see that the bounce stopped exactly at multiple resistance line convergence. 

tvc_a366d48ae1006ebd0a6d56b31eedfda9.png

Attacking this as we approach the open. The number is 4075, 

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Does TA work. Or doesn't it. Could make both cases out of this shit. 

Maybe my screen data is correct on the big picture. 

I'm always wracked with doubt. I guess that's why I'm a half decent anal cyst. 

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Obviously, it works, but when amplitude dramatically increases along with frequency, it can be hell to see the signal through the noise. 

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