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Overnight Bank Heist 5/11/21

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13 hours ago, Jimi said:

Lee, this remains the best damned site on the internet for people like us.

All 5 of us. 

Baahhh dump dump. 

Meanwhile the 5 day cycle projection on the S&P fucutures at 5:30 AM in NY is 4125-30. 

Click here for commentary.

tvc_493f5c89c0cc2c1f2c9d79e74774f32c.png

 

Meanwhile, using the 4 hour bars, I can show you that as I write, they have bounced from trend support dating from March 4.

tvc_7842eb0583616cca58ed49ddb4f4679f.png

If this breaks, it would be significant for the longer cycles that I don't cover here, but cover in Technical Trader. This may be one of the rare occasions where I may need to post a midweek bulletin. Click to get that service risk free for 90 days

If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.  

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I forgot to draw the current red channel. Here it is on the 30 minute bars. They're testing the top. The 2-3 day cycle projection was 4160, overshot. Indicators suggest that the cycle has bottomed. 

tvc_e92b79fd4a2861035dd76da0dd49e14a.png

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TSLA down another 7% pre-market after yesterday's 6% haircut. I'm about as far from a social scientist as one can get, but it would be interesting if it turns out in retrospect that Elon's recent Saturday Night Live hosting gig turned out to be the peak of his popularity. Probably not useful for trading, but interesting nonetheless. 🙂 

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Bears won yesterday's screen game with 37 sell signals and 9 buy signals. That compares with Friday's  70 buys to 10 sells.  The 5 day totals are 145 buys and 113 sells. The net positive of +32 is less than Friday's +72. It's  not enough to signal a big downturn. I therefore regard the selling from yesterday and overnight with suspicion. 

We  had a couple days of 45 to 56 sell signals over the past two weeks. But that was well below the the thrust of the 155 buy signals that started the 6 month cycle up phase back on March 28. That was the Big Kahuna. That wave has waned, but there's no big counter wave yet. If today's selling is sustained, then it's possible that this is it. But another rebound would keep the up thingy going. 

This is the problem with rangebound markets. Swing frequency increases, duration decreases. Amplitude can go either way. At the moment, it has increased, and that appears to be a trend. Day traders using intraday minute based charts can cope, and even do very well, with shorter duration, i.e. greater frequency, and increasing amplitude.  But for those with a long term horizon, say, two weeks, it's very tough. 

Yeah, two weeks is long term. 

On Friday I wrote, "I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these sell signals turn into buy signals today or Monday. Or vice versa." It's the day trader's Lord's Prayer. Give us this day our daily reversal.  

I screen all stocks and ETFs from the NYSE and NASD, excluding those with less than an average of 1 million shares per day traded, and selling for less than $6 per share.  The table below shows swing trade buy signals and sell signals from yesterday's action. The numbered columns represent the time frame of the support or resistance trend around which the signals were generated.  

Every weekend I use the previous week's screens to select charts that have potential for a move, and I post them for subscribers.  

Second Wind – Swing Trade Picks For Week of May 10, 2021

 
You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. Try it for 90 days risk free (first time subscribers).

Here is today's  output. The number 1 indicates that the condition is true. 0 is false. The numbers on the right half of the chart represent the time frames in days of the support or resistance areas where the signal was triggered. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
ABT 1 0 0 0 0 1
CERN.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
GE 1 0 0 0 0 1
HRTX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
LYV 1 0 0 0 1 0
MLCO.O 1 0 1 0 1 0
PLYA.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PPL 1 0 1 0 0 1
TX 1 0 0 0 0 1
AMRS.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
APTV.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
ACB 0 1 0 1 0 1
AVGO.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
BPY.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
CPE 0 1 0 0 0 1
CUK 0 1 0 0 0 1
CRON.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
SOXL.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
DVAX.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
QYLD.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
GPRO.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
GRPN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
HIMX.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
IEI.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
AAXJ.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
KLAC.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
MBT 0 1 0 1 0 0
OXY 0 1 0 0 0 1
PK 0 1 0 0 0 1
PYPL.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
PCG 0 1 1 0 0 0
PUMP.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
RIOT.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
SRPT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
SPLB.K 0 1 1 0 0 0
SQ 0 1 0 0 1 1
TSM 0 1 0 0 0 1
FTI 0 1 0 0 1 0
TSLA.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
TCOM.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
SMH.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VCLT.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
VG.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
XSOE.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
XRX 0 1 1 0 0 0
YNDX.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
Totals 9 37 8 3 12 27

 

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like using your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

Here are a few that look interesting. Again, these are NOT RECOMMENDATIONS.  
Click the chart to enlarge

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Because it's Tesla
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Dicsucs

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I think you'd be hard pressed the last 20 years to find days with sharp stock selloffs that were not accompanied by fall in Treasury rates. I would guess that now everyone who is selling is looking to get in on the next 50 bagger to 'invest' in.

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Taking aim at the 5 day cycle projection now looking like 4132. 

 

Done

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To your point about 2 weeks being long term, if you had "bought and held" ES on May 6, unless they can successfully bounce it off this morning's low, so far you would have made pretty much nothing. But those Murrey Math lines have been a thing of beauty for the last week or so, though. Almost perfect 6/8 move up and down so far. 

Screen Shot 2021-05-11 at 7.30.19 AM.png

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I forgot to do the gold report. Can you believe it. The mushroom diet apparently isn't working. 

I'm working on the report now. 

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2 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I not familler wit merry math. 

Murrey Math is basically the Gann Angles course, using the angles/lines turned horizontally. Merry math is what happens to my credit card in December. 

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