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The Right Side Has Descended 4/23/21

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And an air pocket has developed. 

tvc_8317ad2dfdf0959893ec06e974551961.png

To be serious for a moment, a big change in the tax on capital gains would shift the supply/demand equation. Obviously, we can't know yet if that would be enough to change the long term trend, but yesterday's air pocket response should certainly grab our attention. 

Initially the market always returns to trend within a few days, but over time, if this tilts the playing field to a significant degree, we will start to see signs in longer term indicators, which I cover in the Technical Trader reports every week.  

Will this headline have marked the top?

 

Historically, I have been a few weeks late calling bottoms, but not usually calling tops. I've mostly seen the signs well in advance. So hopefully, that will be the case again. We have projections for the highs in both price and time. If those are to be moderated, we should start seeing those signs over the next couple of weeks. This would be a good time for you to come onboard with a 90 day risk free trial for first time subscribers. 

If you are a new visitor here, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.  


 
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Wondering if running an advance decline line on your bulls vs bears signals might be useful. Just a thought and you already watch it but charting it over time might give some insight on subtle sentiment changes. 

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Yep, for sure. In process. I just started compiling it. Won't have enough data for another few months. Unfortunately, I don't have time to run each day historically.

It would be similar to the screening aggregate that I have been publishing since 2005. That's a composite of shorter and longer term screens. This one is more geared to the short term. But I think that a couple years of data should reveal some interesting patterns. I wish I had thought of doing this years ago. But I do suspect that it will mirror the existing indicator, just more sensitive in the short run.  The 155 buy signals on March 28 was a beautiful thing. 

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Bears won the screen game from yesterday 35-26. That follows a 29-12 bull victory and Tuesday's 56-14 bear swampage. We had just that one bull sided victory this week. Even Monday's action tilted to the bears 22-8. Small numbers, but a canary in the coal mine.

This is swing trade buy signals vs. sell signals from yesterday's action.  

All of this negativity comes off the bottom on March 28, there were 155 buys vs only 8 sells. I'd like to see triple digit sells for a confirmed top signal. Although maybe they can just bleed this thing to death. I don't know, really. I don't have enough history to know if it could work that way. I know from my other cycle screening data, that turns are usually signaled by a huge surge in the numbers one day, one way or the other. 

Here is today's  output. 

Symbol

Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
ALB 1 0 0 0 0 1
APA.O 1 0 1 0 1 0
CLVT.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
CLVS.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
CREE.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
TZA 1 0 0 0 0 1
FCEL.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
GLUU.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
GOL 1 0 0 1 0 0
GBOX.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
HGEN.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
NTLA.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IOVA.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
ICLN.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
JMIA.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
MGM 1 0 0 0 0 1
ON.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PBR 1 0 0 0 0 1
SRTY.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TWM 1 0 0 0 0 1
SAIL.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
SBH 1 0 0 0 0 1
SSYS.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
TTWO.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TDC 1 0 0 0 0 1
X 1 0 0 0 0 1
ELY 0 1 0 0 0 1
AEM 0 1 0 0 1 0
AGI 0 1 0 1 0 0
APLE.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
BBL 0 1 0 0 0 1
CPE 0 1 0 0 0 1
CCL 0 1 1 0 0 0
CF 0 1 0 0 0 1
EURN.K 0 1 0 1 1 0
FBP 0 1 0 0 0 1
FHN 0 1 0 0 0 1
GT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
HL 0 1 0 0 0 1
HST.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
JEF 0 1 0 0 0 1
KL 0 1 0 0 1 0
MAC 0 1 0 0 1 0
MOS 0 1 0 0 0 1
PCAR.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
PAA.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
PG 0 1 0 1 0 0
RDSa 0 1 0 0 1 0
RDSb 0 1 0 0 1 0
SJI 0 1 0 0 0 1
SAND.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
SPG 0 1 0 0 0 1
SONO.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
XME 0 1 0 0 0 1
PSLV.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SUM 0 1 0 0 0 1
TRP 0 1 1 0 0 0
TEL 0 1 0 0 0 1
TCBI.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
TWLO.K 0 1 0 0 1 1
XLNX.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
             
Totals 26 35 4 13 13 34

 

If you are interested in manipulating this data for your own purposes, the table format can be pasted into a spreadsheet, charting program, or your brokerage quote list to run your charts. You can strip out just the symbols in a spreadsheet, and then transfer the symbols to your chart platform.

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. 

Swing Trade Picks For Week of April 19, 2021

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Battle lines seem fairly well established until someone breaks through one of the Maginot Lines in one direction or another. Since I'm lazy and like to avoid conflict, I would probably just avoid it by going around it like the Germans did. My avoidance will consist of taking the day off from trading and starting my "weak end" early. Knock 'em down, and see y'all next week. 

Screen Shot 2021-04-23 at 7.04.23 AM.png

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Here are a few random charts for your listening and dining pleasure. These are not recommendations, just pictures I found interesting. Pretend you are at the MoMa, admiring the creations of the great avant garde artistes. 

 lick to enlarge

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Seriously?
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Does Green Box POS stand for Green Box Piece of Shit?
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 lick to enlarge

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I don't want to be too technical here, but in terms of some of the more esoteric techniques of the genre, this is fucking nuts. 

tvc_507b5f02066d27c90a7e8168c6ed3392.png

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Oh my god, avert your eyes. This thing is going to break out of its codpiece and head for 4210. 

tvc_3a8a40b447d243f0ae04c155dae1154f.png

 

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46 minutes ago, Mkucstars said:

Yet it's a struggle just to print positive for the week. Must define fing nuts...

Why? 

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To me, it's nuts. To others, it may be something different. 

To me, reversing direction by 1.5% seemingly instantly 4 times in 4 days is nuts. These are sudden liquidity dislocations both ways. 

Something is rotten in Denmark. 

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