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Surprise! 4/21/21

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I don't believe in "pricing in." I also don't think about whether I'm a bull or a bear. I just do the math and report what it shows. The longer term projections are what they are because the liquidity

Winner of 10 in a row!

2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Harmon Killebrew and Roy Sievers. Jim Mudcat Grant. Jim Kaat and John Klickstein played for the Phillies later. 

The great Tony Oliva! 

Rod Carew. Luis Tiant for a year. Ron Perranoski.  Bob Allison. 

And I’m gonna ignore those hurtful, but accurate, comments about college football fans. :-) 

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3 hours ago, Jimi said:

Winner of 10 in a row!

image.png.1c4c65fe1490690480ce2ca12a155b44.png

Philly wants them back. And the Warriors. We want them back too. 

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This market is seriously unbelievable. They buy every single dip. There's no downside risk. The Fed and Treasury have eliminated it. 

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  On 4/20/2021 at 2:40 PM, Mkucstars said:

Or we could go sideways... but I thought the space needle was a bit much. Haven't "Happy days" been priced in already? More free money is showing diminishing returns. We could simply be backing off from peak enthusiasm. When bears start talking about explosive upside... methinks it's already happened.

I don't believe in "pricing in." I also don't think about whether I'm a bull or a bear. I just do the math and report what it shows. The longer term projections are what they are because the liquidity balance is what it is. 

Yes, to your point, there's more and more supply. I factor that into the analysis. In fact, I warned more than a year ago that stock buybacks were a two way street, that eventually the tide would turn and companies would issue more stock than they buy back. 

As far as people's market sentiment, I learned a long, long time ago, that it means nothing. The consensus can be correct for a very long time. Bubbles can last indefinitely, especially when all of the world's central banks are promoting them. 

I learned two rules when I was very young. Don't fight the Fed, and Don't fight the tape, aka, The trend is your friend.  When supply exceeds demand, I would expect the technical indicators to turn bearish.  Until then the liquidity balance and the long term trend indicators rule. 

In addition to being a serious anal cyst, I like to entertain, and I need to sell. Attracting a new person to read my bombast sometimes entices them to subscribe to the service. Without subscribers, I starve and write a travel blog, and Capitalstool gets laid to rest. 

It is not my intention to irritate or argue with paying customers, that's for sure. I want everybody to be happy here. I will simply continue to calls them as I sees them, and hope that people are entertained, enlightened, and that they get it. Everybody knows that I'm not always right, and please know that I know it as well. 

More power to anyone who can profit on the short side of the market. They are better traders than I. I love bears. I'm a bear at heart. But I'm a technician at heart, and one of my jobs is to do my best to keep my bear friends from harm. I'm no John Hussman, or other permabears whose names I won't mention, constantly explaining why the market is wrong, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. It's a disservice to the people who are paying you. 

The market isn't wrong. It just is. My job is to describe it, inform, enlighten, entertain, and be a friend. 

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