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Surprise! 4/21/21

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Yesterday surprised me. I did not expect a big selloff, obviously. I saw nothing in my work to suggest one. It's not that that never happens. As the great trading coach Joe Kuharich said, "It's rare but not unusual." 

Cue audience laughter.  😄

Normally when it does happen, it's one of two things. Either I missed something obvious in either my liquidity analysis, or my technical analysis. Or something happened that wouldn't have shown up. That something would be something like a big player being forced into a big liquidation. We could make something up and give it a name, like oh... say... the Archegos Factor. 

I think that may have been what yesterday was about. If so the news will out. However, if this was the case, I think it was a hedge fund, or private equity, or the like, and not a Primary Dealer. If it had been a dealer, Treasuries would have sold off because that's where all the excess leverage in dealer inventory is. And they didn't. They rallied. So that suggests that if this was a fund liquidating, they may have been short Treasuries and long stocks. 

Anyway, this is all useless speculation. 

The thing is, there's never just one cockroach. Maybe this is the beginning of the end. 

It was definitely a Murphy's Law day for me. I was running late, so did not have a chance to post, or even look at my stock screen data. Turns out the bears had won the screen game based on Monday's action. There were 22 sell signals to 8 buy signals. That would have told me that we might be in for a little pullback, but not extended carnage. 

Today's numbers are likely to tell a different story. I've run the screens, and will post the data a little later after I get a Liquidity Trader PONTs report update out to my very patient and wonderful subscribers, who somehow put up with my constant tardiness. Obviously it's because I'm so cuddly and lovable.

As for today's hourly ES chart, here tis. They found support at 4110 yesterday. The rebound will run into multiple lines of resistance between 4130 and 4142 over the next few hours before NY opens. It's now 4:15 AM in NY.

A rollover here would make it interesting for bears. If 4110 breaks down later today, then we get a bounce from 4100 that fizzles, look out below. On the other hand, if they can push through 4130, then this was just a tree shaking exercise by the dealers. They needed more inventory. 

I suspect that neither side may get satisfaction, with the market settling into a 4110-4140 trading range for a few days. 

tvc_1f4365bd841d942d8bb848b4ccf465a5.png

Meanwhile, I guess they're still working on the pilings needed for the foundation. 

Space Needle Construction Under Way

 
I'll have a look at the charts and put out a brief update for Technical Trader subscribers if there are material changes resulting from yesterday's break. 
 
Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.  If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register.
 
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I don't believe in "pricing in." I also don't think about whether I'm a bull or a bear. I just do the math and report what it shows. The longer term projections are what they are because the liquidity

Winner of 10 in a row!

"The wolf will live with the lamb, the leopard will lie down with the goat . . . and a child coupla big friggin' green candles shall lead them."

Well, so far at least. But it's early. 🙂

Screen Shot 2021-04-21 at 8.29.50 AM.png

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17 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Lee, either I am becoming less of a dummy (unlikely), or the LT reports are much more understandable since I resubscribed. Highly technical and complicated stuff, but you have made the format much easier to digest. And let's face it, digestion and elimination are of great import to old guys like me. Loving the PONT spread--even I can understand it now, and its implications. Really enjoying your work! Highly, highly recommended. 

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The dealers are like ace pitchers. You're expecting a fastball and they throw a changeup in the dirt. Then they throw a 4 seamer on the outside corner and take a called third strike. 

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5 minutes ago, DrStool said:

The dealers are like ace pitchers. You're expecting a fastball and they throw a changeup in the dirt. Then they throw a 4 seamer on the outside corner and take a called third strike. 

Growing up in the midwest, and living in the south for awhile (but now in the west and south of the border as much as time allows), I'm not sure I'm ever going to understand you east coasters and your infernal obsession with baseball. Now college football, on the other hand . . . 🙂 

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Getting caught up a little. Here's the swing trade stock screen from yesterday's close. 

Bears won 56 to 14, so maybe this rally won't stick and it's a shorting opportunity, or maybe not. That's swing trade buy signals vs. sell signals from yesterday's action. One of the buy signals was an inverse ETF, so we can add that to  the sell side for an adjusted score of 57 to 13. 

That's pretty lopsided, and it's a big number relative to the last couple of weeks. But it's not sufficient to signal an intermediate top. Coming off the bottom on March 28, there were 155 buys vs only 13 sells, if memory serves. I'd like to see triple digit sells for a confirmed top signal. 

Here is today's  output. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
VNET.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
AVEO.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
BW 1 0 0 0 0 1
CSIQ.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ETR 1 0 1 0 0 0
IMGN.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
IGSB.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TLT.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
LFMD.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
NBIX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
RWM 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPTL.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
VMBS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
VCSH.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BABA.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
AU 0 1 0 0 0 1
ARMK.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
TEAM.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
BILI.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
BP 0 1 0 0 0 1
CNI 0 1 0 0 0 1
CUK 0 1 0 0 0 1
CCL 0 1 1 0 0 1
PRTS.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
CF 0 1 0 0 0 1
CHGG.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
CLNE.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
CLR 0 1 0 0 0 1
DB 0 1 0 0 0 1
EOG 0 1 0 0 0 1
EB 0 1 0 0 0 1
GILT.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
EAF 0 1 0 0 0 1
HSBC.K 0 1 1 0 0 1
HBAN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
IGT 0 1 0 0 1 0
EWJ 0 1 0 0 0 1
IWM 0 1 0 0 0 1
YY.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
KEY 0 1 0 0 0 1
LYFT.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
M 0 1 0 0 0 1
MAR.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
MOMO.O 0 1 0 1 1 0
MGI.O 0 1 0 0 1 1
EGOV.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
NKE 0 1 0 1 0 0
NVS 0 1 0 1 0 0
OSTK.O 0 1 0 1 1 1
PCAR.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
PENN.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 1 0 0 0 1
PSX 0 1 1 0 0 0
PLYA.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
RF 0 1 0 0 0 1
REGI.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
ROKU.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
CWB 0 1 0 0 0 1
KRE 0 1 0 0 0 1
STNE.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
SHO 0 1 0 0 0 1
TS 0 1 0 0 0 1
TME 0 1 0 1 0 0
TEN 0 1 0 0 1 0
TRIP.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
URBN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VNO 0 1 0 0 0 1
XRX 0 1 0 0 0 1
YUMC.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
ZION.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
             
Totals 14 56 4 10 13 49

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

If you are interested in manipulating this data for your own purposes, the table format can be pasted into a spreadsheet, charting program, or your brokerage quote list to run your charts. You can strip out just the symbols in a spreadsheet, and then transfer the symbols to your chart platform.

You can see which ones I actually pick each week by subscribing to Technical Trader. 

Swing Trade Picks For Week of April 19, 2021

 

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12 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

Growing up in the midwest, and living in the south for awhile (but now in the west and south of the border as much as time allows), I'm not sure I'm ever going to understand you east coasters and your infernal obsession with baseball. Now college football, on the other hand . . . 🙂 

Especially considering I grew up with the Phillies and am still a life and death fan. 

But what you say makes no sense. The Cardinals are a storied franchise with a rabid fan base. Then there's da Cubs and the White Sox.

The Royals also have a strong follerin. And the Twins. And them Milwaukee Braves. And what about the Cincinnati's and the Clevelands. 

And what about Field of Dreams. That there's in Iwa.  

So don't give me no stuff about the East Coast and baseball. Baseball is merka's past time. 

College football is all about people reliving their yutes. An excuse to eat ribs and drink beer in a parking lot,  and act like fools. 😄 😄 😄

 

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27 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Especially considering I grew up with the Phillies and am still a life and death fan. 

But what you say makes no sense. The Cardinals are a storied franchise with a rabid fan base. Then there's da Cubs and the White Sox.

The Royals also have a strong follerin. And the Twins. And them Milwaukee Braves. And what about the Cincinnati's and the Clevelands. 

And what about Field of Dreams. That there's in Iwa.  

So don't give me no stuff about the East Coast and baseball. Baseball is merka's past time. 

College football is all about people reliving their yutes. An excuse to eat ribs and drink beer in a parking lot,  and act like fools. 😄 😄 😄

 

Hey, if it's the only thing we disagree about, that's not so bad, huh? I will forgive you your one blind spot. 😆

I grew up following the Twins. I think the won their first World Series the year I moved out of Minnesota. Coincidence? Likely not. 

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Harmon Killebrew and Roy Sievers. Jim Mudcat Grant. Jim Kaat and John Klickstein played for the Phillies later. 

The great Tony Oliva! 

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