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This is a Top - 4/20/21

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OK. Looks like a classic top pattern on the hourly, right? Here's what I don't like about it. The right shoulder is higher than the left. The uptrend, while bending is still intact, and the big neckline is still below at 4140. If they break that with authoritah, then it's a top. 

tvc_09ca869c491404bf0139aa309ac5677d.png
 lick to enlarge

But what kind of top? Here we deal only with intraday and slightly longer matters. So we'll look for a boucne from either 4148 in the 5-6 AM hour in NY. Or from 4140, a little later. If they hold, no doubt the USA gang will again buy the dip. Well, we know they'll buy the dip. We just need to predict the dip to what? 

Beyond this, for the big picture check out: 

Space Needle Construction Under Way

 
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OMG! We haven't been this low since last Wednesday.

Attention New York. Attention New York. There's a storm headed your way. Board up your windows, and sandbag low lying doorways and windows. This will be your only warning. 

tvc_e998af8dd2ec365b50ffaa261fd3db47.png

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Here's an updated chart. I had to go up in the attic and find a red channel. Fortunately, there was an old one lying around, so I just rehung it. 

tvc_26966bb80910623b51dfb968f6b9c559.png

The 5 day cycle projection is 4133. 

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Or we could go sideways... but I thought the space needle was a bit much. Haven't "Happy days" been priced in already? More free money is showing diminishing returns. We could simply be backing off from peak enthusiasm. When bears start talking about explosive upside... methinks it's already happened.

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I'm hearing the stimulus went into savings, just waiting to enter the market. Hogwash. I see my neighbors spending it as fast as they can. What will really hurt is when the eviction moratorium gets lifted. I do hope those people saved all the rent they didn't pay, but I don't hold out much hope.

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I don't track sentiment.  I just do the arithmetic. I can't quantify the probabilities of course. But when cycle projections point higher, it usually plays out.

Will they get there in a space needle? Probably not, but I wouldn't rule it out, and it gets clicks. And clicks get subscribers. And subscribers make sure I have enough money to buy oatmeal and other fiber every week. 

And that's important for health. Eat lots of fiber, and Mr. Hanky will visit you at Christmas and every day. 

Very important! 

I like to reveal how I think so that there's no mystery. 

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THE FED AS SQUEEZER IN CHIEF

So the Fed has provided the banks with an avalanche of cheap money.

Which they have lent out to various family offices and hedge funds to ramp stocks and short squeeze the shorts.

Im sure everything will work out fine.

Leverage is good and makes you sleep soundly. 

(Sarcasm alert)

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Just had 3 stops trigger. Two longs closed and one short initiated. That means it's probably the low of the day. 

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