Jump to content

Climb Every Rally, Buy Every Dip, Follow Every Crypto, Don't Fall on Your Sword

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

Climb every rally, stream every ford, find a better Tesla, till you kill all the shorts. 

If you're not long, you're wrong. 

Hourly perspective as of 5 AM in New York. 

tvc_7fa9410bcb97445424de49f5a8dd757f.png

5 day cycle projection 4180-85. 

Let's zoom in to the 30 minute bars. 

It's just as nauseating. 

The 2-3 day cycle projection is 4180. 

tvc_60fe47343aad5723c5f1bd48c7b598a1.png

 

A closeup. More projectile vomiting dinosaur patterns. This one's preparing to launch. 

tvc_d873d096918c7d59d47749f8899990f8.png

 

Anyone talk to John Hussman lately? 

 

If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 29
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I get my 2nd Pfizer stab in an hour.

I just want to give Liquidity Trader Money Trends subscribers a quick heads up. 

The US Treasury is again going hog wild with T-bill paydowns this month, announcing $62 billion over the past week alone. There's actually a net paydown AFTER new coupon issuance.

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down)
4/22/2021 Bills $185,000 $212,992 ($27,992)
4/20/2021 Bills $115,000 $130,002 ($15,002)
4/15/2021 Bills $151,000 $165,003 ($14,003)
4/15/2021 Coupons $120,000 $61,366 $58,634
4/13/2021 Bills $115,000 $119,994 ($4,994)
4/8/2021 Bills $151,000 $165,003 ($14,003)
4/6/2021 Bills $115,000 $120,001 ($5,001)
4/1/2021 Bills $151,000 $164,996 ($13,996)
      Total Paydowns ($94,991)
      Net Paydowns ($36,357)

And of course this week is the Fed's regular monthly MBS QE purchase settlement week April 14-21. They're pumping $93 billion into Primary Dealer accounts this week. The dealers have been up against it in managing their bond inventories, and the Fed and Treasury are, as always, doing whatever it takes to rescue them.  

So all the explanations that you are seeing in the media about why Treasuries are rallying are just so much BS from the clueless mob. It's about money plain and simple. The Fed and US Treasury are doing a great job of manipulating prices in the short run by pumping a combined $185 billion into the markets, most of it directly into the accounts of Primary Dealers in a very short period. 

We were prepared for and expecting this liquidity to boost the markets this week as usual in the third week of the month, but the additional T-bill paydowns over the rest of the month are a new wrinkle that will add even more liquidity than we expected. The end of month period may not be as dry of funding as usual. 

This too shall pass, and we know that the end is nigh! 

I will cover the issues in depth in one or two subscriber reports this weekend. Stay tuned!  

That will include additional detail on Primary Dealer positioning. 

Primary Dealers Go Full Reverse Thrusters

Link to post
Share on other sites

Bulls won today's Screen Game by a raw score of 49 to 22. That's swing trade buy signals vs. sell signals from yesterday's action. Two of the sell signals were inverse ETFs, so we can add those to  the buy side for an adjusted score of 51 to 20. 

Buy signals are increasing as the market rises. There were just 11 buy signals on April 13. They've gone up every day. The market is gaining momentum breadth as it rises. This could go parabolic over the next couple of days. I've had higher targets in my Technical Trader weekly analysis for a few weeks. The market's daily internal dynamics are confirming. 

I asked previously, "Why didn't the market pull back when the bears had more signals on their side?" That happened last week.  Answer- residual momentum.  There weren't enough sell signals to offset the 155 buy signals on March 28 and 75 on April 2. These numbers showed the thrust off the intermediate bottom.

The number of sell signals, while more than buys over the April 8-13 period, was still low at no more than 31 each day. There was no downside thrust. Nothing to get the ball rolling for bears. Bulls played defense spectacularly. On Tuesday, this week, they had the ball again.

Now the bullish numbers are increasing again in signs of renewed momentum. The market has cleared all resistance and is trading in rare air. Resistance won't stop this trend. Only momentum loss will. For now, momentum is gaining.

Here is today's  output. 

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

If you are interested in manipulating this data for your own purposes, the table format can be pasted into a spreadsheet, charting program, or your brokerage quote list to run your charts. You can strip out just the symbols in a spreadsheet, and then transfer the symbols to your chart platform.

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
AM 1 0 0 0 0 1
AMX 1 0 0 0 1 0
AR 1 0 0 0 0 1
AZN.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
BAX 1 0 1 0 0 0
BBL 1 0 0 0 0 1
BIIB.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
BND.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BUD 1 0 0 0 1 0
CLX 1 0 0 0 0 1
CNC 1 0 0 0 1 0
CNX 1 0 0 0 0 1
CREE.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
CTMX.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
CXW 1 0 0 1 0 0
EIX 1 0 0 0 1 0
ES 1 0 0 1 0 0
GLD 1 0 0 0 0 1
GLDM.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
GSK 1 0 0 1 1 0
IAU 1 0 0 0 0 1
IBN 1 0 0 0 1 0
IRWD.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IUSB.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
KGC 1 0 0 0 1 0
LBRDK.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
NEM 1 0 0 1 0 0
PFSI.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
PHYS.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
PVG 1 0 0 0 1 0
RIO 1 0 0 0 0 1
SAND.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
SCHP.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
SGOL.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SLG 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPAB.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPIB.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPLB.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
SPTL.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
STZ 1 0 0 0 0 1
SWI 1 0 1 0 0 0
TEL 1 0 0 0 0 1
TGTX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TIP 1 0 0 0 0 1
TLT.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TMO 1 0 0 0 1 0
TRP 1 0 1 0 0 0
UL 1 0 1 0 0 0
XEL.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
CHX.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
CNK 0 1 1 0 0 0
CRSP.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
DDD 0 1 0 0 1 0
DUST.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
EAF 0 1 0 0 0 1
F 0 1 0 0 0 1
GLNG.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
GRWG.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
HPP 0 1 1 0 0 0
LVS 0 1 0 0 0 1
MGY 0 1 0 0 0 1
MRO 0 1 0 0 0 1
NOV 0 1 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 1 0 0 0 1
PBRa 0 1 0 0 0 1
RCL 0 1 0 0 0 1
SYF 0 1 0 0 0 1
TBF 0 1 0 0 0 1
TBT 0 1 0 0 0 1
WYNN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
XRX 0 1 0 0 0 1
             
Totals 49 22 9 11 12 40


These signals ideally have a time horizon of 1-4 weeks.  

The last 4 columns are for the time frame of the support or resistance line around which the signals were triggered.

Ignore the .O and .K These are peculiar to Reuters data. 

I initially screen 9000 NYSE and NADSACS issues for stocks that have been trading more than 1 million shares per day and are trading above $6. There are normally between 30 and 100 results, depending on where we are in the cycle. There are more signals at cyclical turning points and fewer as a move progresses.  

I use these screens to pick stocks for my ready list for my personal trading, and also for my weekly swing trade chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers.

I developed the algorithm to hunt for stocks that looked primed to have a good move, ideally over a period of 4 weeks. In practice they range from 1 week to 7 weeks. I consider the move finished when they break trend support, using the indicators from which the screen program is constructed. 

From the screen output I visually review the charts. I make my picks from that review.

There are usually between 2 and 8 good looking setups every day. The numbers are bigger around intermediate term turning points. 


Here's a typical chart. I review these daily for my own personal trading candidates, and weekly for inclusion in the Technical Trader newsletter. 

This chart is not a recommendation. It's actually a random choice. Just happened to be on my screen as I wrote this post. 

image.png

 

90 day Technical Trader first time subscriber risk free trial.

image.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

My twitter follower numbers have broken out along with the market. That's odd. Good but odd. 

I have to give credit to Potatohead for some of that. Every time he touts me, I get a bunch of followers. The man is extremely influential. 😁

Link to post
Share on other sites

As I go through the screen charts, everything inflation related seems to be breaking out of base patterns. This may not be the transitory thing the Fed is hoping for.  

All the smart guys have been saying deflation first, then inflation. I think the opposite is more likely. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The funny thing is that the bond funds are also breaking out. These people are going to get burned. Bad. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

5 day cycle projection now 4195-4205, suggesting that they're going to blow through this channel. 

tvc_c18745db5bc22254325d0d21769b62fe.png 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, DrStool said:

My twitter follower numbers have broken out along with the market. That's odd. Good but odd. 

I have to give credit to Potatohead for some of that. Every time he touts me, I get a bunch of followers. The man is extremely influential. 😁

I really appreciate your views and candor. Your brutal analysis is right to the point and needs to be heard. Here is my latest interview.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent!

I'm heading out for a few hours. I'm going to the hood to see if I can score some vax. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • ×
    • Create New...