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Here's The Only Pattern You Need 4/13/21

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11 hours ago, PullMyFinger said:

Maybe I should just start trading the first and last hours of the day. Trade the first hour, go to the beach, get lunch, a quick nap, and come back and wait for the inevitable ramp in the last hour. 

Or, I suppose I could continue my policy of blindly buying on any morning dip and waiting for the market to rescue my stupid entries. Then I could stay at the beach all day. 🙂data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==

I would agree with that. 

The other thing is, never use market orders in the first 15 minutes of trading. 

Meanwhile, this market may be dull, but it sure is orderly. Looks on the hourly chart that we've been in a down phase of sorts over the past 6 days, and a 2-3 day and 5 day cycle down phase for the past 2. 

Which implies that a cycle low could happen today or tomorrow. Bears then face a day of explosive diarrhea. 

With European markets open 20 minutes now, at 9:20 AM CET, 3:20 AM ET, trend s-port is at 4118, 4112, and 4110. s-port level 4103. More trend s-port 4099. I don't see anything of substance on the downside without breaking those lines. As New York opens the uppermost line will be about 4123. The rest will only be a point or two higher than current, except for 4103 which is a level, not a trend. 

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This Monster is Poised to Explode

 

Primary Dealers Go Full Reverse Thrusters

 
 

 

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A little liftoff from the upper trendline. You will want to be sure to double diaper, and check for tight fit, in case this gets going. 

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  • DrStool changed the title to Here's The Only Pattern You Need 4/13/21

Bears win today's Screen Game by a score of 22 to 11. That's swing trade sell signals vs. buy signals. 

The bears have been making a showing. They had won the weekend screen 24 to 17. I only post that screen, and my selections for that week's trade candidates, in the Technical Trader newsletter. Check it out! 90 day risk free trial for first time subscribers.

Thursday's data resulted in a virtual tie. Bears won Wednesday's data 23-8.

Why isn't the market pulling back? Answer- residual momentum.  There haven't been enough sell signals to offset the 155 buy signals on March 28, representing the thrust off the intermediate bottom. 

Here is today's  output. 

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
BMY 1 0 0 0 1 0
CNC 1 0 0 0 1 0
CAG 1 0 0 1 0 0
DHR 1 0 0 0 1 0
DUST.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
LABD.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
FEYE.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
IRWD.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
LULU.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
M 1 0 0 0 0 1
MFH.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ATVI.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
AMD.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
AZUL.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
BDX 0 1 0 1 0 1
CNK 0 1 0 0 0 1
EW 0 1 0 0 1 0
FCG 0 1 0 0 0 1
FRO 0 1 0 0 0 1
GRFS.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
IBN 0 1 0 0 1 0
ILF 0 1 0 0 1 0
KALA.O 0 1 1 0 1 0
MAXR.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
MLCO.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
NYT 0 1 0 0 1 0
EGOV.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
NCLH.K 0 1 1 0 0 0
PK 0 1 0 0 0 1
RLGY.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
RPAI.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
TSM 0 1 0 0 0 1
ASHR.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
Totals 11 22 2 5 12 16

 

It is normal for new signals to diminish as a trend progresses, simply because so many stocks have already triggered. The remaining universe of stocks that have not recently triggered buy signals is shrinking.  It also means that the risk reward ratio is becoming gradually less favorable. Obviously the risk/reward is most favorable in the initial day or two of the upturn.  

On the other hand, the number of sell signals, while more than buys, is still low. So there's no downside thrust. Nothing to get the ball rolling for bears. 

These signals ideally have a time horizon of 1-4 weeks.  

The last 4 columns are for the time frame of the support or resistance line around which the signals were triggered.

Ignore the .O and .K These are peculiar to Reuters data. 

I initially screen 9000 NYSE and NADSACS issues for stocks that have been trading more than 1 million shares per day and are trading above $6. There are normally between 30 and 100 results, depending on where we are in the cycle. There are more signals at cyclical turning points and fewer as a move progresses.  

I use these screens to pick stocks for my ready list for my personal trading, and also for my weekly swing trade chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers.

I developed the algorithm to hunt for stocks that looked primed to have a good move, ideally over a period of 4 weeks. In practice they range from 1 week to 7 weeks. I consider the move finished when they break trend support, using the indicators from which the screen program is constructed. 

From the screen output I visually review the charts. I make my picks from that review.

There are usually between 2 and 8 good looking setups every day. The numbers are bigger around intermediate term turning points. 

Here's a typical chart. I review these daily for my own personal trading candidates, and weekly for inclusion in the Technical Trader newsletter. 

It was one of the sell signals. It's an interesting setup for a short. Again, this is just an example, not a recommendation.

image.png

 lick to enlarge 4

 

This Monster is Poised to Explode

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Just noted that two of the buy signals were inverse ETFs. Those should count as sell signals. However, one was precious metals, which may or may not run counter trend to the broad market. 

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Bitcoin now projects 65-66,000 short term. A slightly longer term projection points to 70,000. My word!

tvc_baf5d38cb8df270b84a61645cc34730b.png

 

This Monster is Poised to Explode

 

Primary Dealers Go Full Reverse Thrusters

 
 

 

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15M NQ. Action-reaction line touches from above and below have been pretty predictable the last few days. Not sure what to think of this morning so far. Went from lowest channel line touch to next one up in less than 3 hours. Impressive.

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-13 at 7.48.35 AM.png

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1 hour ago, Mkucstars said:

It was funny and in a good way! Some of us get it. I'm not a twit so I don't Twitter but I do enjoy following you here ;)

 

Many tanks and dungs a lot for your support!. 😄

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20 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

This just might help explain why NQ is up almost 1% while YM is down and ES is flat. Yikes. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-13 at 7.55.48 AM.png

I second that. 

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