Bears Finally Win One in the Screen Game 4/8/23

[DrStool]

The final score in yesterday's game was Bears 23, Bulls 8. 

The totals are too small to suggest an intermediate top. Remember that just 10 days or so ago we had a day with 155 buy signals and only 8 sells. That kind of widespread inertia carries a lot of residual momentum that normally lasts a few months.  So I'm viewing today's numbers as a little counter trend blip for now. 

Here is today's  output. 

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

Symbol	Buy	Sell	500	200	125	50
ABR	1	0	0	0	0	1
BHC	1	0	0	0	0	1
CFX	1	0	0	0	0	1
OII	1	0	0	0	0	1
PAA.O	1	0	0	0	0	1
UCO	1	0	0	0	0	1
BNO	1	0	0	0	0	1
USO	1	0	0	0	0	1
AU	0	1	1	0	1	0
BLL	0	1	0	1	0	0
BDX	0	1	0	0	0	1
CSIQ.O	0	1	0	0	1	1
CRON.O	0	1	0	0	1	0
TNA	0	1	0	0	0	1
DG	0	1	0	1	0	0
KODK.K	0	1	0	1	0	0
GEO	0	1	0	0	0	1
HR	0	1	1	0	0	0
HGEN.O	0	1	0	0	0	1
IMGN.O	0	1	0	0	0	1
LQD	0	1	1	0	0	0
EWZ	0	1	0	0	0	1
EWH	0	1	0	0	0	1
JD.O	0	1	0	1	0	0
LTHM.K	0	1	0	0	1	0
PSX	0	1	0	0	0	1
PBI	0	1	0	0	0	1
SIEN.O	0	1	0	0	0	1
TTWO.O	0	1	0	0	0	1
VCYT.O	0	1	0	0	0	1
WPM	0	1	0	0	1	0
Totals	8	23

It is normal for new signals to diminish as a trend progresses, simply because so many stocks have already triggered. The remaining universe of stocks that have not recently triggered buy signals is shrinking. It also means that the risk reward ratio is becoming gradually less favorable. Obviously the risk/reward is most favorable in the initial day or two of the upturn.  

These signals ideally have a time horizon of 1-4 weeks.  

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The last 4 columns are for the time frame of the support or resistance line around which the signals were triggered.

Ignore the .O and .K These are peculiar to Reuters data. 

I initially screen 9000 NYSE and NADSACS issues for stocks that have been trading more than 1 million shares per day and are trading above $6. There are normally between 30 and 100 results, depending on where we are in the cycle. There are more signals at cyclical turning points and fewer as a move progresses. Monday looked like a significant turning point. Fool me once, shame on you, Mr. Market. 

I use these screens to pick stocks for my ready list for my personal trading, and also for my weekly swing trade chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers.

I developed the algorithm to hunt for stocks that looked primed to have a good move, ideally over a period of 4 weeks. In practice they range from 1 week to 7 weeks. I consider the move finished when they break trend support, using the indicators from which the screen program is constructed. 

From the screen output I visually review the charts. I make my picks from that review.

There are usually between 2 and 8 good looking setups every day. The numbers are bigger around intermediate term turning points. 

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[DrStool]

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[DrStool]

The uptrend got bent the past couple of days. But it didn't break. Last night it broke out of that Amazing Base, after New York close. I mean you can't help but be in awe. 

AMAZING BASE!

You can thank me for the earworm too. 

As you can see, at 6:15 AM ET, and 12:15 CET here where I am in Europe, we've had a little pullback from the overnight peak of 4093 on the fucutures. But the trend is very much intact. The lower channel trendline is at 4075 this hour, rising to 4078, at the open in New York. The bulls are still very much in charge if we're above that line. 

And I wouldn't expect any significant decline as long as that Amazing Base is intact. Talk to me if and when they break the bottom of the Amazing Base at 4055. 

How many poodits were forecasting 4000 on the S&P 6 months ago, and 4100 back last December?  

Quote

Updated long term cycle projections as of October 26, 2020 show targets centered on the 3900- 4000 area on the SPX, due as early as this December for the 2 year cycle, and 2021-22 on the 3-4 year cycle

https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2020/10/26/monday-monday-cant-trust-that-day/

Quote

The 10-12 month cycle now appears to be in trending mode, with a new projection of 4150, which is up from a previous projection of 4100 in early  November. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2020/12/06/confuse-us-when-river-flow-uphill-bear-must-float/

Not too many, I bet. You want to know where the projections point now? Join me!  

[DrStool]

Back to s-port. where the rubber meets the road,

[DrStool]

[DrStool]

OK. This looks mildly bullish. 

[DrStool]

That was sarcasm. 

[DrStool]

Is it me, or is it hard to make any money in this market.