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Red Channels and More Sell Signals 3/19/21

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The rights of ownership are the right to control, the right to income, the right of exclusive use, the right to sell. 

What rights do you have as a stock owner. You have no control. You have no right to income, you certainly have no right of use. You have only the right to sell. 

Therefore the value of your ownership of a stock is what someone will pay you for it. It's no different from bitcoin. The idea that stocks have some other value is a figment of the collective imagination. 

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10 minutes ago, DrStool said:

The rights of ownership are the right to control, the right to income, the right of exclusive use, the right to sell. 

What rights do you have as a stock owner. You have no control. You have no right to income, you certainly have no right of use. You have only the right to sell. 

Therefore the value of your ownership of a stock is what someone will pay you for it. It's no different from bitcoin. The idea that stocks have some other value is a figment of the collective imagination. 

You have only the right to sell.... After 9/11, GFC, and Game stop....that right may not be as secure.

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1 minute ago, potatohead said:

You have only the right to sell.... After 9/11, GFC, and Game stop....that right may not be as secure.

True! It may not always be available. 

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4 hours ago, DrStool said:

Hey Potatohead! Fleck just followed me. He and I used to chat quite a bit, but then I left Beartown and went undercover with the bulls.  LOL 

 

I always liked it when Fleckenstein was on TV, for his thoughts/opinions........

he always had that great hair too.........was he with the Grateful Dead back in the day... 😀🍺

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Well, I don't know of course. But my gut says that it's starting. 

Have a great weak end. I'll be around!

Ciao! 

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2 hours ago, MisFit Kid said:

 

I always liked it when Fleckenstein was on TV, for his thoughts/opinions........

he always had that great hair too.........was he with the Grateful Dead back in the day... 😀🍺

I saw the Dead at the Ventura Fairgrounds in Summer 1982.

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WAITING FOR THE YCC HIT

Yes we are all waiting waiting waiting.

But I think the FED is waiting for the ten year to go above a certain magic number before it starts.

What is the magic number?????

2%???  Im sure many would like to know.....

(note the FED has been doing soft YCC for quite some time now.....since 2008 with a nice ramp up of REPO in 2019).

Yes Mr Market the hopeless debt junky is waiting for the FED dealer to roll out the really "Hard" Stuff.

And when that happens its goodbye to the dollar.

The soft YCC was just the gateway drug for Mr Market.

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Normally QE infinity would be bearish for the USD, but central banks rarely go their own way. This will be coordinated with similar efforts by the ECB and BoJ to weaken their currencies. Also, if foreign holders of Treasuries become sellers on balance, they would tend to repatriate their cash, forcing their central bank to buy Treasuries. Would that cause the dollar to weaken further or strengthen against the euro and yen.  If for example the Euro strengthens how would the ECB respond? 

I would have thought that the USD would have kept weakening given that the Fed is printing more than its cohorts. But then the ECB started jaboning (like jawboning but sounds funnier) the euro down and the dollar has rebounded in the past couple of months. 

Forecasting currencies is hard. Too many moving parts. Trade flows. Financial flows. Interest rate arb. Central bank and government manip. Tourism. Speculation. 

I stay away from it.  If you're investing overseas, or if you're overseas and investing in the US, it's necessary, but ... tough. I don't see any reliable way to forecast beyond TA. 

I just hope that the EUR/USD stays in a reasonable band.  

I would love to see the USD back to 0.90 EUR range.  Looks like it's getting ready to head that way. 🤞 

tvc_705a394aed96a1eff4600ad1eae164fd.png

 

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Martin Armstrong shows beginning stages of major cash flowing from Europe to the US due to the EU being further down the Great Reset agenda than the US.   He sees the US not as a safe haven, but safer than almost anywhere else at least for a while.  Negative interest rates, thanks to Draghi, have essentially destroyed their bond market.  Armstrong is a major cycle guy, funny how great minds think alike.

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