DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 The stock market is more jittery as the 10 year attacks and then backs off from a new high in yield. On the hourly chart, the ES S&P futures are hewing to the centerline of an uptrend stemming from Tuesday's double bottom. Hourly oscillators are dead flat, but slightly above the zero line. This reflects the straight line nature of the trend as it fluctuates narrowly around the regression mean. It's all so bizarre. Technically, resistance is at yesterday's peak of 3682. Support is around 3667. The trend centerline, to which price has been sticking, is currently around 3675 heading for 3679 at the closing bell at 4 PM ET. While the pattern has a bit of wedginess, it also has the outline of a launch pad. I'd go with that for now. They'd need to break 3671 at a minimum to even have a prayer of getting anything going on the downside. I come into today about 30% long in my trading account. 0% short. The rest is cash. My hotlist for swing trading has 9 potential longs and 6 potential shorts. I'm looking to add a couple on each side depending on how the pattern develops during the day. Probably not until 2:30 turn time. I'll let you know if I think the tape looks interesting either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 2-3 day cycle projection 3695. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted December 4, 2020 Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 My superficial, uninvestigated, current working-hypothesis-since-breakfast-and-until-I-abandon-or-forget-it is that sharp declines in the cryptocurrency complex will be the bell rung at the top this cycle. I'm not a crypto-skeptic, per se. But I have done my formal studies of money & sovereignty. The gleeful (smug?) pile-in and emotional commitment to crypto (mainly by 20-something & 30-somethings?) is approaching "eyeball metric ca. 2000" analogous euphoridiocy(TM). The hyper-liquidity afforded a market for something no one can see, few can cogently describe & explain, but is certain victoriously to supplant established monetary alternatives seems... overwrought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 What's the difference between bitcoin and tesla? What's the difference between cryto in general and stocks in general, other than those that pay dividends out of earnings? What are dividends, you say? Why, back in the 50s, that's why we bought stocks. To get the dividends. Nowadays, instead of paying dividends, companies buy back their stocks and that way they can pay the dividends to the executives who deserve them, rather than the ridiculous, do-nothing, stock holders. Besides, the buybacks make stocks go up. Dividends are so mid-century modern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 The longs on my hot list all ran this morning. So I'll hold off on adding. The real question is whether to harvest profits this afternoon or hold over the weekend. I'll let you know. As for my hotlist shorts, I'm kind of "meh." They're at a fulcrum here. If they come off to the downside I'll nibble. If they pop, I'll stay away. I know this guy Ed, who's a real con man. They call him Ed the Con, or Con Ed for short. I told him I wasn't interested. He said it's a great chart. But I'm not to excited about elect trick utilities, expecially with what's going on today. They pay dividends, you know. And they're rigged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 The erectile dysfunction angle is interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 What goes up, must come down. Spinnin wheel, got to go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 2-3 dday cycle projection pulls back to 3692. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 As Shakespeare famously wrote: To flatten or not to flatten, That is the question. Whether tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune Over the weekend, or to take the ARMS index against a sea of troubles, and by flattening, avoid them. Aye, there's the rub. First, let's kill all the economists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 If they break out through 3692, next target would be around 3703. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 Hourly indicators still bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 The 3 guys that are short the market have to be feeling some heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 New high in the 10 year yield today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 Bulls are tiptoeing out the backdoor. Will the selling pick up. Will shorts save the day in the last 20 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2020 The angle of the ED is definitely drooping. That guy Ed is such a con, you gotta hand it to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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