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All clear for bulls,or another trap?


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When does QE twist end? June?

 

The market topped in March so THIS time market topped 3 months ahead of the end of QE.

 

http://www.capitalst...pic=11489&st=90

 

Looking back at my March post. I ask again..."why would it be different this time?"

The difference is...they are front running it even earlier.

 

There's no QE in Twist. Fed balance sheet dead flat since last June.

 

When did LTRO end? Maybe that was when equity topped?

 

Correct.

LTRO from what I understand isn't handed out weekly over a period of time like QE but in a big bang. So it's influence dissipates over time. I think the last operation was in February.

 

Also correct.

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European big capital exodus into US banksters?

 

Bingo! Which I forecast, and have been covering in the Fed Report week in and week out. Capital flight says it all. Look at the performance of US stocks versus European. US bank deposits versus deposits in Europe southern tier and Ireland. It's all there and it's been a clear and coherent story right along the way.

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Golden Sacks possibly cutting down their S&P target for this year:

 

"Goldman Sachs Sees Potential S&P 500 Bear Market on Europe"

 

"While David Kostin’s mid-year forecast for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index calls for a 3.7 percent gain from last week’s close to 1,325, he said the measure may fall to 1,125 should the situation in Europe worsen. That would give the S&P 500 a more- than 20 percent loss since its 2012 closing peak of 1,419.04."

 

"Peter Oppenheimer, the London-based chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, reduced his three-month forecast for the Stoxx Europe 600 by 5.8 percent to 245 last week. The European measure slid 0.5 percent to 233.87 today."

 

"Barclays Plc’s Barry Knapp predicts the S&P 500 may fall to between 1,100 and 1,200 based on historic equity risk premium levels, which looks at forward earnings yield minus the real 10- year Treasury yield."

 

"“There is little room for optimism in this morning’s report,” Knapp, the New York-based head of equity strategy, wrote in the June 1 note after the release of the payrolls data."

 

http://www.bloomberg...-on-europe.html

 

All the big boyz leaning on the bearish view ;)

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