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Someone Said "charts, Schmarts!" Here Today


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The BARE hASS got hisself into hot water beFUR w his skepticism of TA generally, and cycle theory in particular.

 

Don't go ballistic, Doc. This is ofFURred in the spirit of diversity of inFURmed opinion.

 

And today there wuz some TA bashing aPAW in Mark to Mkt?

 

ANYhoo, The BARE, it seems, is SNOT alone in his laconic view of TA generally, and, INTER ALIA, cycle theory in particular. He hASS haunted Mark Young's TRADERS-TALK even longer than here, FURom ab initio in both cases, actually.

 

Technically, Mr Young ain't no slouch. He knows his stuff. And he attracts some of the best in the TA biz to his BORED including names like CrawFURd, Ike, Katz, Tomlinson, Drakulich, et al.

 

Well, HRFF nearly had a COW, ass t'were when he read what Mark had to say about CYCLE THEORY tonight in a thread over on the message BORED at Trader's Talk:

 

"I'll say it: I think that cycles are one of the better ways to get killed in the market. It's not that they don't 'work', it's that they work well enough to make you forget how important it is to use protective stops because SOMETIMES Cycles are VERY wrong."

 

http://www.traders-talk.com/site/mb/show_t...4172&folderid=1

 

And that, really wuz HRFF's point about ANY TA method, be it cycles or EWave or whatever. "SOMETIMES" nearly EVERY TA method can be "VERY wrong".

 

To each his/her own in TA land, and NON TA land.

 

If there were a panacea we'd all be rich.

 

Anyway, HRFF wanted y'all to see what someone of no mean stature in this stock market cyberworld, a message board potentate, had to say about cycle theory.

 

This doesn't mean HRFF endorses Mr Young's conclusion:

 

The BARE is agnostic. He deploys the diffidence of an ATTORNEY re any TA methodology: Maybe "yes", maybe "SNOT"; OTOH; OTOH; sometimes it works, sometimes it don't so ya gotta know WHAT works WHEN and that ain't so EASY, greasy.

 

Very POST MODERN uv The BARE, wot? LOL

 

oh. HRFF does SNOT use stops, SNOT so much that cycle theory works so well he FURgot to use 'em; he just hASSn't seen one yet that Da Boyz haven't tried to take out and usually succeeded given even modest volatility. So FUR that's worked the pASSt few weeks real good.

 

So FUR...

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If you're trying to front-run the cycles for maximum profit, you're taking maximum risk. Doc has repeatedly warned in anals not to get ahead of the cycles and wait for the obvious signals. I think most T/A types are trying to limit risk by taking lower profit but high probability trades. Howerver, most of us aren't that disciplined and try to get ahead of the patterns where we imagine really big gains are to be had. I remember FeedFool is a big proponent of waiting for the pattern confirmations and has repeatedly posted his charts warning stoolies not to get ahead of themselves. Seems that 'waiting on confirmation' is the hardest trick of all.

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