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Jimbo

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Posts posted by Jimbo

  1. RENDER CEASAR

    (Rather than render unto ceasar)

    I read a good book over xmas "The Ceasars Palace Coup"

    About the banrupcy and fight fo the assets of said company.

    So I decided to look at the companies financials.....

    When it wen't bankrupt the last time it had 24 Billion in debt.

    It now has 26 Billion in debt!!!!!!???????

    Talk about a stable financial structure!!!!....Not

    All its operating income goes on interest payments.

    Still has a market cap of 10 Billion.

    Can't wait to read "The  Ceasars Palace Coup 2.0".

     

  2. THE FEDIVERSE VS THE METAVERSE

    Who wants or needs to inhabit the metaverse when the FED created a financial fantasy world out of the real world....the Fediverse.

    If META chucked the metaverse the stock would probably double.

    The current  lack of printing is simply a welcome return to reality.

    Printing is belief....fantasy.

    The ominus spending bill not good for stocks and bonds....crowding out effect.

     

    • Like 1
  3. 2022........THE YEAR OF CRAZY

    We saw a lot of craziness in 2022

    1/ People thinking bonds were a good investment after the FED had inflated a large portion of thier real value away....

    2/ Someone paying $44 Billion for chatter.....just plain crazy.....

    3/ Anyone thinking Tesla was a good investment.....

    4/ Face book changing its name to Meta......and spending a vast amount on something people really don't want.....

    5/ Anyone sending ther money to the Bahamas to buy crypto....just plain crazy.....

    6/ Anyone who thought SPACs were still a good investment......

    Yes  it was the year of crazy.....

    • Like 1
  4. THOUGHTS ON 2023

    2022 was nice from a bear perspective.......

    I can't see 2023 being much different.....

    The big caveat being the pivot of course....

    Can't see the printers in the Eccles buiilding deviating from weak QT until something breaks that they don't want to break.

    They are quite happy to see crypto carried out on a perp walk.......

    The GFA's are at the top of the sacrifice pyramid.......

    BBB corporates......not so much.......

    Notice how they use the synthetics to guide the asset markets in the short term....

    A bear rally gets to boisterous.....they come out with the SQT (synthetice QT)

    A down gets too nasty...they come out with the SQE.

    They are using the synthetic for short/medium directional guidence to smooth out the bumps.

     

  5. THOUGHTS ON BANKS

    Every cycle its always something different that sinks the boat.....

    In the 19th centruy it was usually loans to railways....

    In the 30's it was real estate losses.......

    In the 70's it was loans to South American Governments

    In the 80's loans for junk bonds and US real estate and oil companies. 

    In the 2000's it was subprime....

    In the 2020's its losses on treasuries thanks to the big print and then the lack of the big print.

    Its always something new. 

    • Like 1
  6. JUST THE SAME OLD ACT

    Jay just doing his synthetic QE mime show........

    To go along with the not much real QT show.

    It's the lack of printing that has deflated the asset markets.

    The QT has been small and rather insignifcant....

    Until they actually go back to real QE I can't see a bull market developing.

    Not with all the defecits and crowding out effects.

    The GFA's will continue to deflate.

    The higher bond prices have casued a lot of damage in the financial system.

    We just can't see it....yet.

     

  7. WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE ASSET IN A FIAT REGIME????? 

    What is the most valuable thing in a fiat regime....

    Its not the currency....

    That eventualy becomes worthless...

    And it costs nothing to create the paper....

    And even less to creat the electronic book entry......

    No the most valuable thing in a fiat regime is......

    Answer : Its the exit liquidity.

    And what is the exit liquidity under a fiat regime?????

    Its the ability to print and inflate the Government's debt away.   

    And who provides the exit liquidity.

    All the bagholder/bondholders.

     

  8. YOUR PAVLOV TRAINING HAS BEEN COMPLETED

    Notice how the FED has over the past few years trained the asset markets to respond to synthetic QT and synthetic QE.

    Rather than to respond to the real QT and QE.

    Why the training?

    Well synthetic is much more flexible than the real.

    Your can turn it off and on in a microsecond with a lot less consequences for the real ecopnomy.

     

    RE the FED losing money.

    Many banks are in the same position.

    With a large portfolio of bonds yielding low rates.

    And having to pay higher rates on their deposits.

    Not pretty.

    Not pretty at all.

     

  9. WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE THING IN CRYPTO??????

    Its not the coin....thats obviously worthless.

    Answer:  Its the exit liquidity!!!!!!!!!!

    Without that the insiders can't dump their worthless native token for real money.

    That's why they pay internet influences a small fortune to pump their coin.

    Thats why they run their exhchanges at an operating loss to attrack traders and their associated deposits.

    Thats why they burn the VC's capital to subsidize trading.

    Thats why they then use the deposits to pump and price support the native token while they cash out. 

     

    • Like 1
  10. TRAINING THE MARKET DOGS

    And so the F$ED is now pumping out the synthetic QE. 

    All to train the market dogs....

    Constant re-inforcement....the reward....the doggy treat of a quick market up. 

    What quadrant are we in

    The real QT, synthetic QE quadrant .....

    We have left the real QT synthetic QT quadrant behind...

    The best quadrant for short sellers. 

    But stocks still overvalued and should be trading at 3000.

    SiPs great chart above suggests we will eventualy get there.

     

    The FED has become quite tricky

    Not only do you have to contend with sudden changes from QE to QT and from QT to QE

    You have to contend with sudden changes between synthetic QE and synthetic QT as well.

    The FED likes to really mix it up........

    Both at the physical and psycological level.

    All in order to confuse, bamboozle and confound Mr Market.

    Notice how they rolled out the synthetic QT in the middle of 2021 which was followed by not much real QT in 2022.

    Now they are rolling out the synthetic QE at end 2022 to be followed by.......

    Probably not much QE in 2023.

     

     

     

  11. SOME PONZI RATIOS

    Nike:

    Intrinsic value 70B Ponzi value 95B Price 166B

    Ratio ratio 95/165 or 0.57 

    57% of Nike is just hot air.

    Adidas

    Intrinsic value 40B Ponzi value - 16B Price 24B

    Ratio -16/24 or -0.66

    Yes...a negative Ponzi ratio

    Adidas trading 66% below intrinsic value.

    Value investors should invest in stocks with negative ponzi ratios.

    ETF suggestion

    A negative ponzi ratio ETF

    Say stocks with ratios below -0.5 

    Note we can then determine the "Ponzi differential" between the two stocks as

    0.57--0.66

    Or 1.23 ...123%.   

    i.e. if the two stocks eventually trade at their intrinsic values you should get a 123% outperformance by buying adidas instead of Nike.

    You could use this to create a Long/short ETF based on Ponzi differentials say over 1 or over 0.5 

  12. THE PONZI CINEMATIC UNIVERSE

    Just as comic book heroes have expanded into a cinematic universe.

    The concept of the Ponzi scheme has expanded into a ponzi financial universe. 

    If you look closely enough you can find a ponzi element in almost any asset.

    Assets can have an intrinsic element value and a ponzi value which combine to make up the asset price where the price exceeds the intrinsic value.

    In 2021 almost all bonds and stocks had a very large ponzi value....in many cases exceeding the intrinsic value of the asset.

    You can thank the FED for that. 

    Excess liquidity drives the ponzi value.

    You can then derive a Ponzi ratio for an asset...

    The ponzi value of the asset divided by the intrinsic value of the asset.

     

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