[Stocks on the Launchpad 1/17/23]

VERY STRANGE BOND CURVES

Something does'nt add up....

Why is the treasury curve inverted whilst the corporate and municipal curves are not?????????

Strange just strange

Someone is playing games.......

[5 Day Uptrend Busted in AM 1/13/23]

WHEN NARRATIVES DIE

Reading great book "Narrative Economics" by  Robert Shiller.

Crypto is a dying narrative.....

As all the dumb money gets drained away.....

So onto the next false narrative.......

Onto the next "magic box that will make you rich but you can never open it or the magic will disappear"

(hmmm this sounds like a good Hans Anderson story !!!}

  

[Getting Jobbed 01/06/23]

RENDER CEASAR

(Rather than render unto ceasar)

I read a good book over xmas "The Ceasars Palace Coup"

About the banrupcy and fight fo the assets of said company.

So I decided to look at the companies financials.....

When it wen't bankrupt the last time it had 24 Billion in debt.

It now has 26 Billion in debt!!!!!!???????

Talk about a stable financial structure!!!!....Not

All its operating income goes on interest payments.

Still has a market cap of 10 Billion.

Can't wait to read "The  Ceasars Palace Coup 2.0".

 

[Getting Jobbed 01/06/23]

2022.........THE YEAR THE FEDIVERSE WENT AWAY

Yes ....the Fediverse (TM) went away in 2022.

Too much reality has stunned the bond and stock investors.

They seek greedily for another blue pill.......  

Metaverse anyone???????

 

Can't wait for the sequel "Return of the Fediverse"

Director...Printer Jay

Producer....Pivot Pictures.

 

[Be Nimble, Be Quick 1/4/23]

IT'S WHAT YOU AVOID THAT MATTERS

Avoiding REITS and Bonds in 2022 was a very good idea.

 

[Be Nimble, Be Quick 1/4/23]

THE TESLA CULT MEMBERS

They were the exit liquidity......

Rest in peace.

[The Line Broke, But the Monkey Got Choked 1/3/23]

THE FEDIVERSE VS THE METAVERSE

Who wants or needs to inhabit the metaverse when the FED created a financial fantasy world out of the real world....the Fediverse.

If META chucked the metaverse the stock would probably double.

The current  lack of printing is simply a welcome return to reality.

Printing is belief....fantasy.

The ominus spending bill not good for stocks and bonds....crowding out effect.

 

[Yeah, Everybody Got it Wrong, Except this Guy 12/30/22]

2022........THE YEAR OF CRAZY

We saw a lot of craziness in 2022

1/ People thinking bonds were a good investment after the FED had inflated a large portion of thier real value away....

2/ Someone paying $44 Billion for chatter.....just plain crazy.....

3/ Anyone thinking Tesla was a good investment.....

4/ Face book changing its name to Meta......and spending a vast amount on something people really don't want.....

5/ Anyone sending ther money to the Bahamas to buy crypto....just plain crazy.....

6/ Anyone who thought SPACs were still a good investment......

Yes  it was the year of crazy.....

[Yet Another Stick Save- 12/21/22]

THOUGHTS ON 2023

2022 was nice from a bear perspective.......

I can't see 2023 being much different.....

The big caveat being the pivot of course....

Can't see the printers in the Eccles buiilding deviating from weak QT until something breaks that they don't want to break.

They are quite happy to see crypto carried out on a perp walk.......

The GFA's are at the top of the sacrifice pyramid.......

BBB corporates......not so much.......

Notice how they use the synthetics to guide the asset markets in the short term....

A bear rally gets to boisterous.....they come out with the SQT (synthetice QT)

A down gets too nasty...they come out with the SQE.

They are using the synthetic for short/medium directional guidence to smooth out the bumps.

 

[Monday Starts 5 Day Cycle Up Phase for Stocks 12/19/22]

THOUGHTS ON BANKS

Every cycle its always something different that sinks the boat.....

In the 19th centruy it was usually loans to railways....

In the 30's it was real estate losses.......

In the 70's it was loans to South American Governments

In the 80's loans for junk bonds and US real estate and oil companies. 

In the 2000's it was subprime....

In the 2020's its losses on treasuries thanks to the big print and then the lack of the big print.

Its always something new. 

[Lock in Your Losses, Let Your Profits Shrink 12/14/22]

JUST THE SAME OLD ACT

Jay just doing his synthetic QE mime show........

To go along with the not much real QT show.

It's the lack of printing that has deflated the asset markets.

The QT has been small and rather insignifcant....

Until they actually go back to real QE I can't see a bull market developing.

Not with all the defecits and crowding out effects.

The GFA's will continue to deflate.

The higher bond prices have casued a lot of damage in the financial system.

We just can't see it....yet.

 

[Nowhere, Man 12/12/22]

THE EXIT LIQUIDITY FILES

If you buy a greater fool asset and you don't know who the exit liquidity is............

Then you are the exit liquidity.

 

[Oh My Gawd! The Fed is LOSING MONEY! YOUR MONEY! 12/8/22]

WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE ASSET IN A FIAT REGIME????? 

What is the most valuable thing in a fiat regime....

Its not the currency....

That eventualy becomes worthless...

And it costs nothing to create the paper....

And even less to creat the electronic book entry......

No the most valuable thing in a fiat regime is......

Answer : Its the exit liquidity.

And what is the exit liquidity under a fiat regime?????

Its the ability to print and inflate the Government's debt away.   

And who provides the exit liquidity.

All the bagholder/bondholders.

 

[Oh My Gawd! The Fed is LOSING MONEY! YOUR MONEY! 12/8/22]

YOUR PAVLOV TRAINING HAS BEEN COMPLETED

Notice how the FED has over the past few years trained the asset markets to respond to synthetic QT and synthetic QE.

Rather than to respond to the real QT and QE.

Why the training?

Well synthetic is much more flexible than the real.

Your can turn it off and on in a microsecond with a lot less consequences for the real ecopnomy.

 

RE the FED losing money.

Many banks are in the same position.

With a large portfolio of bonds yielding low rates.

And having to pay higher rates on their deposits.

Not pretty.

Not pretty at all.

 

[Target 4122 12/2/22]

THE NON PUBLIC LISTED REITS

Yes....its gating time for the "investors".

That is what happens when the FED stops printing and the liquidity tide goes out.

Asset values go over the cliff. 

The wave is going down and they want to get of before it breaks.....

Should have dumped the lot in Jan 2022.

Too late....bad  luck. 

 

[Target 4122 12/2/22]

WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE THING IN CRYPTO??????

Its not the coin....thats obviously worthless.

Answer:  Its the exit liquidity!!!!!!!!!!

Without that the insiders can't dump their worthless native token for real money.

That's why they pay internet influences a small fortune to pump their coin.

Thats why they run their exhchanges at an operating loss to attrack traders and their associated deposits.

Thats why they burn the VC's capital to subsidize trading.

Thats why they then use the deposits to pump and price support the native token while they cash out. 

 

[Poowell Inserts the Finger 12/1/22]

THE CROWDING OUT EFFECT

Issuing an avalanche of Government debt while the Central bank does'nt print is called the crowding out effect.

Stocks get quite cheap during this process.

Like in the 70's.

It's heaven for value investors.

A large number of overleveraged corporates will need to be saved by someone.

[What Is It About 3965? 11/30/22]

TRAINING THE MARKET DOGS

And so the F$ED is now pumping out the synthetic QE. 

All to train the market dogs....

Constant re-inforcement....the reward....the doggy treat of a quick market up. 

What quadrant are we in

The real QT, synthetic QE quadrant .....

We have left the real QT synthetic QT quadrant behind...

The best quadrant for short sellers. 

But stocks still overvalued and should be trading at 3000.

SiPs great chart above suggests we will eventualy get there.

 

The FED has become quite tricky

Not only do you have to contend with sudden changes from QE to QT and from QT to QE

You have to contend with sudden changes between synthetic QE and synthetic QT as well.

The FED likes to really mix it up........

Both at the physical and psycological level.

All in order to confuse, bamboozle and confound Mr Market.

Notice how they rolled out the synthetic QT in the middle of 2021 which was followed by not much real QT in 2022.

Now they are rolling out the synthetic QE at end 2022 to be followed by.......

Probably not much QE in 2023.

 

 

 

[What Is It About 3965? 11/30/22]

WHAT BEAR MARKET

Altria is down only 4% this year.

Add in the 8% dividend and you would actually be up owning this stock this year.

What Bear Market???????

[The Stock Market Has a Date With Destiny 11/29/22]

AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE:

1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond.

2/Shorters/sellers of stocks.

3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks.

4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto.

And so onto the next game........ 

[The Stock Market Has a Date With Destiny 11/29/22]

AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE:

1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond.

2/Shorters/sellers of stocks.

3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks.

4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto.

And so onto the next game........ 

[The Stock Market Has a Date With Destiny 11/29/22]

AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE:

1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond.

2/Shorters/sellers of stocks.

3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks.

4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto.

And so onto the next game........ 

[Read My Lips, No New Longs 11/28/22]

BULL .....BEAR.......WHATEVER

Neither a perma bull nor perma bear be...

Just be right....which is difficult enough....

Re zero hedge...the comments section is deeply amusing for anyone who likes laughs.

The comentors basically spend their enitre time insulting each other. 

[Black Friday and the Miracle on Turdy-turd Street 11/25/22]

SOME PONZI RATIOS

Nike:

Intrinsic value 70B Ponzi value 95B Price 166B

Ratio ratio 95/165 or 0.57 

57% of Nike is just hot air.

Adidas

Intrinsic value 40B Ponzi value - 16B Price 24B

Ratio -16/24 or -0.66

Yes...a negative Ponzi ratio

Adidas trading 66% below intrinsic value.

Value investors should invest in stocks with negative ponzi ratios.

ETF suggestion

A negative ponzi ratio ETF

Say stocks with ratios below -0.5 

Note we can then determine the "Ponzi differential" between the two stocks as

0.57--0.66

Or 1.23 ...123%.   

i.e. if the two stocks eventually trade at their intrinsic values you should get a 123% outperformance by buying adidas instead of Nike.

You could use this to create a Long/short ETF based on Ponzi differentials say over 1 or over 0.5 

[Black Friday and the Miracle on Turdy-turd Street 11/25/22]

THE PONZI CINEMATIC UNIVERSE

Just as comic book heroes have expanded into a cinematic universe.

The concept of the Ponzi scheme has expanded into a ponzi financial universe. 

If you look closely enough you can find a ponzi element in almost any asset.

Assets can have an intrinsic element value and a ponzi value which combine to make up the asset price where the price exceeds the intrinsic value.

In 2021 almost all bonds and stocks had a very large ponzi value....in many cases exceeding the intrinsic value of the asset.

You can thank the FED for that. 

Excess liquidity drives the ponzi value.

You can then derive a Ponzi ratio for an asset...

The ponzi value of the asset divided by the intrinsic value of the asset.