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Everything posted by Jimbo

  1. THE PONZI CINEMATIC UNIVERSE Just as comic book heroes have expanded into a cinematic universe. The concept of the Ponzi scheme has expanded into a ponzi financial universe. If you look closely enough you can find a ponzi element in almost any asset. Assets can have an intrinsic element value and a ponzi value which combine to make up the asset price where the price exceeds the intrinsic value. In 2021 almost all bonds and stocks had a very large ponzi value....in many cases exceeding the intrinsic value of the asset. You can thank the FED for that. Excess liquidity drives the ponzi value. You can then derive a Ponzi ratio for an asset... The ponzi value of the asset divided by the intrinsic value of the asset.
  2. THE NATVIE TOKEN SCAM Looked at the FTX native token charts for FTT and SRM. An obvious price support operation was undertaken to prop up the tokens price from late May 2022 to early November 2022. (cant see this mentioned anywhere on the internet.......) Keeping the prices steady ...would cost a lot..... Who did this....best guess Alameda...... Where did they get the money to do this....best guess loans from FTX... Where did FTX get the money....best guess its the depositors money. So where did all the depositors money go....best guess ...eventually to the sellers of FTT and SRM during this period Will the liquidators persue them....good luck with that.... Unless the liquidator can use all the Madoff case law to establish a ponzi scheme was being operated and claw back money from the native token sellers as they were "net gainers" from the ponzi....the money is gone. Identifying the sellers will be difficult. The native token acts as the wealth transfer vehicle. Its what I call a "token ponzi"
  3. STRANGE FACTOID The tech stocks leaders in Australia still very overvalued on fundamental measures Wisetech, Xero, Computershare, Altium. Where is the Australian tech leader inverse ETF when you need it. Name of ETF for marketing purposes: The Bushranger ETF
  4. THOUGHTS ON THE LONG BOND The easy short money has already been made shorting the long bond. The risk/reward equation.....in my opinion......its just not worth it. This is not a high probability trade any more.
  5. NIKE FACTOID Price....$164 Billion Value....$70 Billion Price to value ratio 2.34 Overvaluation ratio 1.34
  6. The Trouble with Banks They have trillions in treasuries and MBS on their balance sheets. Holding them at hold to completion values....no mark to market for them. Think of the enormous losses they have not realised. They are going to have to pay way more on their deposits. But they are not going to get way more in interest on these bonds.
  7. THE CRYPTO BANK MAN RUN Falling one by one.... Yes the crytpo banks are being run out of asset town. There balance sheets full of worthless native tokens. The liquidators will need to FTM That's follow the money...... Its all about "Return of the native" Who were the native tokens originally issued to..... (my guess the original VC investors who put capital in and the company founders) for how much.... and who sold them.... and what were they sold for.... Those are the real issues. The liquidators need to really concentrate on getting a return of funds from the original native token holder owners.... Because they are the ones who have ended up with the money. If the liquidators dont do this then ultimate recoveries will be very poor... 10 cents on the dollar poor. Everything else is just absurd Kabuki theatre.
  8. LAWYER FEST 2023 The collpase of the GFA's (spacs, crypto) will be a complete lawyer fest in 2023.
  9. THOUGHTS ON THE BURRY He is always two steps ahead of every one else when he really needs to be just one step ahead of every one else.
  10. WHAT IS VALUE.......PART N+1 An asset with intrinsic value has an "Internal Value" the NPV of cash flows. A GFA...Greater Fool Asset (all of crapto) has an internal value equal to zero, but is does have in a manner have a real "External Value" equlivalent to its sale price. But the value achievement is entirely dependent on a sale of the asset. So the value of a GFA is really the sum of two values ...the sum of (Internal value = 0, plus ...external value = sale price). But the external value does not really belong or attach to the asset itself as it can only be achieved by selling the GFA. So the GFA is only really an "option" on achieving an "external value". The external value really attaches to the owner of the asset (as they exercise the option) and not the asset itself!!! As the value is decision dependent. While the GFA is owned it has no value. And when the asset is sold the value attaches to the owner not the sold asset!!!!! So the value really just transfers from owner to owner with the GFA really being a "psycological state" cipher inserted in between the owners to represent a time and value differential. The GFA in its purest form is a "psycological state/asset" Alter the phsycological state of the GFA, then you alter its price, and you alter the time/value equation. Thats why you get constant propganda....mantras.....endlessly repeated by "gurus" in the media such as Bitcoin will go to $100,000 by the end of the year etc etc..... The time/value equation is effectively your ROI on your GFA. Investors should stick to assets with "Internal Value" and avoid GFA's like the plague. (but we know they wont dont we....) Speculators can make money out of GFA assets with "External Value" if they know what they are dealing with...assets that in the long term are going to be worthless.
  11. STRANGE DAYS Elon pays $44 billion for chatter Its only worth about 8. Crazy days indeed. lnflation still 8%....ten year treasury should be 11% Only 700 basis points above where it currently trades. There is still too much craziness in the system. The numbers still do not add up correctly. Lets face stark reality. The FED was the greatest enabler of ponzi schemes and frauds in history.
  12. MORE THOUGHTS ON CRAPTO The blockchain has some uses. Crypto has some uses as a medium of exchange. But most crypo just used as a pump and dump ponzi scheme which appears legal unlike the normal illegal ponzi schemes. They appear legal as they sell something with a price (but no intrinsic value) called a token/coin. Thats why they all create there own token....so they can sell it to outsiders and cash out. Once the internal token loses value its game over. Crypto is great for insiders and speculators who make there money buying low and selling high. Its terrible for so called investors or hodlers as they are called who buy ....hold on....and lose everything. This is a very similar process as the other greater fool assets such as spacs and meme stocks.
  13. ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST....FTX Its just so much fun watching the crapto complex collapse little by little The FOMO has been replaced by FOLI... Thats "fear of losing in" for those who don't know ...the opposite of FOMO. The fear of loss by remaining in instead of out. The pump is all FOMO and the dump is all FOLI Think of the whole crypto madness as a giant phsycological sine wave powered by FED printing and a powerful industrial scale internet propaganda complex. If printer Jay hadnt gone monetary cold turkey it would still be alive and thriving.
  14. THE CAT NEEDS TO SLEEP The FED should be conducting a Quantitative Null policy...the pause....and not distorting the market. Anything else is simple interference in asset markets. Its still enough for the market to still go down.... Then the focus would shift from blaming the FED to blaming the US govt defecit. Something I think the FED would welcome.
  15. CENTRAL BANKS DE...EQITISATION SNB AND CS Yes...the reckless gamblers are being bailed out yet again.... Standard Central Bank operating procedure..... In the process the equity of the central banks basically gets transferred to the counter parties of CS et al and the other TBTF banks.... Thats the true beauty of entering into winning trades with the Too Big To Fail crowd Your counter party is really the central bank. No risk of counter party failure. Of course this de-equitizes the central banks...as someone always has to pay.
  16. THE SCHRODINGIAN FED CAT Consider the FED as a cat.... In a box..... The door is closed..... It has two levers it can pull..... One says.... QE...the market lives The other says....QT....the market dies What is "pause"..... The door opens to reveal that the cat is asleep.
  17. EACH DAY.... The screamdex rises a little more Already they are blinking with their synthetic pause QE. New Index.... The Cramerdex The Cramerdex measures the average intelligence of the stock market.
  18. THE PAUSE It didnt take the FED long to panic did it!!!!! Even the pause (no QT or QE) is still enough to continue to force the market down due to the crowding out effect. Short term bounce...sure....but.... But Nullity (the pause) is so much more politically defendable for the FED They can now say....who....me....Im not doing anything....don't blame me if the market is still going down...... And some good values are showing up...Addidas at 9 times FCF. Much cheaper than Nike. Of course pause not good for the dollar (relative to QT). QE would be even worse.
  19. THIS IS NOT CAPITULATION We hav'nt had capitulation yet. Until then every move up is a bear market rally.
  20. A FED MOMENT We dont have a Lehman moment this time round.... We have a FED moment.... As the FED is the joker in the pack this time around. Unpredictable, chaotic...dangerous. "A pause" Sounds like the Quantitative Null I predicted.
  21. THE RRP ....A GIANT TREASURIES BATTERY Yes...if the Fed drops the RRP rate below the FFR then money will come flooding out into short term treasuries. At least that is the theory. Its a giant battery of potential treasury purchases..... But a lot could go into stocks as well.....
  22. BILL GROSS IS RIGHT Nice article by Bill Gross on his website about how Total Return Bond funds are just closet indexers. And as a result their investors have taken a real bath in 2022. Correct. But he does no really explain why...I will..... It's all about the fees...which is all about AUM. In order to survive against the Index funds the TRBF's have had to become closet indexers to stem the loss of AUM. But this means they have have to give something up.....and that thing is downside protection which comes with the flexibility to shorten duration i.e. to not index. The problem is the fund managers do not pay for the thing given up ....the bond investors do....... So when they become closet indexers they get a valuable asset....a much longer lasting fee stream....resulting in much greater remuneration. But what they lose they dont pay for. The classic situation of....Heads I win...Tales You lose. And because of this lack of duration shortening in 2022 their investors have taken a bath. But at the end of the year they will point out to their investors that the index funds did'nt beat them....so there is really no point in withdrawing funds and putting it in an index fund. And the argument will probably work....mission accomplished.
  23. PIVOT OR..... THE DIVOT Sorry just can't resist a catchy headline.... Anyway.... Stocks and bonds still overvalued from what I can see. Even if they get inflation down to 4%-5% that's still no real return on bonds at current rates.... And pivot/printing means more inflation..... I still think this bear has 6 months to a year to go........
  24. ACTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES So the UK government decided to: 1/ Make a massive increase in expenditure. 2/ Make massive tax cuts. 3/ While inflation was raging.... Who was going to pay for all this.... The Bond holders looked around....saw no one else and said.... Not Me!!!!! Who could have seen that coming..... (That's a rhetorical question) In the mean time a large number of traders would have cleaned up. And such if life!!! So onto the next crisis/opportunity What will break next....... The sea is ceaselss and ever hungry!!!
  25. WHERE IS THE THE 100 YEAR BOND SHORT ETF If one existed it would be doing very well right now. You could even have a 3 times levered short one..... But I guess that would be pushing the envelope a bit too far....
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