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Everything posted by Jimbo

  1. The fewer shorts the better. What shorts don't realise is that they themselves are a contrary indicator. To make money as a short U have to be right at the right time.....not easy at all. Most invariably short too early. And get burned....the story through most of 2021. And get short squeezed out. Look at wirecard or gaotu. It's the latter shorts that make the easy money. They wait for the technicals and phsycologicals to align with the fundamentals. It's not enough for the market to know a stock is a scam/failing business model it has to accept it as being a scam/failing business model. The space between knowing and acceptance is the danger space for short sellers. Knowing is not acceptance. If you want to make money as a short seller you need to look around and find your the only one at the party.
  2. The Sign Hood Uber Webroke all below IPO level. The IPO level can be regarded as a pivot point for these stocks. A lot of shareholders fold at that level. Also very psychologicaly damaging for the stock.
  3. TRANSITORY TRANSITORY So the Fed finally dumps the idiotic transitory meme. And shows its true colours. The Fed wants inflation.....badly. All the juice has been squeezed from this lemon of a false narrative. And so it goes into the garbage bin of financial history. Of course those who bet on inflation trades are doing well. Keeping on the right side of the Fed and history. Bond holders are bag holders.
  4. ROBINHOOD REDUX Now at 27 ....7 below the IPO On the way to zero
  5. Robin hoods not so merry shareholders Stock now below IPO level. Ha ha ha. So overvalued. The attempt to meme the stock failed. Probably because the market cap just too big.
  6. TRANSITORY Does the word transitory refer to either of: A/ Inflation B/ Jays term as Fed chair You can only use yes once
  7. The joy of 30 year treasuries So I can buy a 30 yr bond yielding under 2% while inflation is above 6%. And only throw 4% of my capital away every year for the next 30 years. Sounds good to who??
  8. This feels all so top top topy!!! Happy birthday stool Remember: Printing is an act of default. Inflating the money supply is a defaltory act. Bondholders dont get back the real value of what they lent. Shareholders benefit greatly from the inflationary default. Owning stocks is a free ride on inflation so long as the stock, ie. the company has fixed rate debt attached which is below the inflation rate. The future value of this benefit is discounted back to a net present value and incorporated into stock prices. I call this the "J Sum Number".
  9. THE FED PLAYS THE TRANSITORY EXTENSION GAME So the Fed will keep on redefining transitory. For longer and longer periods. Can't let a great false narrative die until all the juice has been squeezed from the lemon. Can't wait for the new FED definition "transitory means 3 to 5 years".
  10. THE BIG COMP So transitory is dead Long live the next FN!!!!! That stands for false narrative The Fed needs to improve its false narrative game It's an international laughing stock!!!! The Fed really needs to have narratives that rate highly on the FNCI Jimbo has an idea Drumroll please: They have a false narrative competition Cash prizes for the best false narrative My entry: "Inflation is contained" Worked for sub prime for quite a while!!!!!!!
  11. The FNCI Your right Transitory deserves a 1 right now. The Fed is just trying to keep the bond herd from stampeding while the smart money quietly exits. Whilst the Fed is printing at a rate of 7% of GDP annually. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is printing at 12%. So Australia will get more inflation. The Aussie will fall against the dollar. And the J number will be higher in Australia.
  12. INTRODUCING A NEW INDEX I would like to introduce a new index. The false narrative credibility index. The F N C I. This index tracks the credibility of a false narrative. The level of belief that the narrative retains. From 1 to 100. Take the transitory narrative as an example. It's at about 10 right now.
  13. So goes the false narrative. Fed has to abandon the "transitory" narrative. I wonder what they will come up with next. Should be entertaining.
  14. THE TAPER YOU HAVE WHEN YOU DONT TAPER I just love the FED's fake taper narrative. Somehow the deadline keeps being extended out into the wild blue yonder. Its called synthetic tapering. The FED wont bother with the real stuff while the synthetic stuff still works. And it is still working very nicely. Yes Jay is in line for two false narrative awards. I have dubbed the awards "JAYS". One for Inflation is transitory The other for we will taper shortly. He is really on a roll.
  15. ALLMOST ALL STOCKS CAN STILL MAKE WAY WITH THIS WIND So long as the fed keeps on providing the fair wind of QE most stocks will continue to rise. But the markets tired and the wind not as effective as it once was. Real rates this negative cant last. The market is delicate. Its fragile.
  16. IF THE WORD "TRANSITORY" TRADED LIKE A STOCK Then it would be trading like a chinese education stock right now.
  17. THE REPO WINDOW AND DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS In order to keep the party going the FED needs to lend to dumb money...the dumber the better..... The smart money is increasingly sitting on the sidelines and simply refuses to borow....no matter how negative rates are..... Who doubts that Robin Hood will qualify as a depository institution. Yep....the REPO window will be put at the disposal of all the Robin Hood day traders....
  18. ETF Suggestion of the Day Once apon a time I suggested an ETF stuffed with stocks the various arms of the US government was persecuting. On the basis htat they would recover when the persecution stopped. Hence the idea of the Tom and Jerry ETF was born. Well this idea can now be extended to China. How about the Whinnie the Pooh ETF Based on the same principles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Indeed DIsney could probably get into the ETF business.
  19. GARBAGE IPO OF THE DAY Robbing Hood Now they will (If they can) turn it into a meme stock.
  20. JUST TOO WEIRD FOR WORDS TIPS have negative yeilds of minus 2% How is that even remotely normal. Who buys this stuff?????????? Bond masochists!!!!!!!!!
  21. BONDHOLDERS....SUE THE FED Where are all the class ations from the Bondholders against the FED. They have all lost a fortune from all the printing. Uncle Warren's great Oxy deal has been turned into a bad deal by the FED. Whats 8% return when inflation is 6% and about to go to 10% ....thats a minus 2% return per annum for the next ten years, a 20% haircut a loss of $2 billion on the $10 billion invested. Thats what happens when you dont "FED proof" your deals against inflation. (and a great deal for the common share holders...........who would have thought that the virus would have rescued the Oxy management???) Chevron had an great oportunity to swallow Oxy cheaply in early 2020 .....and blew it!!!!!!!!!! Where are all the lawsuits????????
  22. WHAT THE FED IS REALLY AFRAID OF Its worried that the collapse of the long bond end will feed into and infect the short duration bond space. Thats why it started some hawkish talk. Therefore the current meme: "Interest rate rises not now but sometime in the "distant future." A deliberately schrodingian meme desgined to soothe the bond market herd and stop any possible stampede of the bond herd out of the slaughteryard pen. Its a disposable meme that will be dispensed with when it has serves its purpose. Anybody notice how the J number term I invented is a pun on the first name of the chair of a certain central bank?
  23. THE GREAT CURVE INANITY Current false narrative "The FED is behind the curve on inflation" Reality: The FED is always ahead of the curve on inflation because it creates it.................... Inflating the money supply is a deliberate and concious act of the Fed. The FED then pretends to be behind the curve on inflation. So it does not get blamed for the inflation. This is blame shifting methodology 101.
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