When you're talking about the 5 day cycle, things happen fast. In an uptrend, up phases are skewed to the right in time. Down phases don't last long. And a 5 day cycle low is ideally due today.
Yesterday, the ES 24 hour S&P futures failed to reach the 5 day cycle projection of 5275. It was stopped at a trend resistance line at 5260, which I had pointed out in the AM, as being a possible stopping point.
But as with everything, it's temporary. There's an itty bitty downtrend in force this morning, and an itty bitty head and shoulders breakdown that has a conventional measured move price target of 5220-25. But there's a spport trend convergence in the 8-9 AM hour around 5225. These often market pivot points.
Ladies and gentlemen, place your odors. A Top is In, But Which One Is It
As of today +22.8% with another stop picked off.
For moron the markets, see:
Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag March 20, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024
A Top is In, But Which One Is It March 17, 2024
Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes March 15, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
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Thanks! That's 22.7%, and on the month so far only 13.7% including a spate of losers closed early in the month.
I've been continually refining the algo, especially in the past couple of months since I've gotten well settled into my home in Nice.
The screening system is at the point now where it generates no more than 5 buys and 5 sells per day and they've been doing well. It saves me the trouble of looking at dozens, if not more than a hundred charts and making judgements. My judgement ain't that good. This is pure math.
What excites me is that it occasionally generates a signal on a stock a day or two before it breaks out or breaks down. As long as the rest don't lose too much, it's good.
Has it really topped out? Maybe not yet, but it's close. As I pointed out yesterday, the conventional measured move target of a high base breakout would be around 5275, so let's allow for that. However, the 5 day cycle projection stands at 5245-55, and that's done.
The 2 hour bar chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures is also in the "well maybe" camp, although it shows trend resistance around 5260-65 today. Today would ideally be the day for the 5 day cycle to top out. So whether there's another 20-25 points left in this move, today is likely the day for second thoughts to start setting in. Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag
Looking at the hourly chart, we see hourly cycle oscillators that have ticked to the sell side. But they are so high up in positive territory that it means there's plenty of residual bullish momentum for prices to continue to trend higher at a slower rate for the time being. There's also a rising trend spport line today from around 5240 to 5250 that I'd look at as a constraint for any pullback today.
Meanwhile, my cycle screen swing trade list continues to do extremely well as trailing stops protect increasing profits. A stop was hit on two of the shorts, taking them out with nice profits. Another stop was hit on just one of the longs also taking it out with a nice profit and at a better price than its current price. As a result, the current performance the 11 picks on the list this week, including open picks and those stopped out this week, shows an average gain of 22.7% on an average holding period of 37 calendar days. For the month of March so far, including previously closed trades, the average gain is 13.7% on average holding period of 32 calendar days.
The tweaks that I have made recently to the screening algorithms have now completely automated the process and that appears to be working by removing my judgement from the process. 😁 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024
Past performance does not suggest future results.
For moron the markets, see:
Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag March 20, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024
A Top is In, But Which One Is It March 17, 2024
Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes March 15, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
The circus is in town today. Elephant droppings will be everywhere. Ringmaster Jerome Powell will lead the clowns as they parade around the ring, entertaining the crowd who will oooh and ahhh and laugh at their next trick and pratfall. The bigtop opens at 2 PM in New York, but the center ring won't be in full swing until the ringmaster shows up to whip the crowd to a frenzy at 2:30. The stock market will twist and turn with nervous anticipation, with trepidation followed by paroxysms of wild cheering as the acrobats fly through the air with the greatest of ease.
So we wait for their arrival. Meanwhile the 5 day cycle projection has now vectored steadily toward 5215. Whether it comes before, or after the show, is the only question.
The chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures shows "just a bit" of resistance at 5188. Piece a cake. Once the break that, that big high base pattern breakout would have a conventional measured move target of 5270-75.
Just sayin.
Wuz this wrong? Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits That's the nice thing about trailing stops. As long as the price continues to trend in the right direction, you stay in.
Man! There's so much green on that chart, you can't see the trees for the forest!
For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024
A Top is In, But Which One Is It March 17, 2024
Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes March 15, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
The circus is in town today. Elephant droppings will be everywhere. Ringmaster Jerome Powell will lead the clowns as they parade around the ring, entertaining the crowd who will oooh and ahhh and laugh at their next trick and pratfall. The bigtop opens at 2 PM in New York, but the center ring won't be in full swing until the ringmaster shows up to whip the crowd to a frenzy at 2:30. The stock market will twist and turn with nervous anticipation, with trepidation followed by paroxysms of wild cheering as the acrobats fly through the air with the greatest of ease.
So we wait for their arrival. Meanwhile the 5 day cycle projection has now vectored steadily toward 5215. Whether it comes before, or after the show, is the only question.
The chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures shows "just a bit" of resistance at 5188. Piece a cake. Once the break that, that big high base pattern breakout would have a conventional measured move target of 5270-75.
Just sayin.
Wuz this wrong? Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits That's the nice thing about trailing stops. As long as the price continues to trend in the right direction, you stay in.
For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024
A Top is In, But Which One Is It March 17, 2024
Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes March 15, 2024
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
Done, and we have a new 5 day cycle projection of 5225. No 2-3 day cycle projection. 4 day basis is 5190. 4 day duration has been common in recent times. That would put the top ideally Tamara.
Anything special going on Tamara?
When you read about those Nsidious chips with 200 billion transistors, it's kinda scary.
I remember listening to Wilt score 100 points on a 6 transistor radio. Imagine what he coulda done with billions of transistors.
