I've had a fantastic week of travel from home in Nice to Paris, to Berlin, to my previous home of Warsaw. I still love Warsaw, despite its foibles and the often shitty weather. It's a great city. I like it much better than I liked Berlin.
But that's not fair. I didn't like Berlin all that much. On my list of favorite European cities, it ranks near the bottom. It's interesting, definitely worth a visit, but I always size up cities with the view of, "Would I want to live there?" In the case of Berlin, the answer is no.
As for the market, I'm running late trying to finish two Liquidity Trader reports before NY opens.
What to say? My goodness, we've been going nowhere. But at least we're doing it with alacrity.
The ES 24 hour S&P futures have been in a range for so long, I feel right at home with it.
It keeps making triangle patterns, breaking out, and then failing to extend the breakout. It's as if they want you to think that the charts don't "work" any more.
At the moment, around 7 AM NY time, they're at a key resistance trend point around 4142-43. Bwaha. They can count. If they get through that, then 4148 is the next key resistance. Clearing that might get something going. Having been well trained to expect failure to launch, might this be the time they smack the bears? I don't know. Prove it.
If they don't break out, I'd look for the market to end the day at the great Dick Trickle Memorial Point of 4139 at 7 PM ET.
The DTMP will be at 4131 on Thursday.
Bottom line, the market is untradeable. Take some vacation days.
Meanwhile, the bond market has found perfect equilibrium at 3.50 on the 10 year. More on that and the impact on stocks coming up in a Liquidity Trader update to be posted later this morning.
Finally, here's a weekly chart of gold. Is it settling in for a long consolidation, or will it just break out and leave everybody in its dust?
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For moron the markets, see:
The Twilight Zone May 15, 2023
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023
There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023
Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023
Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
Farewell to Berlin!
And Good morning from the train to Warsaw. I expect to have a sporadic and weak internet connection while on this ride for the next 5 hours.
Have you ever noticed how the stock market imitates life and and life imitates the stock market. Yesterday it was the Wall and Checkpoing Charlie. Today it's a sporadic, weak internet connection, about the shape of the bull move in stocks.
I noticed that of course there's a broad consensus that the debt ceiling drama will be a catastrophe. Uh... I don't think so. The markets will go on. It will be a non event.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury has stopped paying down T-bills. The tax windfall cash was exhausted early, most likely because the debt ceiling is having an impact.
But how then do they continue to issue new debt, both bills and coupons? Easy peasy. Pay down intragovernmental debt, IOUs to things like the Social Security Trust Fund. Not sure how long that can go on. There are some legally mandated payment due dates looming.
But they probably have ways to get around that too. Frankly, it's too much budgetary arcana and speculation for me. And it's mostly useless. This market isn't going anywhere. The range is the range until it isn't. Trade the charts.
That said, I keep wondering why my swing trade stock screens keep spitting out a plethora of buys and not many sells. Frankly, I don't trust it, but I'm going with it and letting it ride until proven wrong. For the last few weeks, it has been a nothingburger, but at least no big losses.
Today's intraday pattern on the ES 24 hour S&P futures shows a bit of promise for the bulls, with higher lows, and a triangle pattern. The 5 day cycle is in an up phase that should run through Monday or Tuesday. If they can clear 4148, then there's a good chance of taking out the last minor high of 4158 and blasting off. If either of those levels hold, bears will still have a shot, but not much of one. Nothing will happen unless they take out 4098.
The 5 day cycle projection is 4165-70.
One apparently developing consensus is that a debt ceiling crunch will be bullish for longer term Treasuries. Correct in the short run, but very, very wrong in the long run. Here's why.
Only if the bond bulls can get the 10 year under 3.20 do they have a shot at making an extended run.
Meanwhile, gold's bullish big picture looks like it is set up for a pullback, but the real level to watch is 1992. Was that a good year? I don't remember.
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
For moron the markets, see:
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023
There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023
Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023
Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
The Russians are no longer communist. But they are still the problem. This is a cultural character issue, not an issue of political system. It dates back a thousand years and continues today.
Berlin is living history museum and monument to the international political history of our lives. Since 1945, one thing is a constant.
The Russians are always the problem.
No that is not a political statement. Although it could be. Sadly. It's about the bulls, and the direction of the market.
The flat squeeze goes on. Not that we should be surprised. There's been plenty of liquidity around over the last month, but traders have just been sweeping back and forth through this cleaned out range. Nobody wants to risk cash above resistance, and bears are covering their shorts when the market pulls back to sport levels.
It is, after all, sport.
In the very short run, where our focus is on this thread, why should we expect anything to change? Uh, no, we shouldn't. In the big picture, it will change, but here and now, not likely. Yet.
In terms of today's outlook, the 5 day cycle on the ES 24 hour S&P fuctures has been running 4-6 days, which is normal variation. The cycle entered and up phase after yesterday's late selloff. That up phase could top out any time from today through Monday. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 4175. It's iffy, but the hourly cycle oscillators started the move from near the zero line, which usually translates into a big move. So I'm thinking second wind coming. If they clear 4158, look out above.
I won't bore you with what bears need to do to get anything going. The chart is clear about sport line after sport line below where we are now as of 5:30 AM ET. If they test the high and roll over, with cycle oscillators turning down from below the prior peak then we can talk.
Meanwhile, bond land is loving it some 3.20 to 3.60 on the 10 year. The permanently low plateau goes on. Here's what should happen. Be prepared.
Attention gold fans! Should we be worried?
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
For moron the markets, see:
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023
There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023
Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023
Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
Today I'm just trying to get familiar with the city a little bit. Cuz I'm headed for Warsaw on Friday. I'll be coming back here in July for 3 or 4 days to see all the sights.
That's right. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures are down 0.1% this morning as of 6:45
AM ET. A 5 day cycle projection of 4100-4105 suggests that the market could break the overnight low of 4107. So be prepared for that. We're now 4 days into a 5 day cycle. The low could come at any time today or tomorrow.
The numbers to watch:
On the upside for resistance 4128 and 4130. If those are cleared, then 4140 and 4149. Clear those and it will be off to the races to 4188 again.
On the downside, there's a sport level at 4107, and descending trend sport at 4105 as NY opens and 4102 at the close. If they get busted, bears can run with it. There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook
4107-4127 is snoozeland.
Meanwhile, over in bond land, we wait for a breakout signal. The Big One is Coming
Who doesn't like gold here? Check out this long term weekly chart. Gold Is on the Brink
That's all for now. I'm going sightseeing. Here's the view from my hotel.
That's the Berlin TV Tower. Tourist attraction. Built by the Commies.
I think I'll stay on the ground.
Until we meet again, Alf Veeder Zayn, chairman of the Berlin Stock Exchange, wishes you Guten Tag und viel Glück.
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
For moron the markets, see:
Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023
There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023
Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023
Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
