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DrStool

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  1. If they take out 5455, could be interesting. Would be an early failure of the 5 day cycle up phase.
  2. Looks like we got a head and shouldery lookin thing on there.
  3. I had nuclear medicine stress test done last week. Great results. I'm healthy! Whoopee! I received the results by mail. My doctor got them electronically. Now that my government health account is set up, I will receive future test results and prescriptions through the online account. The government insurance system paid most of the cost. My share was 83 euros, of which the government insurance fund will pay 76. That was the doctor fee. The test fee was around 350. The test I had done would have cost $3000-4000 in the US. I was at the outpatient hospital clinic for 3 hours, undergoing 3 separate scans. They rotated a number of patients through the various stages of the tests like clockwork. The tax cost of the health care program for middle and upper income taxpayers is around 9.2% of taxable income. Compare that to the percentage of income Americans pay for insurance. On average it's 18% of GDP. Sick alright.
  4. I am so impressed with the efficiency, professionalism, and low cost of the French health care system, it just blows my mind. The US medical industry is a mafia syndicate. The skimming and corruption is mind bending. The politicians who are against reform are all on the take. Protection money. When you see how the rest of the world works, it is truly sickening.
  5. In March 2020, the market reaction was delayed 13 days after the Fed began massive QE. It almost did not work.
  6. Sure. Buyers have to raise the cash to buy the issue. Or repo it.
  7. Today's swing trade screens of approximately 1300 NYSE and NADSAQ chips that meet price and volume criteria, 43 had swing trade buy setups, of which 6 triggered. 82 had sell setups of which 31 triggered. That's a humungous and growing number. Either my screening model has turned to shit, or something is cooking. Report coming up later.
  8. Rangebound markets make predicting difficult, especially about the future. However, we look to things like time, the odds favor the upside for the next 2 days or so. The hourly cycle indicators suggest that a 5 day cycle low has formed, and that the next high isn't ideally due until Wednesday. Where might this lead? For starters, the ES, 24 hour S&P futures face resistance around 5484. If they manage to get through that, the little bottom pattern thus formed would conventionally measure to around 5510. If they don't get through, prepare your chutes. Weak Trend Status Quo In Liquidity Trader we forecast and track the outlook for Treasury supply, which is a major determinant of the direction of both bonds and stocks. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man The end of the month has potentially cataclysmic implications. While there have been about 65 billion in T-bill paydowns sending cash back to various market entities, that's not enough to fund the $144 billion that will smack the market in the final week of June. It gets worse in July. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stick It June 24, 2024 Weak Trend Status Quo June 23, 2024 Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man June 20, 2024 Dr. Gold Stopped the Bleeding Just in Time June 16, 2024 May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish June 6, 2024 After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest June 4, 2024 June Swoon Called Off May 29, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
  9. Working on this today. Little bit of lead, little bit of lag. Still bullish. I will track this regularly in Liquidity Trader Money Trends reports. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man
  10. But there was no positive divergence on the hourly oscillators at that low, so retest or lower low still likely.
  11. The downtrend is broken and the 5 day cycle oscillator is buried, 5 days from the last low. Or is it broken?
  12. Temperature 104 and power blackout on Croatia's coast. As you recall, I lived there for 13 months in 2020-21. One summer during the pandemic. It gets hot there. Tough without AC.
  13. This is a correction of my original paragraph above. Sorry about the error.
  14. This is interesting. $65 billion in paydowns with more likely to be announced next week. But look at that festering boil at the end of the month. Just waiting to be popped. How the market will respond depends on how much more cash is coming from T-bill paydowns next week, methinks. Here's the latest blueprint, posted yestiddy. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man Net Cash Pay Down in Millions of Dollars, by Date Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 07/01/2024 Coupons $196,000 $101,452 $94,548 06/28/2024 Coupons $49,000 $0 $49,000 06/27/2024 Bills $200,000 $215,996 $(15,996) 06/25/2024 Bills $200,000 $214,976 $(14,976) 06/20/2024 Bills $200,000 $218,976 $(18,976) 06/18/2024 Bills $200,000 $214,948 $(14,948) As I mentioned yesterday, there were a ton of actionable sell signals from swing trade screens based on Tuesday's close. I spent the first couple hours yesterday laying on shorts. By late afternoon I was 2 to 1 short. It didn't help. I got clobbered. But with my "system" I have to give these setups a week to play out for starters. If I'm not here next Friday, it's because I jumped off a tall building. Wait... There are no tall buildings here. OK, so I will gut it out. As for today, the screens generated 23 buy setups of which 3 triggered. There were 56 sell setups of which 20 triggered. This shows follow through on Tuesday's bumper crop of sell signals. As for today. The S&P fucutures have broken a bit of spport at 5470, and set up a bit at 5457. According to the New York Sun, yes, Virginia, there is a downtrend. But he will be killed above 5482. Prepare to say the Mourner's Kaddish just in case. As I will for my trading capital. Today is the Fete de la Musique here in France. It's a music festival for the entire country, coinciding with World Music Day. The square where I live is a major venue. Starting at 6:30 PM (12:30 ET) I will be subject to continuous, ear splitting, brain pounding electro-techno "musique." I will survive. At least, that's what they told me in the 80s. Of course, we are all well aware that that's false, so have fun while you can. Do what you love. Follow your dream. If you come to a fork in the road take it. And rage against the dying of the light. Just call me the King of Cliche. A toot a lore. For moron the markets, see: Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man June 20, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Swinging and Missing June 17, 2024 Last Gasp of a Dying Uptrend June 17, 2024 Dr. Gold Stopped the Bleeding Just in Time June 16, 2024 May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish June 6, 2024 After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest June 4, 2024 June Swoon Called Off May 29, 2024 The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
  15. On balance, the reports have been bullish and support the bullish TA. Saying that liquidity wasn't bullish leaves a misimpression. They have been. Today's report said, "It's a similar story from the other drivers. There’s enough liquidity to keep the rally going for a bit longer. But the sands of time are falling to the bottom of the hourglass. Long for now, but not for long, looks like the watchword for this market. Tick tock." I also have written repeatedly that liquidity establishes context but TA is for action. Liquidity forecasts tell us where to be on the alert for changes of trend. A negative divergence isn't actionable in itself. It's an alert for change of trend ahead. It tells us that if the divergence isn't resolved and a turn happens, believe it.
  16. I had a series of cardio tests. 3 of them. First 1 resting scan first. Then they give you some cookies and water and you wait. Then bicycle stress test. Then, a madeline and water, and wait for the heart to slow. Then another resting scan. When I arrived the processed me in in 10 minutes. They told me the tests would take 4 hours. I was in and out in 3. I have an online healthcare account for payment accounting, medical communications, and coordination between my primary, and the specialists, and me. So far advanced to the US system. Not even close. No wonder France is ranked in the top 10 in the world. US is 43rd, between Azerbaijan and Mexico or something like that.
  17. In my daily swing trade screens from Tuesday's close, 44 charts were in buy setups and 72 were in sell setups. But get this. 6 of the buy setups triggered. 27 of the sell setups triggered. Either that's a big deal, or my algo sucks.
  18. I'll tell you what's streamlined and well organized. The French healthcare system. Wow! I am definitely impressed. It delivers efficient, high quality care for all at half the cost of the US system. I went for tests yesterday. The cost to me was nominal. It's not free. The tax rate for health care is 9.2% of taxable income after deductions and exemptions. By comparison, the waste and skimming in the US system is sickening. Americans are brainwashed. What a terrible waste of money and resources. The system serves only the providers. Not the patients. US health care cost as a % of income. Overall it's about 19% of GDP.
  19. And not very well organized. Hard to find what you're looking for.
  20. Inexcusable that I did not make note of that before. I've looked at that data in the past. But mostly in terms of MMF RRP positions. It's a massive database.
  21. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JUNE 20, 2024 Repo data has been an important part of our liquidity analysis for many years. But the data had shortcomings. It showed only the banking system data, which is not the entire repo market by far. And it was only somewhat timely, offering a weekly snapshot with a 10 day lag. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. I have found something better. It’s daily data on the entire repo market, current through the last business day before yesterday. No surprise, it correlates with the trend of stock prices and even shows evidence of divergences that precede changes of stock market trends. Non-subscribers, click here for access. The current data through Monday supports the stock market rally, but only up to a point. A negative divergence has developed since January. A breakdown from here could be a bearish signal for stocks. A breakout would be bullish confirmation. They’re not at either point yet, but it’s now week to weak. Pun intended. We’ll keep an eye on it. Non-subscribers, click here for access. It’s a similar story from the other drivers. There’s enough liquidity to keep the rally going for a bit longer. But the sands of time are falling to the bottom of the hourglass. Long for now, but not for long, looks like the watchword for this market. Tick tock. Non-subscribers, click here for access. This report illustrates each component of the liquidity data to give you a complete view and deeper understanding of the dynamics that drive market trends so that you can invest and trade with greater confidence. Non-subscribers, click here for access. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
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