I was in CST!
As a parting shot...
I had to set this one up quick and dirty...
This is the exact same chart I showed you off the March 29th peak. Do you remember?
So...what was I showing you then...and now?
A Fractal...within a Fractal!
AND...If I add an 'ECHO' from the past?
Have you begun to notice that I haven't added many new charts lately? Just rehashing the old stuff and doing a lot of repeating?
Why is that?
Because I've already laid out exactly what is going to take place and now...I'll just be reiterating my comments over and over until we reach the magnet.
Then the lessons come again...
I'm a sneaky son of a bitch...you'd do well not to forget that.
Like I said...those who pay attention early...get paid.
To further elaborate on my thoughts about 89 to 92 from the other day...
"If you study the topic above...there are hidden pearls within"
It might pay to go back a page and peruse the comments I added to "Through the Looking Glass". If you understand what I've written...the future bodes well for you.
My current thoughts have not changed...
3900 is of no consequence. 3750 validates the topping pattern(from the January 5th peak) and the KEY is...you're joking right? 3900 silly.
The actual real decline(from the topping pattern) doesn't begin until 3750 cracks(on volume). Then. And only then...it's game on.
I'll see you the moment we cross 3750...
I'll repost this. The "Dust in the Wind" chart will be complete at the MAGNET(March 23, 2020 lows). The commentary from the chart? Will only begin...
"The Perfect Storm" that will cause the "misstep" is ramping up right now.
Unfortunately...the train is right on schedule.
Dust in the Wind
Lehman Brothers...September 15, 2008.
From "Through the Looking Glass" - April 22, 2022
I'm going to add this commentary to "Through the Looking Glass"
If you view the January 5th peak on the right side of the chart? As you leave the topping pattern you enter into two distinct 1x by 1x patterns that will mirror each other in time/price with "a rest period" in between. The only caveat to this scenario is that in either 1x period of time you can have a very short term crash phase that will distort the chart in price/time...BUT...does nothing to disturb the overall nature of the pattern.
After the 1x/1x period of decline is over "at the established MAGNET", which in today's terms is the March 23, 2020 lows. Then you'll be treated to a reversal that "should" rally until at least just above the "area of rest"(when the momentum/liquidity fades...it will fail.) before falling away into the actual crash phase that should last...at a minimum...18 months, but up to 30 months(based on historical data) can't be ruled out.
At the end of the day the crash phase will bring the balance sheet of this country back into balance.
Not a moment before.
It is at/below 3750...we leave our current topping pattern.
Do your brain a favor and just toss the television out the window...
I'll be here the moment we cross 3750.
From my perspective. Two weeks from now...today will be remembered as nothing more than a blip(on the screen).
While at a later date, our current decline from the January 5th peak will be viewed(overall) as a "cascading" decline...the crash phase will not show up until shortly after the rest at 3250.
Now...I say the above with one caveat.
When you have a 1x/1x decline with 3250 as the rest area(3250 being the line of division). Then you CAN receive two mirrored crash phases, one before AND one after. Even though I do consider this to be an unlikely proposition....it does have to be mentioned as a possibility.
I'm not in the office at the moment(health issue), but I do believe the 14th was on my list as a short window? If I recall...it wasn't much of a window and only popped up every few years. Although, you never know.
I willl repeat...the 21st to 22nd are what I have my thoughts on.
From my perspective.
Nothing...has to make sense.
Only the market itself...is a leading indicator. Fundamental assumptions(aka: your own narrative) need not apply.
The first rule I teach. Define the patterned behavior within the issue(or area) of interest...and then teach the student(s) to trade the issue against(in comparison to) itself.
This should begin to make sense…
The last rule?
Events(in this life) are nothing more than Fractals Fractured(Staggered) by the Nature of Time.
The Queen has died today, September 8, 2022. That is one year minus a day from ?
My call is that Will's ends up holding the reins(of power). Maybe not today...but sooner than most would speculate.
Again. I'll say...Happy 40th Will's.
It's not Russia or Taiwan my mind has been on...It's Balmoral.
After reading the forum this morning...I feel like going long the Q's. With leverage. Closet bulls...ugh. I don't have the time for this...I'll be back after 3750 is cracked.
Today's action? I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary.
I expect a much larger fight at the swing point(^GSPC, as mentioned...the general area of 3750).
Instability, aka volatility...should increase as we move forward.
It's the signature(or precursor) of what I'm/we're waiting for...
Europe? Before winter falls? I believe there are a few chapters to this story not yet written.
One Step at a Time...
BTC: Using the standard measuring tool(for declines) I've been using for decades. BTC(and ETH) is still coming up with negative numbers. While I do see quite a bit of support in the 12's and a BTTB area just under...I don't see it stopping there.
Perhaps at 10k, it will give us another dose of "roundnumberitis"...and then blow right through?
Hmm...I wonder what the March 2020 low(MAGNET) was in Bitcoin?
Mid four digits...no longer seems to be out of the realm of possibility.
I don't know...6500(+650/-650) just has a nice ring to it, but 5,200...now that...that sounds perfect.
5,200 or bust? I'd still like to at least hope that bust has better odds.
Again...from my perspective. Bitcoin...is...only the introduction to financial servitude governed by the Fed(and the IRS).
TWTR: Despite any shenanigans...15.00 is the 'official' call. 45 is the KEY, above...safe, below...dead in the water. My thought...it wants to get volatile.
NVDA: This issue has already cracked the swing point on Volume...and leading the decline. From my perspective. 50 sounds about right.
^HUI: I don't want to help anyone who has interests other than those who would be bullish. I'm going to say, now...Is probably a good time to be watching closely here. Any inversions in trading patterns against the broad market complex or apparent crossing over into a trading range(185-215) are temporary. 150(for now) should contain any downside spike.
GLD: Watching 160. Will not comment any further. Action is imminent...
Full moon on the 10th, open window on the 11th going into the 12th. Patiently waiting for...It. It being the catalyst to "Jump the Creek" in all areas of interest.
Speaking of the 11th going into the 12th...I can remember not too many moons ago when the 21st was going into the 22nd(of September). The year was 2011. It was the day the goldbugs fell silent.
Although, the week before the silence fell...I'm pretty sure I had been called every name in the book. I believe "complete idiot" was a crowd favorite.
I'm just going to park this here as a personal remembrance of that very day...
My stump speech was entitled, "The 610 to Nowhere".
Hey...how's the ^XOI holding up? Is it still north of 1610, er, uh...1600?
SPX: Here is an updated copy of the "Canary in the Coal Mine" chart. From my perspective...once 3750 falls in the ^GSPC...then the decline BEGINS. Until then, you're still in the topping formation from the January 4th peak.
Here is a convenient copy of the Twin Peaks Formation Reference Chart.
Along with the updated Canary in the Coal Mine chart....here are two Companion Charts that take a closer look at PYPL and NFLX against the decline from the January peak in both the ^DJI and ^GSPC.
Companion Chart 1a - ^DJI vs PYPL
Companion Chart 1b - ^GSPC vs NFLX
Finally...I'll post these two charts as "Food for Thought". More on both will be coming later...
This bears watching...
GLD: No comment other than watching 160. Although, from my own perspective...At this moment, I do believe the shares are taking it on the chin disproportionately(aka, leading the decline).
Patiently waiting for...It.
It would be irresponsible for me not to mention...
In light of fxfox's "This is It" video from the other day and considering where we are in the 2008 vs. 2022 pattern in the SPX...Lehman fell on September 15th, 2008.
Now...I personally don't like the saying "History never repeats, but it sure does rhyme" even though I have used it on occasion. I've done this only because everyone is familiar with the implication.
In my own terms....I use the word 'echo'.
"An echo from the past".
With all of that said...
In regards to history and my own view of the patterning structure of the SPX in 2008 vs. today here in September of 2022. We are on the edge of the Lehman incident...and that is why I'm watching for "It".
I'm expecting an echo from the past...
As a gentleman...this is my way of saying it might be time to - strap in.
Probably the most active month I've seen in several years.
I'm just going to give it to you straight out of my own notes.
Starting off September with the 1st into the 2nd. The 1st being the mid-point in the 40 day beginning on August 12th(224)(+4/-4)(+10/+20), then the night of the 4th going into the 5th. The full moon is on the 10th and a window opens the 11th and closes on the 12th. 14th(fades into the 15th). 21st into the 22nd and again on the 24th(and strengthens into the 25th). On Sunday the 25th you have a new moon and the beginning of Rosh HaShanah until the 27th.
I saw you're post from last evening Jimi. As mentioned...I prefer left field, but I'm not ruling anything out.
Global instability should accelerate...
Yesterday gave us the edge of the creek within all areas of interest. Next, is to just watch for these issues to "jump the creek"(or reject the jump) and adjust accordingly.
Although...with one small caveat.
Always be watchful for short-term inversions/deceptions along the path.
Currently...I'm seeing nothing out of the ordinary.
Passing back through...
your comments from the end of page 2?
Agree, Agree, and Agree.
I'm still calling for an eventual landing in the low 2's. I've made this clear. Although...I can't be bold with the call until I see how we handle 3250.
As I've outlined from the peak. My strategy is 2,24(x) to 2,25(x) or bust.
If I'm off by a smidgeon...it's a rounding error.
At the close...
Everyone got to keep their doji except my poor little hooey.
The ^HUI. I know many of my fellow goldbugs are stubborn and probably attempting to hold through this massacre. These asshats are handing it to 'em with zero mercy.
Well. What goes around comes around...
Before I head out...
I want to quickly mention this.
To me...the most important chart to be watching is the ^XOI.
I don't even know why...I just have an inkling that something is afoot.
Agreed...but my guy(Tom) tells me the trading desks were parroting 3900 to anyone who would listen as the "last line in the sand".
My comment at the top of this page is with that in mind...
For those who don't read charts...I've added a couple of lines to "A Fractal within a Fractal" to hopefully make understanding what I'm saying more simple.
At noon here...I'm seeing doji's everywhere on the Daily. Except in the ^HUI.
I'm continuing to watch this area in the GLD with great interest. The SLV(and the ^HUI) has already fallen.
I'm going to sit here and watch the strength of the defense of this area...and wait for "It".
It...being the catalyst.
To further expand on my thoughts about the SPX mirroring Russia...
If you'll recall my prior chart from August 20th, "A Fractal within a Fractal" I mentioned 3250...
I'm going to add this thought...while it's incomplete and obscure - at the moment. The charts will become clearer as the market unfolds.
This chart was tantamount in coming up with my forward looking analysis...Read through the mental gymnastics. THIS...is ART.
Here is a convenient copy of "A Fractal within a Fractal".
I personally don't give a damn about 3900, look at the ^IXIC(in the chart above)...the light resistance is right there in the chart. In my mind...it's already fallen. Personally speaking...I'm watching 3750. Why? Because when it cracks...I'll know were just over 1/2 way to an intermediate term target.
As I've already stated, when 4160 fell...the door to 3750 opened.
I'll stand(or fall) by that..