The specific reason why I mentioned 3600(repeatedly) is because I consider a low below this area to be a "walk-away from 2008". Frankly speaking...I didn't want to see this for several reasons. I'll post a chart later on this subject when it's not so...timely. Just remember 3600 and 3900, the chart will fill in the blanks as to why I've been adamant on the topic.
Tomorrow, October 1st is Mid-Cycle...
As we go into the first, we're midway through the 30-day cycle that started on the 16th. From my perspective...it's valid until it isn't. This is why I'm just watching and waiting...
In this chart, what it appears I'm saying here...is actually what I'm watching and yes, what I'm implying is the decline from August 16 is nothing more than the inverse...of the advance from June 16. a 4-month cycle.
All of this should be resolved soon. Until it is...nothing to do but watch.
If we do follow the 3500 decline path...I'd like to see a nice positive reaction into the 3720-3750 region....and then 3250. This will fulfill the 1000 point SPX decline I detailed before this nonsense started. It's all outlined in one of my prior charts...
At 3250...the rest period starts. "1/2 of the FIRST decline will then be complete".
Like I said when we first arrived at the swing point. When you sit just above the swing just like you're doing now...you're building cause to break through.
That's where the two rules come in:
1) One day does not a new trend make, I'll judge today...by what I see tomorrow.
2) Volume at the break(or Volume at the turn.).
"Global" intervention? Eventually. The Fed is my concern.
From my perspective.
Eventually. Isn't all that far away. This chart will age well.
The misstep is coming.
Everyone will be happy about those "green shoots" that are planted...I"m going to be worried. Very worried.
Although, to understand why I've said this, you'd need to understand my psychological make-up...
"From the days of yore...I'm nothing more than a watchman on the wall with a good set of eyes."
The only winners? Oh....that call is coming.
I can already SEE the horde of Banner Flags poking over the horizon.
Good afternoon fxfox...
I'd personally prefer they don't.
I didn't call our current support just above 3600 the battle of the dopamine(liquidity) dripsters for nothing.
The whole world is addicted to the sweet nectar(of free money).
England's intervention was the first response as even a notion was made for intention to cross 3600.
I believe the cry will only be louder if you attempt to do it again. As far as I can tell, there are brush fires everywhere.
I'll say it again. As far as I'm concerned....3600 is the line in the sand.
3500 will yield the same decline possibility(MAGNET), BUT in the "business as usual" format.
Does our current economic situation yield feelings of..."business as usual" to you?
As I'm sitting here...I'm personally hoping this is a retest and rejection. I can see the alternative quite clear from my vantage point...and I don't really want to go down that road.
For me...it's never the destination that concerns me...It's how you get to that destination.
That's where my interest lies.
"One day does not a new trend make."
"I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow."
The broad markets...
Despite the Volume coming in yesterday, it still looked like a 4th wave to me. I believe were in the final stab to the downside here...just patiently waiting for completion.
At this point...I believe it's best to just sit back and let the market give us...the rest of the story.
Although...like I've already stated...the line in the sand against the dopamine(liquidity) dripsters is 3600. The first attempt(to penetrate) yielded action out of Britain. I hear the next stage is something akin to delirium...
I'm watching 3600 with great interest...
On my end...just taking it easy.
Not much else to say...attempting to take it as easy as possible. I had a desk temporarily installed in my bedroom next to my bed...so I can literally fall out of bed...and into a desk.
I'm taking it...that...easy.
I concur with Doc's overall sentiment, although...I can't speak to the Fed part. I usually just pretend they don't exist and for some reason that has always worked for me. That is what I consider to be "the ART of Positive Thinking". If enough people would try the same approach, perhaps together we could "visualize them out of existence". Smile.
Cash is king - for now. Although...from the peak...short 'em if you've got 'em is my own underlying theme. Short profits should be used to...stack cash...for the opportunities ahead. If you can't short worth a damn...SH(and hold).
Bonds? The TLT eh? I'll add this chart as a quick reference...
If I was to gaze into my crystal ball...It's hazy...and that could be because I don't have enough history on this issue to make a more decisive call, or it could just be the blurred vision, the brain fog or perhaps the percodan?
Here goes nothing...
You're really in no man's land until 90. Although, I'd personally like to see a reaction in here(anywhere is fine as long as it is "around" 100) on the TLT. Then...a rally to 120 is what the textbook would call for. Usually an "a,b,c up" or 3 wave advance...where it should stutter. If that IS the case...stay tuned for part two where we talk about new all time lows.
If it just continues to meander down to 90(where there is longer term support)? Not a bottom I'd buy. Doesn't feel right...
If you've noticed...after we popped the KEY at 27 on the UUP I stopped commenting on the dollar.
In markets that are clearly showing "bubble activity", I prefer not to comment. In the past...I usually just walk away entirely, but I think the dollar is a special case...otherwise, I wouldn't mention it at all. For myself...I only have one major rule. I don't do bubbles. Why? 1) I don't need to. and 2) As we peak...I like my head clear(and objective), that's simply not possible in a bubble.
In all markets...I prefer to take a nice chunk out of the middle and leave the ends to the experts.
With that said...
The UUP is reminding me more and more of the SLV back in 2011(late 2010...wink, wink). As mentioned...not a fan of bubbles and I don't want to comment on something that would help anti-goldbug investors. So...I'm just going to say this.
I'm watching 28(and change) on any reaction.
If 28(and change) holds...to me...that would mean the FED isn't showing weakness/signs of a pivot and this bodes well for the secondary leg. IF it doesn't hold....the next leg in the UUP? Well...let's see what happens on the reaction(rest area) and I'll give it to you blow by blow until the next leg starts. Then...I'd prefer to just fall silent on the dollar.
No need to speak up when you know a "call in gold...is a call on the dollar".
Psst...think of this as a small fractal...showing you the bigger picture and you'll be close to my true thoughts on the subject of...the dollar. Think.
I said I'd be here when the SPX crosses the swing point...
So, it turns out I just needed stronger drugs. Smile.
Just glad to be back home, but frankly I feel like, well...one step north of death. I've been through the ringer and I'm going to just lay up and take it easy like I should have from the beginning.
Although....I wanted to comment on a couple of things...then I'm going to leave you boys to it. No choice really...
If it keeps on rainin'...levee's goin' to break...
Expect shenanigans from here to 3600 and then a war to ensue, but held back by 3900. 3600 to 3900 = War Zone.
Shortly...you will enter into a period of "confusion", and I believe NO TREND CHANGES WILL OCCUR DESPITE ALL EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY.
To elaborate. If/when markets look like bottoms and complete reversals...sure, they are bottoms, but the issues of interest(just as I'm showing you in UUP below) HAVE NOT PEAKED. They're entering they're respective "rest periods"(always remember, 1x...rest period...1x) with a whole 'nother leg of the decline coming...and soon. Understand?
After the rest period...In most sectors(aka: ANYTHING not tech) I'm expecting a minimum of 2:1 market compression which equates to...a financial contagion/crash..that should only be halted by a...PIVOT.
Of course...if you bust through 3600 down to 3500? Well, everything I've just said is delayed until you nestle yourself into the BTTB area(at 3250). Then...see above. Same story...rinse and repeat.
Although...then no crash will be forthcoming...just business as usual.
Yes. I'm repeating Scenario A and B because 3600 is make it...or...break it.
Do I know which one is going to happen? I can recall the old biblical saying....a double-minded man is unstable in all his ways.
Well...I have to agree.
While I do favor the 3600 holds approach...I simply do not know.
I'm watching with keen interest, but like I said in my initial post on this very topic. It doesn't really matter at the end of the day. The outcome is still the same and for me that is defined as:
The MAGNET at 2,24(x) to 2,25(x) on the SPX.
I'm going to leave you with this...
The chart on the left is a chart of the ^XOI index as it peaked on June 8th...the day I started screaming crash in oil/natural gas.
In that chart, at the dead center of the pattern, you have a Window on March 11th. Now...when viewing UUP on the right, you have another Window(on June 19th, the middle of a long weekend...June 17-21)). I'll ask...how many days from March 11th to June 19th? Ok...Now...how many days from June 19th to today September 27th?
You're in the middle of a Window(that closes midnight September 30th).
Take care everyone...
"The Amazing Stoolskin"
Thanks for the chuckle Doc...I needed it. Smile.
Good afternoon ph...
(sometimes 4.50) was a typo. It should have read (sometimes 7.50)...it's been corrected.
A few months back I mentioned a pearl of wisdom that I passed along to a former protege(circa 2008). A couple of months later I followed up with this chart to conclude the story. .
Here it is...
Can you Believe it...Now? Part II - August 20, 2022.
Have a good weekend...
Anyone, who knows the market KNOWS It's the late 60's period leading, no, no, no...we have high inflation...it HAS to be the late 70's! Both of you are wrong, I was there in '73...we're headed over a cliff, I can feel it! I'm telling you....it just seems right! You might have a point or two, but I don't think so...it feels reminiscent of that period right before '87. Bullshit! I can still remember the mild recession in 1990...this feels exactly the same. Bah, If you were actually around in '90, you'd understand today is no different than as we came out in '91. The recession ended right before the bull market started! We are headed...for. the. moon. gentlemen.
Aye. Aye. Aye. Everywhere I turn....I see people commenting about this topic.
I'll toss my hat into the ring...
While I've shown you through my charts that our current period is reminiscent of the 2008 decline...it's not what I've been watching closely.
I've taught since 2009 what we'll be facing in the future(which just so happens to now be the present), but nobody wanted to hear/see these types of arguments during a period of ease. So...I just tucked the lesson away.
The three charts below represent those old ideas...
I'm fully prepared to give mea culpas when I'm wrong.
This time...I want to be wrong.
Think I'll just park this right here.
Keep making those solar panel's fellas!
I believe one of my first comments on this forum had to do with metals and oil. I said the oil price during the pandemic should be a rather decent arbiter of what to expect in the PAPER price of silver.
I no longer own businesses because of two factors. I have no need for one...and they're too time consuming. Like a child who refuses to grow up. Although...in the metals business(of which I have a multi generational background in farming, metals AND fabrication)...I still have many friends.
Some of those friends are involved in the precious metals and they've been repeating the same words you now just penned. These are seasoned men with a minimum of 50 years experience each(I was actually sitting on the knees of several of these men during the 70's run)...and...they've done nothing but repeat to me these same words for what feels like...going on years. One gentlemen who I trust with my life, he is in his 90's and his collections would rival anyone on this planet. His complaint as of late has been. TCG...."The good stuff is tucked away and I don't see it coming loose anytime soon".
Sooner...or probably later(too late for most) it will all come together into the perfect storm.
Although...if we do get ourselves too far into a financial contagion...it might alter the dynamic(aka: the point of entry). This is why, you'll hear me say. Cash is king - for now(AND in demand, my bonds guy says shortages too!). You have to have SOME cash available to buy from those who are coughing up their assets(into the streets). Please recall...I hail from the land of Buffett. "We always have cash...if you're in distress." Do you understand me? I told my own past students to short the market...and raise cash while continuing to DCA into the metals(and miners, not yet though, but start testing the water AFTER the distress period we are in now. I personally prefer the Royalty model) on weakness using the strategies I taught them.
I believe I've said this before, but it does bear repeating ph. I'm here to comment only because I like people and I want to see everyone do well, but ESPECIALLY the blue collar worker or the guy who's trying to feed his family.
That is why I'm spending my time commenting. No other reason. Period.
I'm going to say it again...If you're not a millionaire, or since this is 2022. If you don't have more than 10 million...socking away the silver metal hand over fist, seems...more than reasonable. Afterall...the premium on sealed boxes isn't getting any smaller. Although...the lower your cost basis, the higher your eventual multiple. Hence...my repeated call for...patience. Also, it must be said. Let the rich guys play in paper. A steady diet of raising Cash and DCA into the metals(until opportunities arise in shares) should suffice even the least patient individuals among us. I'll say it again. Patience. Pays.
I know guys like to toss numbers around to sound important and knowledgeable. I don't like to do that...unless I thoroughly understand the argument "before" I set my feet down that path. I don't open my mouth until I feel reasonably certain of being correct because I always hold myself publicly accountable for every call I make. I'm the type of person who is harder on himself than anyone else could be. Do you understand this?
I assure you I'm not perfect...not even close, but I also don't need to retract my statements on a regular basis.
Because I weigh my words carefully.
With that said...
"I'm fairly certain we'll see 150 to 160 in silver and depending on how it is obtained...that may or may not be the top. At this time...I do not know - for certain. I'll need to see at least the first stage of the advance before I can make an exact determination."
I'll stand on that.
Now...how about gold? I use a different model for gold and I cannot come up with anything more than a guess until I see this bottom. Once we've bottomed, you'll see me repeatedly mentioning a target objective...and then(again) refining that objective until(and through) the first advance.
By the time of the 3rd wave in both....I'll be firing on all cylinders.
Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9(sometimes 7.50), or 4.
I've already made my guess, now...I'll just let the "pattern" in the ^HUI define my thoughts going forward vs telling the market what to do with my own opinion.
jimi...thanks for the well wishes. Not out of the woods yet, sore as hell...will comment as I can.
Everyone...While I haven't been able to talk about "measuring from the center to the outside" as much as I'd like. I would now like you to go back to my chart that I posted today(and ph quoted) and take another look at the ^HUI. See how it encircles itself around 200? You see that swing point we just took out today? Let's call that a "Head". Now...look up to the top of the range back at 325? Now look back at the head and then back to the top, 125? Then consider my words from the last few days? Think it all over. Let's watch this unfold...together.
You do know...when they park it above the swing point(^GSPC), they plan to crack it through hard right?
Good afternoon gentlemen...
Everything's going well...a bit of an infection they're trying to clear up. I'll leave the other details out...
I reviewed the thread since I left. Two points.
1) Jimi...Even I'm surprised the forecast accelerated in the fashion we've witnessed thus far from 3900.
2) Bears...and yachts. You know...I'm in the market for a yacht right? I have my guy in Jacksonville right now hunting down a crew. I'll do my best not to take offense at the yacht comment.
Although, to toss in my .02. Bears don't own yachts(yet), because they only buy them at deep discount.
At least...that is what I will do.
See you in a couple/few weeks.
EDIT: Doc...after viewing your video....I'd love to trade places. Actually right now would be ideal. 😀.
oh...and...uh...I'll just park this right here.
This one's going to take awhile. I only have one more(I believe). Then...I may just be free. There's also a "laparoscopy" option for that one I believe.
I'm not sure...but when I just scrolled down to post...I could have swore I just saw 3800 fall? Perhaps 3750 is in view? Please remember the window closes midnight tomorrow night....
I remember a few moons back when I was scouting locations for a home base(on the coast) and I walked up to one of the windows overlooking the ocean and had that strange sensation of falling over a cliff.
Now...I know how the market feels.
"Events(in this life) are nothing more than Fractals Fractured(Staggered) by the Nature of Time."
At the end of the day...I am nothing more than a simple teacher.
I'm going to ask you for a favor here. At the end of the day I'm only happy when I'm teaching, so please...allow me to toss on my instructor's cap and step on the soapbox for perhaps...a few moments in time. What is required of you? Nothing...if you're not interested, then move along. If you are interested in actually learning something?
Then, by all means...step right up, don't be shy.
Here we go...
If you would please just accept what I'm saying below as a gift and do your due diligence to understand more and more as you go forward, I'd be appreciative....Thanks.
This is IT.
If you look back to my initial post this afternoon, I made my current position quite clear.
What I'm going to simply ask you to do is this...:
Think over the comment I made. "150-225 will contain the ^HUI"....give it serious thought.
What I'm teaching here is complex, but not out of the grasp of anyone present. None of us are limited by any means...we limit ourselves!
Now, as you think this over...
Let me whisper this in your ear. You know the range(150 to 225)? Now?
What is 150 times 4? What is 225 times 4?
This..is the basis of compression AS IT RELATES TO ALL MARKETS.
Ok...You lost me, why does any of this matter?
You have magnified the range of the expression by the factored compression(4x) and now...just simply add 3000 to each outcome.
Can you now SEE why I said 3750 is the Pivot Marker(1/2 way point) and can you now SEE something else?
In the mind of The CoinGuy...2,24(x) to 2,25(x) on the SPX can simply be viewed as...75. In. The. ^HUI.
This. Is. CoinGuy 101: Market Manipulation for Dummies.
Since today will be my last day for some time...
I want to make it very clear where I stand AND what I firmly believe will be taking place while I'm gone...
I fully expect that volatility will escalate going forward(in particular...WILD swings AFTER 3600 is touched). This is NOT the time to be asleep at the wheel, as you fall away from 3900...you're now in the thick of it. The dopamine drip(free liquidity) for the bulls(and most "mainstream/retail" bears are still closet bulls) is going to become tighter and tighter until the fever takes over and the bulls lose their sanity.
Afterall...I was never waiting on the bears(to stand up). I was...and still am...waiting on the bulls to become bears(and like I said from the very beginning...by that time...I'll be long gone.). Rinse and Repeat...
3900 to 3600 is the War Zone...
As I've already mentioned...the fight was never at 3900. From my perspective this was the outward boundary(or KEY) to the lower realms. Once penetrated...3750 will fall as well...it is 3600 where the gloves will come off.
Give us Liquidity...or Give us Death!
Below 3600 is where the Bulls(who now are whining like girly bears) start to take on serious water and will further strengthen their collective cry. PIVOT. Please PIVOT.
As the screams reach a feverish pitch...
Help will eventually arrive...at the cost...of the MIS-STEP.
No worries...I came prepared for a long-term battle and the Captain of this ship doesn't take prisoners...
All walk the plank...One step at a time.
225 to 150 will contain the ^HUI until I mention something else...
Feel free to quote me on this.
"In Gold. From here...bounces do NOT equal a trend change, they equal nefarious deception." --The CoinGuy
Bottoms are my specialty...we're not even close.
Drip. Drip. Drip. I said this before it started. Repeatedly.
I'm actually mad as hell about all of this. I love goldbugs.
The best revenge I can think of...is to stay around and start dropping 'Golden Eggs' from the day of the bottom to the very day of the top.
I have to admit...I am mulling this over.
The Gold Bugs will have their day in the sun.
In fact....if you listen carefully....you can almost HEAR it, can't you? Oh,,,it's coming,,,and it's coming very soon.
I not only can hear it...I can SEE it. NOW!
You know the ol' saying...
If they can't crack it down...they're going to crack it up.
I only care about two things...Volume and 2nd Day Confirmation.
Ideally...I'd like to see an explosion back through 3900...and then a grand failure the very next day.
Surgery on Thursday.
That IS precisely what I said.
"This kind of volume won't do the job".
Although I will edit my original comment to:
"The kind of volume I witnessed today will not do the job". If that will make my opinion more clear?
It is today's volume that led me to follow-up with this:
"Any. Decisive. Move. from this day forward(through the end of the month) WILL NEED Volume and second day confirmation."
In short...one day wonders on light volume ain't fooling no one.
Since I've got a few minutes. I have perused through my archives...and I want to mention something.
After 3750 falls...
I've discussed ad nauseum the "textbook" version of what I'd like to see transpire. A decline to 3250 where the market would rest for a time(IE: ^IXIC at 11k)...and then continue the decline to the MAGNET at 2240-2250. We'll call this...Scenario A.
There is a second scenario, no less valid(for now)...where the decline will pause at 3600 and make several hard retests of 3750(perhaps even a spike back to where we are today?). We'll call this...Scenario B.
From what I'm viewing here..."3600 IS the dividing line". 3600 and above, Scenario B. Below? Each point closer to 3500 strengthens the Scenario A argument. 3500 is the KEY(to scenario A).
Simply put. Scenario B, 3600. Scenario A, 3500.
So...why the hubbub about a "Scenario B" anyway? That my friends...will be our "marker" for determining the lead up to a crash. From The CoinGuy's perspective...IF 3600 holds? There is a very high risk of a crash that quickly escalates into an international contagion. 3500? Business as usual.
At the end of the day...the only difference(net outcome) is not in the pattern(or distortion thereof), not in the price...but in time(to completion).
I'll be expanding on this thought as we go forward...
That crack below 3900 on Friday ripped the cork off a 400 pt SPX Genie bottle. I'd imagine...they're scrambling to re-seal. The kind of volume I witnessed today will not do the job(updated!).
Any. Decisive. Move. from this day forward(through the end of the month) WILL NEED Volume and second day confirmation.
Let me repeat my old saying. "One day does not a new trend make".
I will mention...in 2008. At this very moment in time...the cycle inverted and marked the declines 1/2 way point(also called a...Pivot Marker).
I can hear the whisper on the wind...ever so softly..."35 is the KEY to all markets".