Well. Hopefully tomorrow will tell us what we need to know.
It's about 9 hours from the close. I've gone ahead and reversed this chart on the horizontal axis and removed some of the noise. That way...you don't have to guess as much as to what the 'inverse' of a chart is supposed to look like.
I believe this should make it clear...
The implication is...well, we're in the process of finding out. One way...or another.
I've been viewing what's transpired over the last 24 hours as nothing more than a rest period in a high level consolidation...and then you have anywhere from an 80 to 120 point burst coming out the other side. If we head back into the gap...see my post above.
Using the live chart from this page as an example...against NFLX. Just think inverse...
I really started feeling better yesterday...and it's continuing today.
I read Doc's opener...
For me...I think if they can pierce 3720...it is possible they could get something going to the downside. I don't know...
What I do know is. If they do pierce the 3720 level they're going to trigger off the gap fill...and THAT would make me cautious. It is the sole reason I posted the updated chart yesterday afternoon.
One thing about breakaway gaps...they don't fill. A retest is fine...but if they fill...you've got a problem.
Not to mention...if you've noticed. These shorter terms bursts(September 6th through the 12th as an example.) net 200-220 points before the momentum begins to wane. I count 4 episodes of this behavior since the mid June low.
While I'm not ready to walkaway from what I'd like see and I'm sure you're tired of hearing me say it...3900. I'm still quite cautious here...I'm watching several other developments that could turn into something.
I'll pipe up if I feel it's necessary...
I'll just park this here.
The reaction at 3720...was interesting.
The candle from yesterday sealed the deal for me. I’ve gone ahead and updated the same chart again to represent the current daily chart in the SPX. I’ve added several gaps that have occurred as you come out of the turns. If you’ll recall, I said the decline...is nothing more than a mirror of the advance. I added a couple of gaps from each to further drive that point home. If you look closer you can find more.
For myself...I’m sitting here and doing what I’ve been doing for decades. I’m waiting...patiently. My eyes are on the 16th at the moment. Although, the 16th is a weekend day. So...the 14th and the 17th are what I will be watching(with emphasis on the 17th).
I'll repeat yesterdays theme...I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary here.
Best of Luck,
I remember them having trouble cracking through 3720 last week. Yesterday...they sliced through that area like a hot knife through butter. I'm watching to see how this area is handled on any reaction.
Back to my morning reading...today its a few pages out of 'The Book of Five Rings'.
TWTR: I have to comment only to tell you...I'd prefer not to. Smile.
It took a lawsuit, but Musk is picking up the company at full offer. I'll tell you...I think I'm just going to refrain from comment because I can't see any logic or reason as to what has transpired here.
For this call, I'll grade myself a D-. I thought my original call was correct. While the deal appeared to fall apart, it was only delayed. Therefore...I was wrong. I'll try to be more careful next time.
"There's nothing new, different, unusual, or particularly notable in this rally. Absolutely nothing."
One day does not a new trend make...but two days on volume?
Well. There you go.
So...what's going on here?
Feels just like another early September barn burner to me. We all know the number to be watching here...and that is what I'm patiently waiting on. Hell, in two days...you're 2/3rds of the way there?
I'm also...watching the right side of my scale. The ^HUI is running into a light amount of congestion right in here, but frankly...I'd like to see it pierce 225.
At the end of the day...when it rolls over.
I expect all markets to follow.
When I watched your video on the Canopy hoist, it reminded of a gentlemen from Alliance, NE. Here...the ground pounders are going 'into' the ground with more and more frequency.
Nebraska Stories | Greenhouse in the Snow
fxfox...I agree...and frankly any other method...well, you have to start taking time into consideration. Is it...worth the time? I don't think so. Unless...as you mentioned, you're an insider, but there are risks with that as well. For myself...I think I just prefer to be an outsider - in all respects.
To that...I would only add. Those odds(and percentages, which are huge!) get even better if you learn the lesson from Jesse Livermore instead of having to learn it for yourself. It's the large trends...where the most money is made(at the least cost to your health).
I've always mentioned I retired in '95 at 27. Before...the ramp. Coming out of the recession in '91 I hit each turn with exacting precision. then I got long the Nasdaq and walked away at 4k(please remember...I don't do bubbles, I've explained why.).
To this day....the 12 to 18 month timeframe...I usually like to keep as a minimum. Not to mention...even if I see plenty more on the table...I always leave 10-20% for everyone else.
As you know...I like to repeat. So, I'll say it again...always target the big chunk in the middle. There never is any need to rush...or be the first one there.
The braggart types who talk that nonsense end up blowing up their accounts. At least that is my experience. Being a johnny come lately...is a bonus from my viewpoint. Technically speaking. I personally like to see the first wave complete and the second wave retracement on light volume...as that starts to get long in the tooth....that's where I 'prefer' to take my shot.
I'm going to expand a bit here. In the mood to type I suppose....
Speaking of blowing up accounts...Your day isn't over if/when that happens to you...it's just beginning. I personally think THAT is what opens the door to becoming an excellent trader. The only students that listened...were those who had broken an account or two. The rest...arrogance grew...until they faded away. Some wealthy. a few...very wealthy. Some ended up as dishwashers, cooks...used car salesman. The only difference. One gave up at the break...one picked themselves up by the bootstraps...and trodded on. They didn't give up.
I don't care how bleak it looks. One thing about the market. There's another train coming along...whoops, you just missed it. No worries...there'll be another in a few...whoops...you just missed another one.
You get the idea...
A timely word(or chart) can turn the story around in the blink of an eye.
Never give up is the moral of the story. Don't be afraid to speak up if you blow something up either. Most guys...well, from viewing posts for the better part of...hell, I don't know how many years. I've been around the internet since the beginning. At any rate. I don't see many posters who confess losses.
What I don't think they realize...if they had any interest in helping someone else...it would be right there at the moment of failure where they could pass along pearls(of wisdom) to everyone around them.
By helping others...you help yourself.
As I mentioned in my first post of the day...The implication outlined in this chart does not receive the CoinGuy's "Stamp of Approval"...yet...but as long as the real "line in the sand" holds. I'm not foolish enough to try to discount it either...
Now. With that said...
I'm not the fence sitting type...or the waiting to see which way the wind blows type either.
Right or wrong...I prefer the direct approach and where I come from....we don't beat around the bush about it either.
So...In case I haven't made myself clear with all of this speculating...
I'd like to see 3600 hold.
Why? In my own work...I'm prepared to give better analysis going forward if that is the case. Because...it IS what I prepared for.
If It turns out to be wrong...I can still wing it well enough to make most of the pros look foolish.
Silver is looking quite strong...
SLV, watching 20.50.
GLD, 160...if it breeches 160(AND holds it.)...while I consider that to be unlikely, you can't rule out a retest of the KEY at 170 if that is the case.
^HUI 225...perhaps the KEY at 235. Again...doesn't seem likely.
Do I think the low is in?
Picking over somebody else's carcass(aka: leftovers)...well, it just doesn't seem to be too appealing. Doesn't mean I wouldn't do it if I saw a few bucks just lying around...but...I'd prefer my own kill.
Is 3600 holding or is this a one-day wonder?
Nice reversal(thus far) on the SPX...
Looks like I can't tuck this chart into the archives quite yet(and it's been updated to reflect Friday and Today's candle). As long as it confirms, I consider this a valid mid-cycle turn. October 1st is mid-cycle.
Which, as you know...means the door is not closed to 2008 and...until 3500 is breeched, I'll stand by that. After all, the decline from Friday fulfills all requirements for a finished fifth wave. Just a carryover(truncated fifth wave), but that is all that's needed.If it doesn't confirm?
it's Business as usual.
A rally to back thru 3750 and...well, you know. Of course that is speculation until we see follow-thru.
As I sit here at this moment...I'm more than inclined to give the SPX a little leeway when I take what I'm seeing in the TLT and the UUP into consideration. Not to mention...the metals.
At the end of the day though. I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow. One day does not a new trend make.
As I've mentioned...the 2008 pattern is my preferred pattern during this decline. IF we had follow-thru(to the downside) from Friday...I was ready to walk away from that plan completely as soon as today.
If you look above on this page, you'll see I edited the post I penned last evening. It was my lead-in to a new chart series for silver and the ^HUI. I have nothing on gold at this time because it would reveal too many of my thoughts...and I'm not going to help anyone that would be short the metal(or the stocks). After I feel this topic I'm about to discuss with fxfox is exhausted...I'll pick that back up. No worries...plenty of time.
I don't believe fxfox realized at the time the importance of the question he was asking...and anyone(and I mean anyone) who asks a sincere question from me...gets a complete answer. I was not attempting to rebuff in my response....just delay... because I wanted to give the question my full consideration.
Although...for the purposes of this illustration...I'd ask that you perhaps take a closer look at the SPX and call it 4750? After a good long glance...I feel you'll agree.
When the market minions were crying that "3900 is the line in the sand", what did I say? 3900 is of no consequence...it's 3750(then 3600) we should be watching AND even I was amazed at how fast it fell. Going back a little further...the low we made in mid June? Even before we rallied...I said 4160 would be the entrance to the band at 4250. Anything above...they will not be able to hold? Well...how many times did they struggle at 4160? I lost count. Did they hold 4250? No.
Now...we're in the battle at 3600. I'll reiterate for those who haven't had the benefit of reading the older posts...that the fall of 3600...I feel is the close to 2008. Once past this area...the likelihood of cruising this ship on down to 3250 is highly likely and as I've already said...3500 closes that argument once and for all.
So. Why 3250? I've mentioned many times I felt the "Back to the Breakout" area at 3250 in the SPX would be a nice parking spot since we're following 'one step behind' the Nasdaq. Seems logical. The Nasdaq has already parked at its respective "Back to the Breakout " area at 11k...has it not?
After the first 1x period is complete...and you obtain the "Back to the Breakout" area...you would then enter into a period of rest and...after a nice long rest period...you would then enter into yet another decline that would match the 1st leg.
I mentioned this 'generic" model based on what I was seeing in the leading issues(NFLX, PYPL as examples).
What we don't know is what is going to transpire at 3250.
I wanted to hold these cards close to my vest, but I think everyone who has an interest should be aware of certain possibilities....
Possibilities? Doc's comment yesterday was spot on. Normally in this situation...once the magnet has been touched and you've completed the bottoming pattern...a rally would ensue. After the rally completes...well. That is where my Greenspan Ramp comment comes into view.
Which leads me to...
The "Twin Peaks" Formation Reference Chart I posted on April 28th.
Take another look? Go on...take a real good look.
It's all there. 4,250, 3,750....3,250.
These are my thoughts...
"From the peak at 4750, you've done nothing more in the SPX than PARTIALLY fulfill the first leg down INTO 3250 from the topping pattern of the 2000 Nasdaq Crash."
The call for patience..
Going forward...I am patiently waiting on 3250. It's at 3250 where I believe we'll get a 'very solid' picture of what this market has in mind going forward. A continuation...to the MAGNET. Or perhaps a "Twin Peaks" variation?
Since you're a fan of monthly charts...I drew this up very quickly. It's a small montage of the current monthly chart in the Dow...and a snippit from "Through the Looking Glass".
I'm going to post this without commentary other than to say the 60 min chart is "mirroring a fractal".
I want to leave you with two questions regarding this 60 minute chart.
1) Does it appear as though the decline made it to the magnet? If it didn't...about where did the decline stop?
2) The fractal is from the past...but could it also be from the future? Really wrestle with this. Give it time.
You know what I'm thinking...I'm thinking we oughta give up. Leave the whole outfit...everything behind. Go back to civilization.
I apologize to my fellow goldbugs...
I've decided to EDIT this post in favor of the discussion I just added below.
I'll pick up the discussion on all things gold, silver and the ^HUI as soon as that dialog is complete.
Because I feel the importance of the discussion I've added...cannot wait.
Gentlemen...you've been trodding on riches...for years.
Everything...in its own time.
The Nutty Old Man
Not exactly the farming I'm used to here in the midwest Jimi...but I do appreciate the stories.
As I've mentioned...I'm a fifth generation Nebraskan.
Back in the 1960's....half of our family up and left Nebraska completely. They now reside all over California.
I've flown out there many times. Even temporarily worked for one relative for a six month stint to help him keep his doors open. My relatives(and their friends) have always been very generous(and kind) people.
When I travel out there...it's hard to leave.
That's not a bad practice...
The monthly chart will never lie to you.
I've come up with a million scenarios in my head when looking at the daily...then I go to the weekly and those scenarios I've dreamt up in my mind start to fall apart. The monthly....usually drives it all home.
The monthly chart is like a good instructor looking over your shoulder.
The Aug candle in AAPL is now confirmed as we close Sep.
In this respect...what's true in the daily is true in the monthly.
"I will judge what I see this month, by the next month to follow..."
Although...that decline from the August 14 candle peak in the weekly?
Well...it's beautiful...but you might want to watch for support points from 130 to 140.
You have me on these movie quotes. I avoid modern movies. I have an archive of movies from 1928 to 1952 that is so large, well...trust me...the collection is extensive by any measure and I prefer to just watch the old stuff.
Although, Tom(Tom is my right hand man) got me a DVD of some Pi movie over a decade ago. Said the guy in it reminded him of me...that is until I watched the thing. The guy was a hot mess. I walked away wanting to either fire him or take a good long look in the mirror. I still haven't decided...
No more financial movies...they scare me.
My favorite movie is uh...let me see. I'd probably pick a Tyrone Powers movie for a top pick. Uh...While I loved 'Razor's Edge' because I'm also a fan of Gene Tierney(She's absolutely scary in "Leave Her to Heaven" and Clifton Webb IS an all time favorite of mine.), and I believe 'This Above All' was superb because of the ever beautiful Joan Fontaine...I'd have to go with...Nightmare Alley and Nightmare Alley would just barely edge out Laura. If my hand was forced...I'd have to say this is my top 5.
1) Nightmare Alley and/or Laura
2) The Razor's Edge
3) The Red Shoes and/or This Above All
4) To Have and Have Not and/or Key Largo
5) Algiers and/or Casablanca.
Why do I put Algiers on the same level as Casablanca? Because of its simplicity.
I also apologize...I probably should have called this a top 10, but...the titles I list and/or....for me are just too close to call and any list without African Queen...or since I'm a goldbug at heart...no mention of "Treasures of the Sierra Madre" really isn't complete. Maybe...I'll sit and think about it for awhile and come up with a top 10 instead.
I'd imagine most of these are probably free on youtube.
Nightmare Alley is a must watch in my opinion.
I have a list of the top five tech companies I wish "would. just. go. away". You've nailed the top two with NVDA and AAPL. Never liked either of them. I'll give you one more....MSFT. The other two? Well...I may or may not have a financial interest. Smile.
My overall opinion of the top 5 entails nothing more than a dislike in the way they treat their customers.
My old friend(and neighbor) picked up a slug of AAPL(very late in the game), I preferred the old mantra...
"I don't invest in companies that I don't understand".
It was working for him...shareholders have been attempting to pressure him WHILE HE WAS RAISING CASH FOR A REASON!
I watch his issue...with great interest.
250K is my call.
I wanted to mention something. I've noticed several times you've referred to the "weeklies" or the "monthlies" chart. I wish more traders would give the longer term charts higher precedence...I do nothing "in a big way" until the daily, the weekly, and the monthly are all in agreement.
It's refreshing to see you mention these things....
"Echoes from the past are(designed by nature to be) symbolic trail markers that guide you forward to the future."
EDIT: The rest of the content in this post was edited out. It was intended for the folks of this forum only.
I'm pretty sure this room has the capacity to fit in a few more. I can remember the days when there were hundreds....
I think "Osso Buco Bob" has a nice ring to it. Happens to also be one of my favorite winter-time dishes.
You joined in 2009 and yesterday was your first post? A man of few words eh?
While I have the Canary chart out of its cage. I don't know...until l see some change...I'm still on this page.
I'm telling you...PYPL has paid me well. In many many ways...
I fear two things.
Weak hammers and parking the market over the weekend right at 3600. I'll lose sleep over trying to discern the intention of that move. I'd prefer it plows through or rejects...
Ever try to park an Aircraft Carrier into a tiny spot? I have...many times. It's not possible on your own...you have to have the tugboats come in and help.
Imagine trying to park the stock market into a tight "Back to the Breakout" area at 3250? It's a tight fit...
I think, for myself...I'd prefer to take such a large task one step at a time and "bring her in safely". Versus getting too far ahead of ourselves.
Drip. Drip. Drip.
I mentioned before and I'll reiterate now. I firmly believe this decline will chew traders up and spit them out quite easily...because of the sheer speed(of a tortoise).
Everyone is used to rush rush rush. Get rich...yesterday already! That is the exact opposite of what I'm believing is now taking place. There is no need to rush, this market is going to unfold at a snails pace...
One step at a time.
For the more impatient among us...I developed a chart or three that would let you peek into what I'm viewing as I look forward. I'll re-post "Canary in the Coal Mine" below.
Although...I thought I made it clear when I said I felt this wasn't a "One and Done like 2008", but maybe I didn't make myself clear enough. For this...I do apologize.
"I firmly believe this decline will not take months...but years".
At 2,24(x) to 2,25(x)....I believe the One is complete...but you're not Done. Not by a long shot.
In the coming months(hint: next year)...for a time...I will change directions and I'll be screaming(telegraphing) everything I'm doing and thinking along the way. Although...with delay and obfuscation to those who don't watch my work closely.
Why? That should be obvious. There is plenty(the whole world) who would work against your interests.
here ya go...