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The CoinGuy

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Everything posted by The CoinGuy

  1. No need to mention what I'm doing here... Hey...uh...how many days has it been since that suspiciously odd October 13th low? And...that is 1/2 of what? The ^IXIC is keying off the September 13th gap. Best, TCGotta run...
  2. Is it Friday yet? Had a few moments before I leave...just passing through to say hello. Quite the punch out of that channel Doc. Gold's snap off 1900...interesting. I expect the rest of the week to be littered with this type of behavior. At least I hope so. Personally speaking...I'm in the red, I'm in the black...back and forth, back and forth. Just waiting for blue skies...or a sucker punch. Smile. I reviewed all of the posts since Sunday before commenting... fxfox...you have me at a slight disadvantage...I eschew following short interest. SiP: Interesting Dollar chart and more interesting peak ...I believe if you take a good look between October 27th and December 5th of 2008, you'll see another top that has a familiar ring to it. While I don't agree with the patterned behavior in 'Porn 2'...you did touch on a nerve with what has been going around in my mind since last summer. I keep getting flash backs to trading the 2000 crash during this decline. The high peaks and low valleys of the decline thus far has been...well...has been slightly boring to be honest. A year in and were down what? 2500 to 3000 points in the DJI? Yawn... Last summer I mentioned that I felt we were still in the topping pattern. I still feel this is the case according to the 'Canary in the Coal Mine' chart. A quick revisit... It will take below 3600 to break out of the pattern. I remember the last time we were looking for some answers around a fed meeting...turned out to be a dud. This is one time I'm not hoping for a repeat. Best of luck to everyone... TCG
  3. I spent many posts dedicated to turns in the market. I repeatedly mentioned there's no reason to be in a rush...to get greedy and try to squeeze a full 100% out of a decline. "Just the chunk in the middle" is enough for anyone. I've always advocated being cautious, wait for confirmation...and make sure that the volume is there to confirm. Then why the hell would I attempt to scale into positions in a front run operation before a turn in the market? Does that make sense? Is that something you'd associate with The CoinGuy? I have one exception to my rule. The possibility of "Event risk". This. is why I'm doing what I'm doing. I'll add another quick and dirty chart...this time with the SPX and Russia! Russia! Russia! For those who have been with me from the beginning. Look over this chart...then look up how many days there are between the two dated peaks I've outlined. Yes..this is a perfect pattern match. Although, always remember...the longer the pattern takes to completion...the more detail given. Mull this over for a good long while. I plan on expounding on this over and over and over...until the reality of it sets in. The SPX will see 2,24(x). Until Friday... TCG
  4. SiP's Bear Porn chart inspired me to draw a quick and dirty comparison of my own. I wish there was more, but I'm really short on time right now...I'm trying to do six things at once and I'm watching my health as well. The market should tip its hand this week on all fronts...will try to stop in by Friday and see where everyone is at. SiP. Appreciate the charts you've been posting. Best, TCG
  5. A few comments on the markets and the metals... I spent a few hours Friday evening perusing through my charts. I feel quite comfortable in my positioning here. Above 4031 I started taking on a little water. Above 4100(on Volume), I will have to start scaling out of my positions and awaiting a better entry. If we do get a turn here...I’ll wait until I receive confirmation and probably toss a couple of more Frigates in the water, maybe even a Destroyer. At these turns you’re either spot on...or dead wrong. I’ve made the comment that I believe we’re barreling over a cliff into what will be viewed “shortly” as another Lehman style event...and that should complete the first leg down(of 5) of a crash...just as in 2008. So...what will change my mind? Only price action... Price action is precisely why I never argue about positioning…the market is the final arbiter, I’d prefer to just let the market do the talking. If you follow this rule...there is never a need to defend yourself...or your position. With that said. The pattern that helped me nail the 2022 highs in January, March, and August breaks above 4300 and I’ll be forced to change my tune – permanently. Every point above 4100…I’ll be viewing with suspicion. Remember the rule for turns. Be from Missouri. Make them show you the Volume and wait for confirmation. One day does not a new trend make... The metals? This lead up to the February 1st Fed Meeting is reminding me of the Spike in silver in 2021... SLV as far as I can tell has already rolled over, the GLD...well, the probe above 180 didn’t hold and the ^HUI is having trouble at 260...I think they’re both tired. Not to mention...I’m following along a pattern of behavior that has repeatedly been spot on for both issues...and I’m quite certain it’s not going to walk away from the pattern. Although...we shall see...and soon. In all markets...I expect everything to be resolved shortly after the Fed meeting this week. Major changes are afoot is my call and I’d imagine it will all be sorted by the close on Friday. If I’m wrong...I’ll speak up quickly. In closing...I will have more on this topic later, but as of now...I think it is worth mentioning that the strong advance of the GLD off it’s November 3rd bottom and the low in the ^HUI from September 26th change the dynamic of the pattern that I’ve been following. Essentially, just another variant in the same pattern but it does “bode well for where I do believe the low in Gold will be.” My full thoughts on the ^HUI. I know many believe the lows are already in. I’m sorry...I’m afraid I don’t see it that way. The ^HUI, if it has rolled(or rolls shortly) will head directly to new lows to drive this point home. I’d like to see 150 hold. For now. Please feel free to quote me on this next sentence. “After 150 holds, I expect a strong rally(even back to 260 is not out of the question.). Once this rally fails...and it will fail hard. The precious metals will collapse into a free fall.” As I’ve been stating since the peak back in 2011...I’d like to see the 2002 gap in the ^HUI from 76-80 filled...and when it is filled...I will call the bear market in gold & silver complete. Not a moment before. “At 130 in the GLD...I’ll have more to say.” All of this will transpire in 2023. Best Regards, The CoinGuy oh...and... No charts for now. One thing I wish I had more of right now is....Time.
  6. Nice video... "The stock market is not a science...it's an art." I've heard that somewhere before... Smile, TCG oh...and... probing back above 4031. I wish I could stay...have a long list of things to do. Best All...
  7. Doc... I'd consider a break out above 4100 to crack the 2008 pattern I've been following since January 2022. I'd be forced to join you... Best, TCG
  8. Over 4031 starts punching holes in my boat...I'll give it awhile to probe but I'm not hanging around long if there is volume to back it up. I'm coming off an excellent year....I'm not looking to give anything back. Oh...uh...Good morning gentlemen. TCG
  9. Viewing my 2008 Pattern Chart, yesterdays slight decline and the action so far this morning coincide with coming off the right peak on 9/02/08 into the Lehman event. The pattern for the last six months has been running just under a 2:1 ratio(in time). February should be interesting. That is my call. Perhaps the Fed can give us a gift of some sort. I like it when a trade starts out clanking coins...let's hope it continues. I now have a few expensive toys to pay for...which means I plan on extreme accuracy this year. If I have to pay for something with my own money....well, it'll be a first. I'm keeping my attitude positive so...so I won't even go there. Smile, TCG
  10. Not exactly back...just passing through, but I do appreciate the well wishes. Tremendously. I'm actually a severe introvert so it's better that I walk away when nothing is going on that is conducive to making a few trades. Gives me time to study and meditate...mull things over for awhile. I never like to be in a rush. That behavior is what consistently keeps the Coin coming into in my pockets. Yesterday was a doozy... Didn't know I'd be spending the rest of the day/night in the ER. Actually just got home 15 minutes ago. Things have been going well for months, and then out of the blue. High Fever, rapid heart rate...turned out to be an inflamed and infected diverticulitis. At least it isn't/wasn't worse. The majority of my problems from last year they were misdiagnosing because they couldn't figure out what was going on...and believe me I have the best medical team in the business. Turned out to be a couple of rotten teeth under some old caps in my mouth. So...if you're ever having mystery pains...that might be a place to look! My health is still hit/miss, but steadily improving overall. I haven't felt better in years! I will chalk it all up to "e-biking", my doctor recommended and I'm not kidding...it SERIOUSLY improved my numbers all across the board within a month of daily riding. I'll be moving to my new digs in the next week or two. Once settled, I might post a little more often...I never plan on totally leaving Capitalstool as long as I'm still breathing. I'd like to support Doc as best as I can. So, this might be another year of erratic posting, but like 2022...I plan on it being just as profitable. If not more so. From my perspective...for me...this year is easier to read. Oh we did alright last year especially after nailing the 3.29 high and the secondary decline coming off 8.16...but it got boring right at October 13th. I believe this is going to be the year of bottoms...and I'm ramping up my larger trading accounts to start studying longs. No...not for a secular style bull market...just a large/long bounce that plays into my favorite time frame....which is if you recall 18 months. Until then, net short. Although...you know my feelings toward the metals. I won't short these, or help others to do so. I'm back to watching and waiting and I'm going to be dipping in from time to time until 3250 is touched. Patience is again the order of the day. It will be hit... I'm personally just waiting for the announcement that brings this market sideways...I hope it's a doozy. Although, considering the world environment at this moment...I will mention I hope it isn't nuclear related. TCG oh...and... I'm actually dying to put the teacher hat on for awhile... I haven't drawn up a single chart since October, I feel the need to practice a little....you might see one or three charts pop up here sooner or later. All with our current situation in mind, plus a 2008 pattern update. It's gotten...interesting. Have you been watching the dates of reversals? Lot's of 13's to be watching. There's something there...maybe I'll discuss that a little.
  11. Good morning(Especially you Doc, haven't spoken in awhile...🙂)... Haven't held any positions since we covered the morning of the 13th of October. Considering the shenanigans of "a dozen or so" DJI stocks going into the election...haven't seen any reason to comment...until now. As of the close...I'm in. All in. I'll pass back through as we touch 3250. Best, TCG oh...and... Be careful in the metals. The bounce/retest has been solid...I didn't expect the ^HUI to get back over 225/235. I'm actually impressed, but they're rolling over here. Although, nothing is confirmed until the GLD is back below 160. UUP will turn, but a new high? I doubt it. A retest is probably not too much to ask though. I expect just above 30 "just as long as the key at 27 holds". I'm pretty sure it will. 27.17 should be max pain, but it looks like it's bottoming right here. There is solid support at the BTTB(Back to the Breakout) area here at 27.44. Wait and see I suppose... I've looked over my long term forecasts. I've made zero changes. SPX 224(x) to 225(x) will be touched. GLD...I'll comment at 130. I've also looked over my charts. 2008 is the still the dominant pattern. In the short term...as far as I'm concerned, you are on the road to a "Lehman" style event.
  12. I can't find my calculator...can someone remind of what 3840 divided by 2 is? Thanks. To "explode out of here", all you have to do is overcome(AND hold)...3840. Best, TCG
  13. Just an FYI... The Hang Seng Index has now crossed the 50% decline threshold from its February 17th(2.17) peak in 2021. It's still in mid-air... Best, TCG
  14. I'm going to post this one more time, then tuck it away in the archives... ^HUI 175.70 must hold...or, well. I'll just say this. In all markets..."when the next sign of strength arrives...a trader should respect the direction". If not...the hits will keep coming until the lesson is learned. Best, TCG
  15. The Nikkei is in a "Twin Peaks" topping formation. It's the SLV hybrid variety where you split the peak in two pieces...then analyze. A very common, but deadly pattern. As tight as this is wound, I'd imagine you're going to explode out the lower side once 26k is breached. From experience....no need to re-evaluate until 16k. The pattern is essentially complete...so it's coming very soon. Personally...I think it's already started. I used to follow(and trade) the Nikkei back in my younger days, although...it's been many moons and the popularity of the Nikkei died off in the mid 90's. Best, TCG oh...and... This is where I split the pattern. If you pull up the SLV 2011 topping pattern and do the same you'll know exactly where you are in the formation. The 3rd peak under the line of division is the death knell. I should mention...the whole world is in the same situation. I just had a flashback to a promise I made to Jimi...So...I'm going to add this chart quickly. Make note of the support at 26. Until...it wasn't...it will be the same at 26k.
  16. 50% retracement in the ^DJI? Complete. Since today is October 24th...I will mention this is the very day the ^HUI bottomed in 2008. TCG
  17. Good morning... When I penned yesterday that like in life you're not guaranteed another tomorrow, nor are you guaranteed another rally. I couldn't help but think of a post from a couple of weeks ago by fxfox as I was typing that out. fxfox had mentioned 2900 in the SPX and it just so happened that very morning I was looking over the 500 point H&S developing and I thought to myself...2900 seems about right here. At the time, which was October 15th...and I can't remember if I posted this chart or not. I had named the chart "fxfox WILL get his 2900". To me...if you can't break above this resistance right here at 3800, you're not going to see the tests of the above range...you're going down now. That is what was in my mind when I typed out my thoughts yesterday...and I wanted to make it known. I could very well be wrong, but something...to me...just doesn't feel right. Doc quoted Jimbo's post this morning. It's the words that are sitting there that are haunting me. I've already said it...the 13th felt artificial. Since that day...well, I've put my Missouri glasses on. If this rally has any strength behind it...you're gonna have to Show-Me. Here is the original chart. I found it in the Recycle Bin... Best, TCG
  18. As we touch 3800... Despite the distortions in the pattern....can you begin to SEE it? TCG oh...and... I believe Sunak got his start at GS...
  19. While I don't feel the "time" is appropriate for this chart series just yet...I do keep my promises. Not to mention...this pattern takes a while to grasp. The more time you have to comprehend what is actually taking place...I feel the more successful you'll be when it comes time to "pull the trigger". From this day forward...I will not let this topic rest. I'll be keeping this on the front burner on a nice slow simmer. I'll eke out a chart out here and there and then follow it up at the right "time" with a very strong conclusion. So..to kick this off I'm going to start with an old chart of mine. I developed this chart as we were heading into the peak at 325 in the ^HUI, although it is just another rendition from a much earlier chart that I have been following for several years. The chart is nothing more than a comparison chart between Yamana Gold and the ^HUI GoldBug Index. I've used just this chart to make 100% of my calls in the ^HUI since 2018. Why? and How? Well, as I alluded to in an earlier comment...the goldbugs have been trodding on rich soil for years now AND I do mean years. I just don't think they realize how fertile the ground is under their feet. Yet. It is my intention as we go forward to start yanking on that curtain harder and harder until everyone gets a good eyeful as to what is hiding on the other side. Today...is just a tug, but I assure you...it's a tug in the right direction. After all...you know the old saying. "You can't trade, what you can't SEE." The above chart is nothing more than a clip of the right side of the "bottoming pattern" in the Yamana(YRI.to) chart during the 2002 to 2003 period. At the time, those who were bullish on gold and gold stocks were quite excited as we came out of the whole we'd dug ourselves into at the end of 2000. I remember the ^HUI had finally bottomed at 35 or 36. Then rallied just about through the first half of 2001. Although...it soon flipped into a consolidation pattern and many of the new goldbugs were losing faith. Just as we lost a few...the advance that came out that consolidation made many wealthy almost overnight. It was there that many guys were hooked. Goldbugs were becoming numerous. Now...during the next consolidation...the guys who came in late were getting shaken around because the peaks were higher, but the troughs...well, they were troughs alright. A lot of guys couldn't take it. That is where I introduced...this "bottoming pattern". This pattern is the most bullish pattern I know. If I was young again...I'd just be hunting for these and then hold on for dear life. I've ridden enough of them to know. It just doesn't get any better than this... The first chart I'll post here is nothing more than a plain comparison chart. This comparison is between Yamana's major low in 2002-2003 to the current Weekly Chart in the ^HUI. And...I'd actually like you to take a copy of this chart in its naked form and save it for later comparison when you're hunting for your own vehicles. Now... I'm going to post the chart again and add 4 simple blue circles at the peaks in both issues. The two blue circles in the chart are representing the two peaks that must be present for the pattern to be valid. Study the formations between the two peaks carefully. Let's add three rules(with explanations). 1) It doesn't matter which peak is higher. The patterns can be left or right side dominant. 2) The pattern doesn't have to match - completely and in some case. Not at all. This might sound a little strange at first, but once you understand the pattern and start finding these all over the place...I think you'll get it. I will mention...there are several known varieties(all will be covered). When pattern matching...the validity will usually be higher if you have at least a right or left pattern match. Although...in some issues. There is a solid reason why the patterns don't match and you need to discover why. Think alternation... 3) The ensuing decline from the right peak does NOT have to make a new low. Although...it usually does. You really have to take each individual issue and "weigh it against itself" before coming to any conclusions. If you can't discover how the issue operates. Here is my own personal rule. If it is NOT a leading issue in its industry(or hated by the establishment), expect a lower low. You need to study this pattern between the peaks. Every peak and valley. As mentioned...there are several forms of this bottoming pattern. Over time. I will cover them all. Not to mention...'alternating' patterns WITHIN the pattern. Ok...now let's go back to the beginning where my analysis of the current advance(and decline) of the ^HUI was borne from. We'll post the same chart again, but add the circles from the original chart. This...is where my analysis of the ^HUI was derived from. A simple chart from Yamana that is 20 years old. Then...I did exactly what I taught my prior students to do...I played the ^HUI against itself as demonstrated in "Can you BELIEVE it Now" from June 24, 2022. There is nothing more potent than learning to "play an issue against itself" in any arsenal. If you could put this one arrow in your quiver...you'd never need another one. Think all of this over. Don't rush yourself...give it some time. Perhaps, after you've thought about this and studied for awhile you can really start to see the market through my eyes? Take a look at the SLV again... Here is another chart. This time...CCJ. this is another variety of the pattern, different outcome too. Although, now you could begin to see why the insiders were buying platinum, yellowcake and copper. Although, it would have been nice if they mentioned this to the retail guys before the shares exploded? No worries...as you can see below, you get another shot. "This pattern once understood, will warn you of incoming super cycles". And for those will keen skills of observation. Yes...I AM teaching you to measure from the center to the outside. Wait until I start adding time/price to the mix. Then it gets real fun... One step at a time. Patience in all things... Best Regards, The Nutty Ol' CoinGuy oh...and... Anyone remember the run in BHP? Now...take another look at CCJ. Can you SEE it?
  20. I realize many of you have zero background in technical analysis and rely primarily on fundamentals. Although, even a staunch fundamentalist will entertain a chart here and there that has been drawn up by economists and the occasional statistician. On this very forum, I’ve seen a couple of fellow forum members draw up a chart or two. So I know some of you have exposure to technical analysis. Perhaps, through Elliott Wave or E&M? Typically these forms rely on utilizing indicators, wave counts or moving averages. I tend to avoid relying on this form of analysis and one of the first things I used to teach a new student is to turn off the indicators...and use nothing more than...instinct. Why? I equate using Indicators to a form of passivity that should be avoided. Much like watching television. And yes...there is a better way. When you turn off the indicators...you turn ON something else. Now...for those who do deem themselves to be technical anal cysts or budding technical anal cysts...and are watching the “standard” indicators I’d imagine you’re viewing those positive divergences in the MACD(daily) and the Dover Sole condition we’re currently in and would conclude - The bottom is in. While, we do have to respect the “Low with Nefarious Origins” from the 13th(more on that later)...let us not let this low lull us into any form of complacency. Lest I start to feel the need to remind you where crashes are born? While I won’t use any indicators...I will occasionally use a wave count to make a point and I’m actually a fan of moving averages “to confirm turns”. Because, I do consider them to be “part of” a valuable form of analysis that has proven itself to work over time – consistently. With that said… Take a look at this chart. I’ve kept it simple because I don’t want to lose anyone. Other people collect stamps...I collect bubbles. Do you have any idea how rare it is for the 50 week MA to turn this hard into the 200? It's every bit as strong, if not stronger than 2000 and/or 2008. Then...add the 50 crossing the 75(Black Arrow) just after the retest of the 50 from underneath? As far as I know that IS the entry sequence into a stock market crash and I don't know of anyone who has studied this topic more than I have. My work(research) on this subject is generational in nature. I have literally spent my life studying the "patterned behavior" of stock market bubbles. I know by now you’re probably sick & tired of looking at my 2008 reference charts...so this time I used a different time frame for comparison. Although, with each “major” bear market post '29...the story has always been the same no matter what time frame you're using. The only exception is '37. Where when you retested the 50 from underneath you immediately crashed and then bottomed before the 50/75 cross. Also, please note...I said major. '87 doesn't qualify. From my perspective... Going forward from the 13th of October low, you want to watch the advance closely as we head into the 35 week MA(3900 area). At this level...the market should start to get dizzy because it’s being choked from several different directions. Since we spiked 100 points below 3600 to fulfill the 400 point H&S, you do need to allow for another 100 point spike on the high end. This is why I put a band(+10/-10) around the 35 week moving average. If it overcomes, THEN we can begin to investigate other possibilities, but frankly...as I’m sitting here...nothing is standing out to me that isn’t what should be occurring within this time frame of a typical bear market decline. If the textbook is talking...I would like to see this not head into a peak too quickly, a rally that would last a month or so would be ideal. Although, from experience....just like you're not guaranteed a tomorrow...you're not guaranteed a rally here either. Because my gut has been telling me for days that something is already broken. In closing... Since we talked about the 50 crossing the 75, let’s talk about when the 50 crosses the 200... "Within two weeks" after this takes place, you’ll look around...and ol’ TCG will simply. be. gone. Why? Well, as you know...pig’s get slaughtered...and I’m a shark. Best, The CoinGuy oh...and... Exactly how many weeks are there between February 24th and October 13th?
  21. I go to the hospital for a little outpatient procedure and come back home...to this. Must have been an interesting day. I'm hearing tales of a pivot? The pivot was the Treasury announcement...this as far as I'm gathering is just follow-thru. It was this...or meltdown I'd imagine. No worries...everyone is on the right side of the trade and all is well. Go. Back. To. Sleep... The ^XOI exploded over my nice little doji. Above 1804-5, and I'll actually be asking for coal in my stocking... EDIT: I've looked over the SPX. If you take out the high from the 18th...that would confirm the C leg of a "at a minimum" 1:1 ABC to 3900. 3500 to 3750, pullback to 3650 and tack on another 250 points. 27th is the only other small window I see in my database. New Moon on the 25th. Best, TCG oh...and... Before I left this morning, I took a snapshot of Doc's live feed at 7 AM CST. I'll work on those charts over the weekend.
  22. If you listen hard enough, you might just hear the standing ovation from Nebraska. Hence my ever repeating comment on inversions, or as Doc puts his finger right on it...misdirection. The most used tool in their arsenal... As I've mentioned...I normally don't watch bonds or bond yields(or currencies) on a daily basis. I have enough on my plate as it is. I also have an expert sitting several feet to my right who is at my beck and call 24/7 if need be. Although. With that said...I saw Doc's 10yr chart yesterday and at first glance I was thinking to myself that looks an awful lot like a cup and saucer pattern coming out of that hole in the 10 year, then I started seeing the reverse H&S patterns and I thought I might need to take a closer look. Now...by closer look I mean the Monthly Chart. For me...that's where it all starts. So I pulled up the Monthly back to the 1980 peak. The first thing I saw was this... And frankly...it's the last thing I need to see. Although...I will add the Weekly Chart here for a tad closer look. So...why am I drawing one line under this particular area of the chart? Charts are incoming. I believe after viewing those charts...no explanation will be necessary. No explanation will be necessary in the ^HUI and Silver either... Best, TCG
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