I'll repeat myself...
Still...just waiting for the news.
Nothing to see here...except noise.
That is...unless the Nasdaq cracks the larger swing point from Pi day.
I will mention...AMD GAPPED(100) this area as it broke down.
Well Doc...that's quite obviously the point here.
The timing seems off unless the new owner is taking the election into consideration?
That's why I'm giving it six months...for this to resolve itself.
Then I'll take another look.
Looks like Musk is walking away with TWTR.
I'll just say...if it can't hold 50, it will test 32.
Personally speaking...looked like a decent short candidate before the interference.
Looks just as good now.
I simply can't understand the timing. Who buys tech in a freefall?
I'm going to come back to this on October 25, 2022.
Maybe I'll have it all figured out by then, but somehow...I'm doubting that.
Sounds about the same story that would echo from my neck of the woods. Although...toned down a bit. We're smack in the middle of flyover country, a bit more conservative perhaps.
This weekend is the big show.
I'm going out of town early...I grew up with these people. It's turned into a real spectacle. From my point of view...it's just gotten embarrassing, I'd like it to stop.
With A shares at half a million apiece...that won't be anytime soon I'm afraid.
When you take a look at the chart and I'll be dissecting it this week. Please remember the other charts I've posted. 1x/1x when you GAP into a formation after the plunge...you should expect a GAP out of the formation as well. NFLX is a perfect example of this.
Facebook is in "pause to build cause" mode.
Perhaps...they're just waiting for news too?
A couple of questions.
What did Facebook do right before it gapped down? Might want to take note of that.
Notice the twin peaks at the top of the formation. Have you seen this before?
When it's all said and done...you'll not want to see this ever again.
If I said...
PYPL is leading NFLX is leading FB is leading AMD(and NVDA) is leading MSFT is leading the Nasdaq...it might make sense is some strange way?
Almost like a Choo-Choo train into a...into a...black hole as Doc put it?
From my view on the perch...
I'm actually just sitting here, waiting. Although, ph's comment about fresh portfolio manager meat is making me a little hungry. I'm still just waiting...
For the news.
The Bad News.
The Bad News?
Yeah. The news that's going to take us over the cliff, jump the wire, break the bands, and toss the margins.
Nothing else really matters to me.
Who needs more information...
Just thought I'd mention oil since it's taking a beating this morning. It had been been pushing up against long-term resistance at 1600 in the ^XOI.
A "weaponized" dollar into a stock market decline. There's a first for everything I suppose...
For me, cash is a solid position "right now", but there may be better more suitable options - later.
I can only short so much.
As I mentioned...I believe a person slowing down their decisions here is the best thing they can do for themselves. From my perspective...this will not be a one and done, but will unfold in several steps.
I plan on taking one step at a time...and I will have outlined my approach to each step(ad nauseum) before we actually reach our destination.
What's the use of ANY information, if you're too late to the party to take advantage...
DJI now down over 400.
A couple of hundred more...let's say 33,200 and I'd like to see it slow down some and build cause above the swing point...then crack it hard. Even a failure after the crack and a retest would be nice and not out of the ordinary. Then a plunge or two just to make sure people are paying attention.
Ah...we'll see soon enough.
For the moment, I've been watching MSFT(I do NOT like this company) just sitting above the swing point resting. I'm very curious as to what is on the mind of MSFT this week. Why? Because the Nasdaq will shortly follow. They're traveling together like peas in the same pod.
I guess I should mention...
A "small" window opens on Wednesday the 28th and closes Friday evening. Everytime I say it's a small window, meaning perhaps...not a lot of energy I seem to get taken to task so...I'll just say this instead. When windows are open. The energy will come right as it opens, hard spike at dead center...or as it's withering to the end. There's really nothing else to it.
The next one is May 9-10.
I apologize for not mentioning you...I thought that would be a given. Smile.
These other characters...I've never heard of.
I actually had to pull my assistant off his bond research last week and have him peruse the internet looking for "credible" bear names. He came up with one former anal cyst who used to be interviewed on the old CNBC here and there back in prior bear markets. He felt the name and his comments toward the market were worthy of a mention. Although he felt the gentlemen was hedging his statements.
I guess it's at this point I should mention, I have always insulated myself from ANY financial punditry. The same as my father before me. I also don't read newspapers. Television? No...all of my properties are television free. Surely you. No. I do nothing associated with markets - at all.
In fact...I use ZERO actual technical analysis when determining where I feel the market is headed. I use a homebrew method that given enough practice eventually allows you to just put the charts down and enjoy life before it passes you by.
The charts I post are just ART. Pictures I come up with as representations of my own thoughts toward the past, present, and future.
Nothing more than...an expression in time.
I'm a poet and a dreamer Doc.
There is plenty to comment on, everywhere you look there is something tantalizing to the eyes. Gold and silver(and oil) are behind the woodshed and I hear screaming. The currencies and bonds are at the edges(of insanity), the market is heading towards a very high cliff where many participants have already taken the plunge into huge gaps, huge declines, and huge margin calls. To be forthright, at the swing...I expect a pause, but I also expect...a plunge. I can go on and on here...it would never end.
This morning...I'm going to pass on all of it and talk about something entirely different.
In 2000 and 2008...eventually the stick save came. It will come this time too, but from my read of the tea leaves...it's going to be a double edged sword that exacerbates the issue. Why? Political leverage will demand it. I personally believe the stick save at the bottom we're racing towards at break neck speed is what is going to exacerbate the economy into a new depression. Oh...it'll look good for a time. Perhaps, they'll even toss in a little stimmy as well. Maybe a half-hearted attempt at some form of UBI? I guess we'll have to wait and see.
It's still early in the game, but to be truthful...it's a bit later than most can imagine. In the face of collapses within the Nasdaq that are beginning to rival 2000...I haven't heard many(if any) bear calls - AT ALL.
Frankly, I find this disconcerting AND comforting at the same time.
This weekend I spent my time deep diving into the Nasdaq and frankly speaking...what I found is a literal nightmare unfolding. Over the next few days/weeks. I am going to start dissecting different stocks in the tech sector and bringing forward some behavior patterns that I see present over most of the issues that I've looked at. It will help you going forward when you know what to look for in an issue that you're interested in.
Twin peaks, double gaps...oh, the fun we'll have.
I will also be expanding on the idea of "measuring from the center" and begin to add dates(and comments) to the charts posted. Please pay attention to the comments...I measure my words carefully. You'll begin to see repetition...you'll also begin to see intent. Huh? Again. Please pay attention, every single date I list is working towards an end.
What end is that?
Putting a sharp arrow into your quiver that no one can take away from you.
Human behavior? Never changes...
If you haven't read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". It's worth a look.
Have a good weekend everyone, see you on Monday.
I'll park this right here.
You can't trade it...if you can't SEE it.
Did my lessons on inversions fall on deaf ears? Plenty of inversions here. Always study those inversions. This chart is truly a piece of ART. Can you see the rev H&S hiding on the left side of the CAT formation? The head is centered on 10.06.21 if that will help you.
MK. No, only the ^DJI. The ^GSPC has its own rhythm. Each issue has their own heartbeat.
I really like what I'm seeing here. Again. Would prefer to be back above the swing at the close.
Why? Because THIS is the rally, if you catch my drift. We build cause at the swing and it will crack hard.
EDIT: They're stumbling. This is a fight right here and now...
The ^HUI is doing the same. It want's 300, then 290. It's pausing just above the 3.29 doji.
BTC? - Stick save for now...stay tuned.
I saw that...looks like they're having a bit of trouble. The big guns like the last 1/2 hour, maybe a government sized pocketbook might turn the tide? Again...I'd like to see them park it above that swing on the DJI.
In the meantime. My old neighbor and friend. 253k is the measurement of the first decline.
CAT. If it looks like a ----- and smells like a -----, then it's probably a -----.
You know I am getting a touch of Ol's Timers at my age. Can you remind me what day crashes start on?
Nothing to see here, just move along now. No gawkers....keep moving.
This is reminding me of the good ol' days.
I must say it again.
The Greatest Bear Market in History.
No one showed up.
When they do.
I'll be long gone...
I'm seeing an attempt at more downside.
Bands? We don't need no stinking BANDS!
The Dow is sitting right at it's April 12 swing. If it pops...further acceleration could ensue.
It's now been penetrated. As of 1:15 P.M. CST, I'm seeing no acceleration. The trading band has become real tight, could be a small reversal right here. IF they don't accelerate, they may attempt to park it above the swing point. If It builds cause there....then an easy 1k+ crash is coming.
No comments on SH until it has cracked 15.25 and held a retest or two. Then...I'll be talking about upside targets. Until then 15.25 is your number.
If I was forced to vote for a moonshot to a million or a trip to zero...I'd probably take the downside slide. A million in BTC would disrupt the current financial order standard deviations from the status quo. The government won't stand for this type of competition. There is no honor among thieves. Even at 100k...they'd be screaming for more regulation AND heavy taxation. Let alone a million.
Although, left to my own devices...
I'm a strict technician...fundamentals don't come into play in my own analysis. Period.
Emotions? They're for the other guy.
I just roll my nictitating membrane back and...take my shot.
I'll leave those with fancy degrees to argue the particulars.
I see 10k(+1k/-5k) in my head and I'm rolling with it. What is the analysis that led me this conclusion?
Doc we've taken out the 4.18 swing on the SPX. This is starting to look like "the beginning" of a direct assault on 4200 here?
"The Nasdaq is trading one step ahead of the SPX".
Let the pattern do the heavy lifting...THIS. Is where behavioral analysis shines.
Every student I taught ended up having to deal with one problem...
You know Doc...
Everyone is probably watching the Broad Markets right now, but the real story could be unfolding in BTC.
You've got VOL flowing in and we're sitting right at the "do it or don't" line into the abyss.
Yet another issue at the Margins? Hmm.
Coming off the top from 2020, it appears 35 point tranches are becoming common in the TLT? I'm seeing symmetry here. I normally follow the ^TNX and UUP, but I'll add the TLT to my current rotation. The long term channel in the ^TNX is being pressed hard and we're at 27 in the UUP. The point where a huge burst was released at the March 2020 lows in the stock market.
I don't know about you...but this is quite exciting stuff.
Doc, In your article you mentioned, "bottom of the bands". From my own terminology, I'd probably use "at the margins". Same thing...
With that said.
It's at the margins where the big mistakes are made.
Let's speak of those Generals...
NFLX and PYPL have been taken behind the woodshed. Twice. ARKK, well..that ship sunk. It's a virtual bitch slap without an off switch. The hits just keep coming.
Although, to me...none of that is really all that interesting. I'm more interested in the actual "tech" Generals. AMD has already cracked the swing point and I'm using it as a leading proxy for the NDX. It's leading it...ever so slightly. NVDA just cracked the swing yesterday. WDC's current formation is a strong sign of weakness, this last curl? Is screaming...I want to plunge. You'll see the same formation in NFLX right before the $100 hit.
I could literally sit here and talk about stocks that are plunging until the lunch hour and still not crack the surface.
Although...I think I'd prefer to just keep things simple.
"If the current decline in the DJI sticks. It's confirming our experience from yesterday and could very well accelerate."
And I thought you were a humble man. Smile. Actually, I agree with your statement...your calls on the market have always been a little "scary" accurate in the short term. Almost too good. Dead on the money from my perspective and I can tell it's only gotten better with age.
Whoever is paying you is probably getting more than their money's worth...
Here's a simple little chart. These are typical BTTB's being superseded and then becoming resistance. From my perspective.
Although, when I'm viewing a chart I'm looking at multiple time frames to ascertain my target areas. I'm not a short-term investor as mentioned. Preferred time frame 18 months and up, although will scale down to 6 months for trades. Nothing shorter term than 6 months. Too much risk vs. reward.
I looked over my charts at the close.
That's a serious candle we left in the DJI on the daily.
Although..."One day does not a new trend make".
We need confirmation(like the ^HUI just gave us)...
Here's to a "Superseded Tomorrow".
The Nasdaq cleared its swing from 4.18, I'd imagine a Pi day retest is in the shorter term cards.
Since it's been hot news.
I want to mention NFLX, I normally don't mention individual issues...but I think you'll find this interesting. Everyone knows about the news from last night and that huge gap from today. It's not the first gap down either? It's the second.
Now...it might pay to go have a look at PYPL(the canary in the coal mine) and start looking at those dual gaps.
PYPL is leading NFLX downtown.
I'll post a comparison chart of the two the first chance I get...
For now: The center island is used for measurement purposes much like the recent chart of the GLD I posted. This time though you don't have one burst of energy in the middle of the chart...you have two bursts of energy. One as you enter the formation and one as you leave.
Here is the example in the GLD.
Please remember. PYPL is a proxy to some degree(meaning percentage decline possibility) as to what you could be looking at in the overall broad market. If that doesn't scare you...well, it scares me.
Doc, I'm putting a copy of that chart in my archives.
I kind of like Jimi's interpretation, so I'm going to forego the asspounding title.
Although, both are rather befitting.
It does look like your typical BTTB to me.
"Back to the Breakout" area as a retest before consolidation...
^HUI is sporting just about a 5.5% hit today.
Note the symmetry. The head...is at the 3.29 reversal? You're within 20 day windows either side for a "one month, 10 day pattern".